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Why Are There Wars? Understanding the Causes of Conflict

This chapter explores the reasons behind wars, including failed bargains, incomplete information, commitment problems, and indivisibility. It also examines whether wars have become obsolete.

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Why Are There Wars? Understanding the Causes of Conflict

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  1. World Politics: Interests, Interactions, InstitutionsFourth EditionJeffrey A. Frieden, David A. Lake, Kenneth A. Schultz Chapter 3: Why Are There Wars?

  2. Why Are There Wars? What states fight over War as outcome of a failed bargain War from incomplete information War from commitment problems War from indivisibility Have wars become obsolete?

  3. Why Is There So Much Peace in the World? Most countries are at peace most of the time. American deaths from • 9/11: 2,996 • Terrorism: a few dozen per year • Iraq War: 4,493 • Murder, average year: 16,121 • Car accidents, average year: 33,804 • Accidental falls, average year: 30,208

  4. The Percentage of States Involved in Interstate War per Year, 1820–2017

  5. War Is Puzzling War is costly. The costs include blood and treasure. States would rather get what they want without going to war. “In war, the aggressor is always peace-loving; he would prefer to take over our country unopposed.” —Karlvon Clausewitz

  6. Why Are There Wars? – What states fight over What states fight over

  7. What States Fight Over • Territory

  8. What States Fight Over: Divisions • National policy • Regime type • Ethnic or religious divisions

  9. Why Are There Wars? – War as outcome of a failed bargain 2. War as outcome of a failed bargain

  10. War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain Alternative explanations for war Anarchy Misperception Domestic politics

  11. War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain: Bargaining Bargaining Crisis bargaining Coercive diplomacy “Do what I ask or else!”

  12. Bargaining and the Status Quo

  13. War as Outcome of a Failed Bargain: A Model of War

  14. A Model of War: Fertile Farmland

  15. A Model of War: Fertile Farmland 2 The object of contention (the green line) can be anything that states are in conflict over.

  16. A Model of War: Borders

  17. A Model of War: Costs of Fighting

  18. A Model of War: Net Value of Fighting

  19. A Model of War: Bargaining Range

  20. A Model of War: A New Border

  21. A Model of War: Negotiated Settlement For any A and B, if • war is costly, and • the object of contention is divisible, then there is always at least one negotiated settlement that A and B will both prefer to war.

  22. Varieties of Coercive Bargaining Threats to deter Threats to compel

  23. Coercive Bargaining

  24. Core Puzzle Given the costs associated with war, why does crisis bargaining sometimes fail to achieve a peaceful solution?

  25. Why Are There Wars? – War from incomplete information 3. War from incomplete information

  26. War from Incomplete Information: Two Bargaining Mistakes War from incomplete information leads to two bargaining mistakes: • Yielding too little • Demanding too much

  27. War from Incomplete Information: Incentives to Misrepresent Incentives to misrepresent • May seek to appear weaker or stronger • May want to keep adversary guessing

  28. War from Incomplete Information

  29. Bluffing

  30. Bluffing part 2

  31. Bluffing part 3

  32. War from Incomplete Information Communicating resolve • Brinkmanship • Tying hands • Paying for power

  33. War from Incomplete Information: Brinkmanship Communicating resolve • Brinkmanship • Tying hands • Paying for power

  34. Brinkmanship: The Cuban Missile Crisis

  35. War from Incomplete Information: Tying Hands Communicating resolve • Brinkmanship • Tying hands • Paying for power

  36. War from Incomplete Information: Paying for Power Communicating resolve • Brinkmanship • Tying hands • Paying for power

  37. Why Are There Wars? – War from commitment problems 4. War from commitment problems

  38. War from Commitment Problems What if you find a settlement in the bargaining range? Can you trust your adversary to honor a deal?

  39. War from Commitment Problems part 2 Bargaining over the future Preventive war Preemptive war (war in response to first-strike advantages)

  40. War from Commitment Problems: The East China Sea

  41. War from Commitment Problems: Preventative War Preventive war • Power shift: even if states agree to a deal in the bargaining range now, the rising power may be tempted to use its power to revise the deal later.

  42. Bargaining and Shifting Power

  43. Bargaining and Shifting Power part 2

  44. Bargaining and First-Strike Advantages

  45. War from Commitment Problems: World War 1

  46. War from Commitment Problems: The Duration of Interstate Wars

  47. Why Are There Wars? – Wars from indivisibility 5. War from indivisibility

  48. War from Indivisibility Indivisibility can be socially constructed. Claims of indivisibility may be more strategic. Allegedly “indivisible” goods may well be divisible after all.

  49. Dividing Apparently Indivisible Goods

  50. Why Are There Wars? – Have wars become obsolete? 6. Have wars become obsolete?

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