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Historic Rolls

James Gillespie’s Primary School: Rising Rolls Marchmont and Sciennes Community Council / James Gillespie’s Parent Council 27 February 2013 Lindsay Glasgow Asset Planning Manager Children and Families. Historic Rolls. Population Aged 5-11 in the City of Edinburgh 1981-2010. Projected Rolls.

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Historic Rolls

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  1. James Gillespie’s Primary School:Rising RollsMarchmont and Sciennes Community Council / James Gillespie’s Parent Council27 February 2013Lindsay GlasgowAsset Planning ManagerChildren and Families

  2. Historic Rolls Population Aged 5-11 in the City of Edinburgh 1981-2010

  3. Projected Rolls CEC Projected Population Aged 5-11 & School Rolls

  4. Projected Rolls • 20% increase between 2012 and 2019 • Currently 25,900 pupils in CEC primary schools • Projected to increase by 5,200 by 2019 • Thereafter plateau, then start falling

  5. Rising Birth Rates Number of Births in the City of Edinburgh 1991-2001

  6. Rising Birth Rates • Number of births has risen since 2004 • First felt in P1 intakes in 2009 • P1 intakes expected to peak in 2015/16 • Total primary roll will peak in 2019

  7. Forecasting Intakes • Large variations at local level; peaks and troughs • No close correlation between births and P1 intakes • Changing trends: • Migration across the city • Housing market influence – less people moving • Private sector influence

  8. Additional Accommodation • Reuse of existing space, with condition upgrade • Additional, permanent classrooms being built at four schools for 2013 • Part of an estate wide project with a menu of four standardised designs

  9. P1 Catchment Numbers at James Gillespie’s Primary School

  10. JGPS catchment numbers • Increase in P1 catchment numbers at school of 69% over 6 years • Catchment numbers have been increasing • Number of placing requests to other schools decreasing

  11. Births and Non Denominational Catchment P1 Intakes

  12. James Gillespie’s 2013 P1 Intake • Catchment registrations currently 81 pupils • May have to create 3rd P1 class this year • Monitor numbers – eg 9 deferrals notified • School would be advised in May of proposed organisation as part of standard placement process

  13. South side area: Births & Catchment Numbers(James Gillespie's, Bruntsfield and South Morningside)

  14. James Gillespie's future intakes Options: • 60 pupils with 3 teachers – preferred option – becomes two classes at P2 • 66 pupils with 3 teachers – becomes two classes at P4 • 75 pupils – three classes at P1; subsequent intake would be 70

  15. Accommodation requirements • 2 classbases in the TUs potentially cover 4 years to deliver a permanent solution • An intake of 75 in 2013 would require 15 classes • An intake of 70 in 2014 would still be contained within 15 classes • An intake of up to 75 in 2015 would require the 16th class • An intake of 70 in 2016 would still be contained within the 16 classes

  16. Permanent solutions • New School to serve area? • Catchment review? • Permanent new accommodation ? • Annexe accommodation? What other ideas do the Parent Council have that they would like explored?

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