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TAG Meeting August 27, 2009

TAG Meeting August 27, 2009. ElectriCities Office Raleigh, NC. 1. TAG Meeting Agenda Introductions and Agenda – Rich Wodyka Attachment K FERC Ruling – Kendall Bowman 2009 Study Scope Update and Status – Bob Beadle 2009 Study Preliminary Results – Bob Beadle

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TAG Meeting August 27, 2009

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  1. TAG MeetingAugust 27, 2009 ElectriCities Office Raleigh, NC 1

  2. TAG Meeting Agenda • Introductions and Agenda – Rich Wodyka • Attachment K FERC Ruling – Kendall Bowman • 2009 Study Scope Update and Status – Bob Beadle • 2009 Study Preliminary Results – Bob Beadle • Major Transmission Project Update – Sam Waters • Regional Studies – Bob Pierce • EIPC Activities – Ed Ernst • NC Commission Report – Kim Jones • TAG Scope – Proposed Changes – Rich Wodyka • TAG Work Plan – Rich Wodyka • TAG Open Forum – Rich Wodyka 2

  3. Duke and Progress Attachment K Compliance Filing Kendal Bowman Progress Energy 3

  4. FERC Duke/Progress Attachment K Order – June 18, 2009 Duke/Progress Request for Clarification or in Alternate, Rehearing – July 20, 2009 Duke/Progress Attachment K Filing – August 17, 2009 4

  5. Duke/Progress Request for Clarification or in Alternate, Rehearing Duke/Progress had included wording in the SIRPP area of the tariff stating that resource specific confidential information would not be made available due to the competitively sensitive nature of the data. FERC ordered that this information must be released, under applicable confidentiality provisions, if the information is needed to participate in the transmission planning process and/or to replicate transmission planning studies. Duke/Progress Request for Clarification or in Alternate Rehearing seeks to clarify that the confidentiality agreements may restrict the availability of competitive confidential information, such that it is only available to non-merchant function personnel. 5

  6. Duke/Progress Attachment K Filing Added tariff language stating that the TAG “Eligible Customers and Ancillary Service Providers” Sector can include demand response providers. Added language that describes the process that the NCTPC will use to evaluate competing solutions submitted in the transmission planning process. Requires that the TAG participants submit information (cost, performance, lead time to install, etc.) associated with an alternative solution so that it can be compared to the transmission solution. 6

  7. Duke/Progress Attachment K Filing (cont.) Changes required related to acquiring data: Acquiring CEII data: Removed requirement to obtain Form 715 approval from FERC before the release of CEII data. NCTPC and SIRPP will now administer the approval process for obtaining CEII data. Removed provisions within the SIRPP area that had afforded special protections of release of non-public utility transmission provider data. Revised tariff language related to the release of competitively sensitive data, under appropriate confidentiality agreements (as explained in the Request for Clarification, or in Alternate Rehearing slide). 7

  8. Questions ? 8 8 8

  9. NCTPC 2009 Study Scope Update and Status Bob Beadle North Carolina EMC 9

  10. Assess Duke and Progress transmission systems' reliability and develop a single Collaborative Transmission Plan Also assess Enhanced Access Study requests provided by Participants or TAG members Purpose of Study 10

  11. Study Year – near term reliability analysis: 2014 Summer, 2014/2015 Winter 2014 Summer – high import sensitivity to CPLW Study Year – longer term reliability analysis: 2019 Summer LSEs provided: Input for load forecasts and resource supply assumptions Dispatch order for their resources Interchange coordinated between Participants and neighboring systems Study Assumptions Selected 11

  12. Study Criteria Established NERC Reliability Standards Current standards for base study screening SERC Requirements Individual company criteria 12

  13. Study Methodologies Selected Similarities to previous studies: Thermal Power Flow Analysis Voltage, stability, short circuit, phase angle analysis - as needed Sensitivity to examine the use of high temperature conductor on the DEC Caesar (Shiloh-Pisgah) 230kV line 13

  14. Latest available MMWG cases were selected and updated for study years (change made from previous studies to incorporate latest PJM transmission upgrades) Combined detailed model for Duke and Progress was prepared Planned transmission additions from updated 2008 Plan were included in models Base Case Models Developed 14

  15. 1. Assumptions Selected 2. Study Criteria Established 3. Study Methodologies Selected 4. Models and Cases Developed 5. Technical Analysis Performed 6. Problems Identified and Solutions Developed 7. Collaborative Plan Projects Selected 8. Study Report Prepared Steps and Status of the Study Process Completed 15

  16. Hypothetical imports To Duke To Progress To Duke and Progress Hypothetical export: CPLE to PJM Hypothetical base load generation Resource Supply Options Selected 16

  17. Hypothetical Import/Export Scenarios 17

  18. Bob BeadleNorth Carolina EMC NCTPC 2009 Study Preliminary Results 18

  19. 2014 Summer No new issues identified in Eastern or Western Areas Projects already in the Collaborative Plan to address network loadings 2014-15 Winter Issues identified in Western Area Pisgah 115/110kV Transformers Asheville-DPC Pisgah 230kV Lines, Up-rate 2019 Summer No new issues identified in Eastern or Western Areas Preliminary Base Case Results – Progress Energy 19

