Ongoing and finalised COM studies on Adaptation to Climate Change

1. Ongoing and finalised COM studies on Adaptation to Climate Change Balázs Horváth European Commission DG Environment 3rd EIONET workshop on Climate Change Impacts, Vulnerability and Adaptation Copenhagen, 30 June 2009

2. White Paper Pillar I: Strengthening the Knowledge Base – an essential step forward • Build on on-going research projects and studies • IPCC AR5 scenarios • 7th FP projects • National research projects, INTERREG etc. • Fill-in gaps with specific projects • Vulnerability indicators: • Preliminary assessment and roadmap for the elaboration of Climate Change vulnerability indicators at regional level • Guidelines/Toolbox for adaptation strategies • Design of guidelines for the elaboration of Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies • Assessment of adaptation policies • Implementation of Land-use modelling: adaptation-related scenarios • Water and adaptation modelling • Objective: provide structure and contents for the EU Clearinghouse • Contact point: Jacques.Delsalle@ec.europa.eu

3. Climate Change Vulnerability Indicators • The project ‘preliminary assessment and roadmap for the elaboration of Climate Change vulnerability indicators at regional level’ aims to: • Collect the existing information on vulnerability indices • Assess the feasibility and provide options for the design of vulnerability indicators, that can be used to assess further EU-wide adaptation policy • Provide a first version of one option for a set of indicators with available data • Assess the options for the further use of this set of indicators for a number of EU policy aims. • 9 months contract (AEA, SEI, IVM, PIK), final report due in Sept 09 • Workshop on 18/6 (Brussels), presentation and minutes available on http://www.ecologic-events.de/climate_adaptation/presentations.htm • Further input expected from 2-3 July expert workshop

4. Guidelines/Toolbox for adaptation strategies • The project “Design of guidelines for the elaboration of Regional Climate Change Adaptation Strategies” aims at: • An inventory of existing regional adaptation strategies (RAS) in the EU MS • A preliminary assessment of the support framework/tools available at EU and MS level with regard to adaptation to climate change • Guidelines on the process for the development of a regional adaptation strategy • 9 months contract (Ecologic, AEA, Alterra, IVM), final report due in Sept 09 • Workshop on 17/6 (Brussels), presentation and minutes available on http://www.ecologic-events.de/climate_adaptation/presentations.htm

5. Land-use modelling: adaptation-related scenarios • On-going service contract (14 months, ending Feb 2010) with Alterra, geonext, Object Vision, Bio IS • Objectives: • Define an integrated land use modelling framework ”EU-ClueScanner”, • Building on experiences with existing modelling systems (SENSOR, SEAMLESS, EURURALIS, ATEAM, PRELUDE, LUMOCAP, etc. • Spatial resolution: 1 km2, Spatial extent: EU27, Temporal extent: 30 years (2000-2030) annual changes, Land use classes: 17 based on CLC2000 • Improve Policy-Science interaction (model as a tool for assessment and communication) • 10 illustrative reference and policy scenario • 1 scenario (X 2 ref cases) looking at land-use implications expected from selected adaptation policy measures • restricted to water management and soil protection as EC-legislation is being prepared for these themes • other issues such as heat stress, agricultural crop choice could be assessed at a later stage • implementation foreseen later this year • Interim workshop to present modelling framework and scenario design on 26 June, Brussels • Results to be presented at a workshop on 12/11/2009, Brussels

6. Water and adaptation modelling • Objective: • assessment of both vulnerability to climate change impacts and adaptation measures with a specific focus on water related impacts and measures, • provision of an integrated analytical platform at a detailed geographical level, giving the basis for the identifications of adaptation measures to be either promoted or prevented at EU level. • Open call for tender on-going • ENV.D.2/SER/2009/0034: http://ec.europa.eu/environment/funding/calls_en.htm

