Rogun Hydropower Project Techno-Economic Assessment INDEPENDENT PANEL OF EXPERTS

1. Rogun Hydropower ProjectTechno-Economic AssessmentINDEPENDENT PANEL OF EXPERTS ENGINEERING/DAM SAFETY PANEL 15 May 2011

2. TEAS Panel of Experts (PoE) Membership Roger Gill (Chair) - Hydropower Policy Expert Ljiljana Spasic-Gril - Dam Engineering/Dam Safety/ Seismic Engineering Expert Paul Marinos - Engineering Geology/Rock Mechanics Expert (will visit site in future)

3. Terms of Reference • To ensure due diligence and international quality standards in the studies • To provide independent advice and guidance to support objectivity and credibility in the assessment process • To share technical expertise and knowledge PRIMARY OUTCOME: • Ensure international standards of design, risk evaluation and impact assessment are met • Assure a level of confidence amongst the international community in the quality and integrity of the assessment process and findings

4. PoE Process • To date PoE have reviewed ToR, Inception Report, completed a first site visit and held discussions in Dushanbe • PoE members are confident that the process should ensure that no BIG issues are overlooked

5. Integrating the Key Actors • Client (Barki Tajik) • TEAS Consultant (Coyne et Bellier/ELC/IPA) • Hydroprojekt Moscow (HPM) • ESIA Consultant (Poyry) • TEAS at feasibility stage while HPM is undertaking detailed design • Coordination and communication between all the parties is critical to the effective execution of the program • TEAS consultant should visit HPM in Moscow and view the spillway physical model • Sharing short fortnightly Progress Reports amongst the key Actors is recommended

6. Recommendations to guide future work To align with good international practice for hydropower and large dam projects the following areas need attention: • Clarify the principal design criteria • Identify key risk mitigation measures (current and planned) • Economic evaluation • Understand the long term sustainability of the storage under high sediment inflows • Clarify transboundary water management plans

7. Principal Design Criteria • Must clearly indentify the principal design criteria for the full project and for Stage 1 to align the project development work with international standards • The criteria are requested separately from HPM and TEAS consultants and should be based on the current and future plans • Including (but not limited to): • Probable Maximum Flood (PMF) criteria • Safe flood passage criteria • Seismic design parameters • Criteria for design of structures to accommodate regional seismicity • Operating criteria • Sediment management

8. Identifying Key Risk Mitigations • PoE must be convinced that mitigation actions are in place to address the key project risks • Mitigation measures must reduce the potential risk impacts to internationally acceptable levels • Risk rating = (consequence) x (likelihood) • Risk rating is assessed both before and after mitigation actions are in place

9. Addressing Key Risk Mitigations (1) • The PoE recommends that an initial workshop be held in July to agree the key risk mitigation profile of the Rogun Dam project • The output would be a table identifying how the major risks are to be mitigated, for example purposes only:

10. Risk Categories

11. Initial Risk Workshop In advance of the workshop: • the Key Actors will separately prepare their list of top 10 or so risks and associated mitigation actions using an agreed format. At the workshop: • we will collectively agree the post mitigation or residual risk impact category based on an agreed set of definition

12. Economics • Understanding the cost/benefit analysis of a project is fundamental to sustainable practice and to ensure the effective allocation of capital • An initial cost/benefit analysis should be completed by the TEAS consultant, in collaboration with ESIA consultant by the end of June to guide decision making during the feasibility study, including: • an update of the cost estimate of the project • an assessment of the market opportunities for electricity sales • recognition of the full benefits of Rogun • The initial analysis should be completed for both the full project and Stage 1

13. Key Actor’s - Different Timeframes • Client – wishes to divert mid Nov 2011 • TEAS Consultant – needs additional site investigations to complete full feasibility study (more than 1 year to complete) • World Bank/PoE – international standards must be met and residual risks acceptable (18 month study) • The question is – How can the different timeframes be managed?

14. Client’s Timeframe

15. Managing Different Timeframes • Could be done if Stage 1 is considered as a stand alone project meeting international standards with a normal design life (>100 years) to cover the possibility that stage 2 is delayed • TEAS – should prepare feasibility design for a stand alone Stage 1 dam to 1110m asl • Client - undertakes additional site investigations in accordance with specifications by TEAS consultant and with their oversight

16. Stage 1 Stand Alone Feasibility During a >100 year design life Stage 1 must: • safely pass PMF • accommodate maximum seismic event • be economically sustainable • together with Nurek, both facilities must sustainably cope with the sediment load After 7 yrs 1100 Dam Distance from Dam 18 km

17. Example of Dam Optionat Stage 1 • BUT must accommodate the salt wedge treatment

18. Transboundary Water Management • The operational discharge regime should be explored by the TEAS in conjunction with ESIA Consultant for Rogun and the Vakhsh cascade to enable the ESIA consultant to address the transboundary water management issues and opportunities for joint benefits across riparian countries

19. Long Term Sediment Management • Mitigation measures to address the long term sediment impacts must be considered to demonstrate that dam safety can be assured in the very long term: • Spillway capability, dam height and seismicity are key issues • Reference: Palmieri et al (2003) “Reservoir Conservation – the Rescon Approach – economic and engineering evaluation of alternative strategies for managing sedimentation in storage reservoirs”

20. Inception Phase - PoE Recommendations • HPM and TEAS consultants to produce principal design criteria • Hold Risk Mitigation management workshop • Undertake initial cost/benefit analysis (Full project and Stage 1) • Stage 1 design must have a design life >100 years • Consider mitigation measures to address the long term sediment impacts and ensure dam safety • Explore operational discharge regime to assist in addressing transboundary water management issues • Ensure co-ordination between the Key Actors by sharing fortnightly progress reports