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Enrique Rosero , L. E. Gulden, Z.-L. Yang, G.-Y. Niu, F. Chen, K. Mitchell, D.J. Gochis and H. Wei

Framework for objective evaluation of improved hydrological representations in the Community Noah Land Surface Model ̶ Calibration of standard Noah LSM using the IHOP data set and future work ̶ -. Enrique Rosero ,

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Enrique Rosero , L. E. Gulden, Z.-L. Yang, G.-Y. Niu, F. Chen, K. Mitchell, D.J. Gochis and H. Wei

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  1. Framework for objective evaluation of improved hydrological representations in the Community Noah Land Surface Model ̶ Calibration of standard Noah LSM using the IHOP data set and future work ̶- Enrique Rosero, L. E. Gulden, Z.-L. Yang, G.-Y. Niu, F. Chen, K. Mitchell, D.J. Gochis and H. Wei Teleconference NCEP/EMC NCAR/RAP NASA/HSB OHD/NWS JSG/UT-Austin 20 March 2007

  2. Site 1: Veg 11 Soil 7 Site 2: Veg 7 Soil 7 Site 3: Veg 9 Soil 4 Point Validation: Hypothesis: increasing realism yields a model less sensitive to choice of parameters Successively estimation of parameters for noah-standard, noah-dv, noah-gw, and noah-dvgw. Photos: Fei Chen IHOP02, Western Track NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 1

  3. Defaults Calibrated Model + Data Uncertainty Model + Data + Parameter Uncertainty NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 2

  4. Default Calibration corrects bias in Qh; consequent minor improvement in Qg and STC(1) NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 3

  5. Calibration alone can not resolve shortcomings observed in Qle and SMC(1) NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 4

  6. Default -- Best Qh - Best Qle - Observation o Best SMC - Calibrated Noah-STD Site 1 – Day of the year 2002 NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 5

  7. Default -- Observation o Calibrated Noah-STD Site 2 – Day of the year 2002 NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 6

  8. Default -- Observation o Calibrated Noah-STD Site 3 – Day of the year 2002 NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 7

  9. So far offline multi-objective point calibration tells us: Model error remains the major component of the total uncertainty. The improvement gained by calibration is marginal. Issues related to overestimation of sensible heat flux can be ‘resolved’ with optimal parameters. Those, in turn, determine poor simulations of latent heat flux and soil moisture. Structural changes in the model are necessary to address adequate representation of evaporation right after precipitation events and soil moisture storage. A framework is laid out to assess in optimal conditions the real contribution of the enhancements. Remains to be seen if the added degrees of freedom (complexity) can be resolved. NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 8

  10. Observations: MODIS, Fluxnet Error function Error function Parameters Error function Model Run Land-surface characteristics Meteorological Forcing Catchment and Continental scale : Use runoff as an integrator of the catchment response. Test case DMIP-II. Develop parallel algorithm to perform CONUS-scale calibration for new noah+ parameters. Plenty of work underway Modified after Matsui et al., 2006 NCEP/NCAR/NASA/UT –Telecon 03.20.07 – ER 9

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