7. Study on the Economics of climate change adaptation in EU coastal areas (2009) • DG MARE commissioned a study which: • Assesses coastal protection policies and climate change adaptation plans and practices in EU coastal areas; • Compiles most recent information about the theoretical cost estimated by models; • Provides extensive empirical information about past, present and foreseen expenditures on coastal protection and adaptation by competent authorities; • Compares theoretical costs against real expenditures and identifies disparities amongst regions (on i.e. vulnerability and costs of adaptation), sources of uncertainty, etc • Analyses costs and benefits, use of public funds

8. The main climate change impacts relevant for coastal zones are flooding and erosion, saline intrusion and freshwater shortage, and the loss of eco-systems To date, studies and reports focus primarily on Sea Level Rise (SLR) Scientific literature estimates the annual adaptation cost to protect Europe’s coastal zones against SLR: $ 0.2 billion and € 5.4 billion (per year). Benefits of early adaptation are clear (PESETA Study). • Europe’s total coastal protection expenditure (1998-2015): € 0.88 billion / year • Close to 85% of total coastal protection expenditure is borne by 5 countries (IT, NL, DE, UK, ES) • More than 60% of the normal coastal protection expenditure is dedicated to the North Sea

9. Europe’s total expenditure € 10.47 billion € 8.1 € 127.5 € 316 € 2.7 € 1.4 € 95 € 10.5 € 3 421 € 1 712 € 117.6 € 1 647 € 353 € 206 € 267 € 1.6 € 462 € 936 € 131 € 18 € 288 Outermost regions € 237 € 89 € 15.4 The Study includes Analysis and detailed information per marine basin, including outermost regions, and per country. More info: http://ec.europa.eu/maritimeaffairs/climate_change_en.html

10. Adaptation of Agriculture to Climate Change • DG AGRI • Jan – Nov 2007 • AEA Environment and Technology (UK) in partnership with Universidad Politecnica of Madrid (ES) • Scope • Impacts, risks and opportunities in EU-27 • Potential adaptation options to increase resilience • Assess policies that may present barrier to adaptation

11. Main conclusions • Boreal, Atlantic and Continental north zones: increased precipitation in winter, decreased in summer; risk of new pests and diseases • Alpine region: temperature increases, impacts on hydrological cycles • Mediterranean zone: reduced water availability, heat and drought stress, increased competition for water resources • Measures can be applied in farm level, because a lot of them are management-related (e.g. change crop rotation)

12. Impacts of Climate Change on European Forests and Options for Adaptation • DG AGRI • Jan – Nov 2008 • European Forest Institute (FI) in partnership with BOKU (AT), INRA, Bordeaux (FR) and AISF (IT) • Scope • Impacts, adaptive capacity, risks and opportunities in EU-27 • Potential adaptation actions to increase resilience • Ongoing and planned adaptation measures in MS

13. Main conclusions • Adaptive capacity is large in the Boreal and Temperate Oceanic regions, but limited in the Mediterranean region • Some measures are well established, but experience is lacking on how tree species respond to rapid changing • Vulnerability assessments are almost completely lacking at national level • There is a need for monitoring and further research Contact: maria.fuentes@ec.europa.eu

14. DG REGIO - Regional Challenges in the Perspective of 2020: Regional Disparities and Future Challenges • Follow-up of the Regions 2020 report http://ec.europa.eu/regional_policy/sources/docoffic/working/regions2020/index_en.htm • Context: "Regional Futures Initiative", a network of think tanks and experts looking at future of regional trends established by the Bertelsmann Foundation, the World Bank and DG REGIO • Objective: • improve understanding of the role of key challenges such as globalisation, climate change, demographic change and migration, energy and social polarisation, play in generating and reducing spatial disparities in the European Union and neighbourhood countries. • provide a basis for Regional Policy discussion and choices in the coming years. • 5 thematic workshops (Climate Change 7 May 2009) • On the basis of a consensus result of the workshop the paper will be finalised and reach the status of a solid basis for the discussion about the future of Structural Policy. • Contact: Wolfgang.Munch@ec.europa.eu