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Survey of Property Professionals 2013Q1 Results: Highlights and Market Outlook

This presentation provides information on the results of the Survey of Property Professionals 2013Q1, conducted by the Central Bank of Ireland and the Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland. The survey highlights price expectations, market activity, and market issues in the property industry. Please note that the document should not be publicly quoted or circulated further.

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Survey of Property Professionals 2013Q1 Results: Highlights and Market Outlook

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  1. Central Bank of Ireland/Society of Chartered Surveyors Ireland: Survey of Property Professionals 2013Q1 Results: Circulated June 2013

  2. PLEASE NOTE: THE RESULTS/FINDINGS OF THE SURVEY OF PROPERTY PROFESSIONALS 2013Q ARE PRESENTED WITHIN. THE PURPOSE OF THIS PRESENTATION IS TO PROVIDE INFORMATION TO THOSE WHO PARTICPATED IN THE survey, CENTRAL BANK OF IRELAND STAFF & THE SCSI. we ask that this document not be publicly Quoted or circulated further.

  3. SURVEY HIGHLIGHTS • Price expectations • for the 1st time in the survey, the percentage of participants expecting national prices to fall over the coming year has dropped below 50 per cent, meanwhile the percentage indicating that prices will remain static over the same period has risen • over the 3 year horizon, respondents tend to be more positive with a significant majority anticipating price increases • the outlook for Dublin prices continues to be more optimistic than at the national level, and while there is little consensus on what may happen regional prices over the coming year, the popular view across all regions is that they will be higher in 3 years time • Market activity • over 50 per cent of respondents indicated that they were busier this quarter than last in terms of sales agreed, enquiries from potential purchasers and vendor instructions • FTBs continue to be considered the most active cohort, despite the withdrawal of Mortgage Interest Relief for 1st time buyers • Market issues • in terms of the market issues highlighted, availability of credit remains a chief concern while the sense that prices are at, or at least approaching a floor, is cited by many as a positive

  4. SURVEY 2013Q1 SELECTED RESULTS (PRICE EXPECTATIONS)

  5. SURVEY 2013Q1 vs. SURVEY 2012Q4:CURRENT QUARTER PRICE EXPECTATIONS

  6. SURVEY 2013Q1 vs. SURVEY 2012Q4:+1 QUARTER PRICE EXPECTATIONS

  7. SURVEY 2013Q1 vs. SURVEY 2012Q4:+1 YEAR PRICE EXPECTATIONS

  8. REASONS PROVIDED FOR SHORTER-TERM PRICE EXPECTATIONS • negatives: difficulties obtaining credit, continuing economic uncertainty & job insecurity, introduction of the LPT* & withdrawal of MIR** for FTBs, purchasers fear further falls in prices, extent of emigration, current level of excess supply in certain regions  may be exacerbated by widespread repossessions, vendors unrealistic on asking prices • positives: belief the bottom has been reached, credit conditions improving a little, economy showing signs of stability/some job announcements/progress in public finances having a positive impact on confidence, units more affordable, increased activity of cash buyers, release of pent-up demand, lack of supply in certain areas pushing prices up

  9. SURVEY 2013Q1 vs. SURVEY 2012Q4:+3 YEARS PRICE EXPECTATIONS

  10. REASONS UNDERLYING LONGER-TERM PRICE EXPECTATIONS • negatives: prospect of further harsh budgets, fears of a delay/setback in the economic recovery and/or resolution of banking difficulties which will impact credit availability, continuing emigration, fallout from arrears/insolvency process  potential for a large overhang of stock • positives: existence of a large cohort of the population at household formation age, increased level of investor confidence  expectations that a recovery in the Irish & European economies will take hold, progress made tackling unemployment and debt/insolvency issues, feeling that banking problems will have been addressed and reasonable access to credit restored, improvements in affordability.

  11. +1 YEAR (LHS) & +3 YEARS (RHS) PRICE EXPECTATIONS (SURVEY 2013Q1): NATIONAL VS. DUBLIN

  12. +1 YEAR (LHS) & +3 YEARS (RHS) PRICE EXPECTATIONS (SURVEY 2013Q1):REGIONAL

  13. SURVEY 2013Q1 SELECTED RESULTS (MARKET ACTIVITY)

  14. SURVEY 2013Q1: MARKET ACTIVITY

  15. SURVEY 2013Q1: MARKET ISSUES -SALES PRICES & PURCHASE METHOD

  16. SURVEY 2013Q1: MARKET ISSUES -FAILED TRANSACTIONS & INFLUENCES ON MARKET DEMAND

  17. APPENDIX

  18. LOCATION AND OCCUPATION

  19. MARKET FOCUS AND RESOURCES

  20. IF YOU HAVE ANY COMMENTS/QUERIES ON THESE RESULTS, OR IF YOU ARE NOT INVOLVED IN THE SURVEY AT PRESENT AND YOU WOULD LIKE TO BE IN THE FUTURE - PLEASE CONTACT: GERARD KENNEDY gkennedy@centralbank.ie

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