  20. Contingencies and Year Upgrade Needed: Transformer replacement (loss of parallel bank) Pisgah 115/100kV transformer, 2018 Sadler 230/100kV transformer, 2018 (presently scheduled for 2016) Upgrades needed for loss of a parallel line: Davidson River 100kV line, 2014 Fisher 230kV line, 2016 Norman 230kV line, 2018 London Creek 230kV line, 2015 Preliminary Base CaseResults - Duke 20

  21. Davidson River 100kV, Fisher 230kV, and London Creek 230kV Lines are adversely affected in the high summer import from CPLE to CPLW transfer sensitivity case. High import from CPLE causes significant acceleration of projects from outside the planning horizon to inside planning horizon. Preliminary Base Case Results – Duke (affects of high import sensitivity) 21

  22. Caesar 230kV Line Project: Using high temperature conductor to rebuild the Caesar 230 kV (Shiloh-Pisgah) Lines only significantly affects the Davidson River 100 kV Lines Results show that, with use of the high temperature conductor and the high summer import from CPLE to CPLW transfer, reconductor of the Davidson River Lines is required prior to 2014, which may not be feasible  Duke is exploring use of operating procedures to alleviate the loading on the Davidson River Lines Preliminary Base Case Results - Duke (affects of high temperature conductor) 22

  23. TAG Input Request • TAG is requested to provide input to the OSC and PWG on the technical analysis performed and the problems identified, as well as to propose alternative solutions to those problems • Provide input by September 18, 2009 to ITP (r.wodyka@accenture.com)

  24. Collaborative Plan Projects Selected Compare all alternatives and select preferred solutions Study Report Prepared Prepare draft report and distribute to TAG for review and comment 24

  25. Questions ? 25

  26. Sam Waters Progress Energy Major Transmission Project Update 26

  27. Contains 7 Progress Energy project in-service date changes that are driven by a reduction in Eastern Area load forecast Description of changes in load forecast for Duke and Progress 2009 Mid-Year Update to the 2008 Collaborative Transmission Plans 27 27

  28. Import Scenarios 28 28

  29. Import Scenarios 29 29

  30. Import Scenarios 30

  31. Eastern Area Growth Slower than Projected Progress Energy 31 31

  32. Western Area Growth Faster than Projected Progress Energy 32 32

  33. Load Forecast Revisions Progress Energy 33 33

  34. Load Forecast Revisions Progress Energy • Eastern Area load reduction of 671 MW • Approximately 50% is Wholesale • 100 MW’s is DSM and Energy Efficiency • Remainder is loss of Industrial customers and a decline in Commercial Loads • Western Area increase of 87 MW • Peak loads have exceeded previous year projections • Industrial & Residential sectors have remained stable in WNC 34 34

  35. Load Forecast Revisions Duke Energy • Decrease in load of 400-500 MW or approximately 2 years of load growth • Going forward Duke would normally expect to see an annual increase of 225-250 MW/year  • With the economic downturn and the decrease in new residential connections the rate of load growth is expected to be lower than in the past. 35 35

  36. Questions ? 36

  37. Bob Pierce – Duke Energy Regional Studies Reports 37

  38. Stakeholders requested the following studies: Entergy to Georgia ITS (2000 MW) SPP to SIRPP footprint (5000 MW) PJM “classic” to Southern (3000 MW) PJM west to Southern (2000 MW) Southern to PJM “classic” (3000 MW) Southeast Inter-Regional Participation Process (SIRPP) Status Update 38 38 38

  39. SIRPP Status Update 39 39 39

  40. SIRPP Status Update Scenario Explanations: 1 – Belews Creek 1 unit out 2 – McGuire Nuclear Unit 1 out 40 40 40

  41. SIRPP Status Update Scenario Explanations: 1 – Oconee Nuclear Unit 1 or 2 out 41 41 41

  42. SIRPP Status Update Scenario Explanations: 1 – Oconee Nuclear Unit 1 or 2 out 42 42 42

  43. SIRPP Status Update Scenario Explanations: 1 – Broad River Energy Center 1 unit out 43 43 43

  44. Next steps Website Link : www.southeastirpp.com SIRPP Status Update 44 44 44

  45. Completed 2009 Series models Supporting development of 2009 Series ERAG – MMWG powerflow and stability models Coordinated tie lines and interchange Submitting 10 years of model data for each region in the Eastern Interconnection Powerflow models to be completed in November Stability models to be completed in December/January SERC LTSG (Long-term Study Group) 45 45 45

  46. LTSG 2015S Study 2009 Study Scope • Accomplish the objectives of the various reliability agreements among SERC member systems, and • Meet the North American Electric Reliability Council (NERC) requirements for a Long-Term Reliability Assessment (LTRA) for both a 10-year reference case and a scenario case. 46 46 46

  47. LTSG 2015S Study • Base case analysis of bulk energy transfers • N-1 AC analysis of base case and sub-regional transfers 47 47 47

  48. LTSG 2015S Study Significant Issues • Report is being compiled and should be • available in December 48 48 48

  49. Response to comments on the third draft of the standard should be available within the next month. A fourth posting of the standard will also be issued in response to industry comments and discussion with FERC staff Comments will be received on the fourth posting NERC TPL001-1 49 49 49 49

  50. One of the questions being asked on the fourth posting questionnaire is whether stakeholders believe the standard is ready for ballot. The goal is to have the balloted, approved standard to the NERC BOD by the end of the year. NERC TPL001-1 50 50 50 50

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