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Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY

THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts. Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY. U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s. EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3]. U.S. ONR/NSF TCS-08

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Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY

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  1. THORPEX-Pacific Asian Regional Campaign/Tropical Cyclone Structure-08 Experiments and Collaborative Efforts Upgraded Russian Radiosonde Network for IPY U.S. (NOAA) Winter NOAA G-4 and Air Force C-130s EU, US, Japan, Korea, Canada [DLR Falcon, NRL P-3] U.S. ONR/NSF TCS-08 [NRL P-3, WC-130] PROBEX TH08 WMO WCRP/WWRP Asian/Indian Monsoon Typhoon Landfall SoWMex Japan Palau

  2. THORPEX Pacific Asian Regional Campaign (T-PARC)/ Tropical Cyclone Structure-2008 • August-September 2008 • Initial motivation from Asian and North American Regional Committees with significant EU participation and financial contribution • Asian societal impacts from heavy rainfall, typhoon and extratropical transition (ET) with research interests in: • tropical cyclone formation • intensification • Motion/track • decay and/or ET • North American societal impacts from downstream effects of Asian and Western Pacific high-impact weather with research interests in • tropical and midlatitude predictability • tropical cyclones, • ET • intense extratropical cyclogenesis • International Collaborators: U.S. (NSF, ONR), Germany, Japan, China, South Korea, Canada, France, U.K., Taiwan

  3. Forecast Uncertainty At Recurvature and During ET Results in Major Societal Impacts for East Asia TY Tokage, October 2004 Tracks from the JMA ensemble prediction system Tracks supplied by Dr. T. Nakazawa

  4. Adaptive observations and plane sequencing NRL Singular vector sensitivity for TY Man-Yi (2007) SV Graphic supplied by Dr.Carolyn Reynolds, NRL Monterey

  5. THORPEX Working Group on Predictability and Dynamical Processes Interest Group 4: The Impact of Extratropical Transition on the Downstream Midlatitude Predictability Sarah Jones1 and Patrick Harr21Universitat Karlsruhe 2Naval Postgraduate School GFS ensemble members +00 0000 UTC 16 Sep 2003 500 hPa height (m) at a 240 m interval Hurricane Isabel GFS 500 hPa ensemble +108 h VT 1200 UTC 20 Sep 03

  6. MOTIVATION: IMPROVED WEATHER FORECASTS Impacts on Numerical Model Performance Hurricane Maria TY Saola TY Nabi

  7. 09/09 08/09 07/09 06/09 05/09 04/09 03/09 02/09 01/09 31/08 29/08 30/08 Variability among ensemble members as a measure of the predictability downstream from an ET event

  8. Summary: Major Science Issues • Mechanisms • - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics • - influence of TC structure • - outflow • - diabatic process and their impacts on the midlatitude flow • - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics Midlatitude impactregion Tropical cyclone core region Tropical cyclone-midlatitude interface

  9. Summary: Major Science Issues • Mechanisms • - Sensitivities due to TC/ET characteristics • - influence of TC structure • - outflow • - warm frontogenesis and its impact on the midlatitude flow • - Sensitivities due to midlatitude flow characteristics • Predictability (understanding and assessment) • - Ensemble spread • - Forecast error growth • - Timing/extent/persistence of the downstream response • - Sensitivities to initial conditions and their propagation throughout the forecast cycle • Predictability (increase) • - Predict the reduction in forecast error variance due to supplemental/targeted observations • - test new strategies and observational systems • - Data assimilation strategies, impacts.

  10. 200 hPa meridional wind anomalies Period of TY Nabi and pronounced downstream response Period of TY Saola and lack of a pronounced downstream response

  11. Ex-TY Nabi Ex-TY Saola

  12. High Impact Weather PANDOWAE Predictability ANd Dynamics Of Weather Systems in the Atlantic-European Sector • A new German research group for THORPEX PDP research • Partners: • Sarah Jones (Speaker), Doris Anwender, Ulli Corsmeier, Christoph Kottmeier (University of Karlsruhe / Forschungszentrum Karlsruhe) • Heini Wernli, Volkmar Wirth (University of Mainz) • George Craig, Andreas Dörnbrack, Martin Weissmann (DLR) • Dieter Peters (Leibniz Institute for Atmospheric Physics) • Conny Schwierz (University of Leeds) • 2 Projects contributing directly to T-PARC (despite name of group!): • 1) The impact of extratropical transition on downstream predictability • (PI: Jones, 1 Postdoc, 3 Ph.D. students) • Data denial and data impact studies for ET in collaboration with ECMWF • Investigation of singular vectors targeted on tropical cyclones and their impact on • ECMWF EPS forecasts • TIGGE case studies with high resolution modelling • Idealised modelling and PV inversion • 2) Adaptive observing strategies for active airborne remote-sensing instruments • (PI: Weissmann, 1 Ph.D. student) – see Martin’s talk

  13. 0030 UTC 15 July 2007 TY Man-Yi NRL P-3 all FL 150 OKO – 1 (33oN,141oE) 212 n mi 1 – 2 (30oN, 142.5oE) 225 n mi 2 – 3 (31.5oN, 146oE) 232 n mi 3 – 4 (35oN, 142.5oE) 315 n mi 4 – OKO 185 n mi 1169 n mi Drops at waypoints and 60 n mi intervals RJSM RJTA DLR Falcon Leg 1 1287 n mi TC outflow-Jet Interaction Leg 2: 1414 n mi TC outflow – Jet Interaction NRL P-3 1986 n mi ET Ridge Building, warm frontogenesis RODN WC-130 1787 n mi Decaying TC Core FALCON Mission in two stages with a re-fueling stop at MSJ

  14. DRIFTSONDEReleased from Hawaii Altitude of 20-70 hPa Approximately 7 days to drift over the Phillipine Sea Dropsonde release controlled from Boulder, CO

  15. Driftsonde center, Boulder, CO Okinawa Japan Operations center, Monterey, CA Taiwan Aircraft locations, and aircraft operations centers Driftsonde release, Hawaii Guam Summary T-PARC and collaborating projects constitute a GLOBAL OPERATION

  16. Subtropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 TC Intensification and structure change Recurvature, initiation of ET TC track characteristics, tropical/midlatitude interaction Tropical operating region Driftsonde, NRL P-3, DOTSTAR, WC-130 Tropical Measurements Large-scale circulation, deep convection, monsoon depressions, tropical waves, TC formation T-PARC Components TY Nabi, 29 Aug – 8 Sep, 2005 Midlatitude operating region NRL P-3, FALCON Extratropical Transition (ET – recurvature), Downstream Impacts Japan, Atsugi, NAF ET characteristics, forcing of downstream impacts, tropical/midlatitude interactions, extratropical cyclogenesis Okinawa, Kadena AFB Guam, Andersen AFB

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