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Progress and problems of POP modelling

Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland. Progress and problems of POP modelling. Prof. Victor Shatalov. Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East of EMEP. Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East.

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Progress and problems of POP modelling

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  1. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Progress and problems of POP modelling Prof. Victor Shatalov Meteorological Synthesizing Centre-East of EMEP Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  2. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Work-plan elements 1. Regional and hemispheric model development • 2. Evaluation of: • Concentration and deposition fields • Long-term trends • Transboundary transport 3. Model validation 4. Co-operation with countries and organizations 5. Evaluation of new substances Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  3. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development List of chemicals • PAHs • PCBs • Lindane (-HCH) • HCB • PCDD/Fs Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  4. Group Selected Indicator compound PCBs 7 congeners PCB-153 PCDD/Fs 8 congeners 2,3,4,7,8-PeCDF Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development POP physical-chemical properties PAHs, PCBs, PCDD/Fs: more than 200 compounds each Selection of priority congeners for modelling. Details in a number of EMEP/MSC-E Technical Notes Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  5. Persistence in air and sea - long-range • Large accumulation capacities and re-emission ability - multicompartment • Relatively low rates of exchange between air and underlying surface – long-term Multicompartment long-term modelling on regional and hemispheric/global scales Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development Peculiarities of POP modelling Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  6. Model input Meteorological data Emissions POP properties MSCE-POP Model Measurements Spatial distribution Long-term trends Transboundary transport New substances Model output Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development General scheme Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  7. Spatial coverage: Spatial resolution: EMEP region 50x50 km, 150x150 km Northern Hemisphere 2.5x2.5°, 1x1° Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model development MSCE-POP multicompartment model Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  8. Air, ng/m3 Soil, ng/g Seawater, ng/m3 Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Concentration levels in media HCB concentrations in media, 1998 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  9. g-HCH air concentrations for 1990, ng/m3 Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Long-range transport and hemispheric modelling Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  10. About 20-fold emission reduction Only about 1.5-fold soil concentration reduction Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Long-term trends (1970 – 1998) PCDD/F emissions and soil concentrations in Germany Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  11. T1/2 = 6.6 yr Multimedia clearance times (T1/2): 6.6 years 16 years Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Media response to emission reduction PCB contamination of environmental media Scenario: Emissions = 0 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  12. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model output Transboundary transport Deposition flux, g/km2/y B[a]P deposition from Poland in 1998 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  13. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Model validation Comparison with measurements PCB-153 mean annual air concentrations, ng/m3 About 75%: within a factor of 3 Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  14. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Co-operation with national experts • Interpretation of modelling/ measurement results • Comparison of different modelling approaches • Joint EMEP reports and publications Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  15. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Review of MSC-E activities • Reported: • WMO/EMEP Workshop (Moscow, 1996) • AMAP Workshop (Bergen, 1998) • MEPOP Workshop (Hamburg, 1998) • WMO/EMEP/UNEP Workshop (Geneva, 1999) • EUROTRAC-2000 Symposium (Garmish-Partenkirchen, 2000) • OECD/UNEP Workshop (Ottawa, 2001) • Published: • EUROTRAC Newsletter • Environ. Sci. Pollut. Res. Internet: www.emep.int, www.msceast.org Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  16. EMEP Status report POP transport and behavior in the environment, EMEP report 4/2002 EMEP/MSC-E Technical Notes • PAHs: physical-chemical properties • POP behavior in soil Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland 2002 publications Background Document includes short summary on: Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  17. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Conclusions Progress achieved • Profound studies of POP phys.-chem. properties. • Model description of POP behavior in air, soil, seawater, vegetation. • Development of pilot version of POP multicompartment models. Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  18. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Conclusions Modelling results for the EMEP region (B[a]P, PCB, PCDD/F, -HCH and HCB): • Distribution between environmental compartments • Spatial distribution of pollution • Long-term trends • Media response for emission reduction for PCBs and PCDD/Fs • Transboundary transport for B[a]P Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

  19. Third meeting of the Task Force on Measurements and Modelling, March 19 – 22, 2002, Geneva, Switzerland Conclusions Model validation: • Reasonable agreement with measurements • Uncertainty and sensitivity studies (emissions!) • POP model intercomparison study Further activities: • Assessment of POP transport on hemispheric scale • Evaluation of new substances • Contributions to effects-based approach Meteorological Synthesizing Centre - East

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