Could it Work? Electronic and Electrical Engineering

Could it Work?Electronic and Electrical Engineering James Green Based in part on slides by Sheila MacNeil

Could it work? - Overview • Some pointers on “product development” • Developing a “requirements brief” • Feasibility – is it worth it? • SWOT analysis • Commercial questions • Estimation examples in electronic and electrical engineering

Product Development Product development can be driven by (for example): • A new invention or idea that needs to find a old problem to solve. • An old problem that needs a new invention or idea to solve it. • What about a new idea to solve a new problem?

1. New Idea seeks Old Problem… A new invention or process which doesn’t appear to solve any outstanding problems at the time of discovery. • 1952 - Radushkevichand Lukyanovich1 report work on hollow graphitic carbon fibres, 50nanometres thick. • 2006 - ÓscarPereiro wins Tour de France on a “nanotube” enhanced bike • 1997 – first single electron nano-tube transistor2 • 2012 – 9 nm nano-tube transistor “better” than Si3. 1. 10.1016/j.carbon.2006.03.019. 2. 10.1126/science.275.5308.1922. 3. 10.1021/nl203701g.

2. Old Problem seeks New Idea… A pre-existing problem which may already have solutions is solved in a better (often less expensive) way. • Invention of transistor to replace thermionic valve. • Motor car to replace horse and carriage . • Cart & donkey to replace carrying things around by hand.

Assessing the Requirements • It is impossible to bring a useful solution to market unless the problem is well understood. Or, you can’t answer a question if you don’t understand it. • Software/Systems engineers know this as “requirements analysis”. It is often the first step in the all areas of engineering but especially software development. • How to achieve this depends on the problem and the field – use a range of sources to come up with your initial product analysis, product requirements. • Test and check your assumptions rigorously.

User Interface Example • You are working as a software engineer in a multidisciplinary research and development company. The company is contracted to develop an “electronic assistive device” to assist the every day activity of people living with dementia (PLWD). • You are assigned to a small team of healthcare professionals to develop the requirements analysis of the user interface for the device. • Since it is day one of your new project no-one has done any research yet… What can you say about the needs / difficulties of your client that affect how they will interact with a UI?

What do you know on day one? • Strong link between aging and dementia. • Sight difficulties • Hearing difficulties • Cognitive difficulties • Motor difficulties • Psychosocial attitude towards technology • Problems specific to PLWD. • Language and communication difficulties • Progression of dementia (it gets worse with time)

What will you do next? • Extensive literature review into prior UI designs for PLWD. • Consultation with experts in dementia • one to one interviews • forms/surveys • Consultation of PLWD • Ask them what they need… • Consultation of carers of PLWD • Ask them what they need (will it be the same?) • Consult the product designers (you are the UI designer) • The UI must fit the requirements of the product (i.e. to provide whatever functionality is desired) with the needs of the user (how big should the font be?, will there be voice activation?, how loud should the volume go, up to 11?)

And then what? • The specification of the UI and the product functionality will eventually converge. And a specification can be written. • You can start coding… • Because your company is forward thinking you use an “agile” approach. • You meet with the HCPs regularly and adjust the specification according to their feedback. • When the basic functionality is established you can pass it to “alpha” testers (PLWDs and their carers).

Ideas for Requirements Analysis • Questions to help do an electronic engineering requirement analysis: • How is the product going to be used ? • Is the product going to be safety critical, fault tolerant? • Battery powered / mains? • Operating environment (temperature, humidity, caustic environment, radiation hardened? EMC? etc.) • Anticipated lifetime 1 year –> 30 years (more)? • There are ISO9000 and British standards to obey • It all dependents on having a clear requirements analysis

New Product Development (NPD) General process of product development: • Idea Generation(up to 50 % time spend here) • Idea Screening • Concept Development and Testing • Business Analysis • Beta Testing and Market Testing • Technical Implementation Smith, P. G. and Reinertsen, D. G. Developing Products in Half the Time, 2nd Ed., John Wiley and Sons, New York, 1998.

Commercial Aspects • Is it worth doing? • To gain profit? Political ideology? For the good of human kind? To prove that we can? • What are the competing technologies? • Thermionic valve vs. Semiconductor transistor • Windows vs. Linux or AMD vs. Intel • Arian V vs. Titan IV • Who will buy it? • How much will it cost to develop versus the number that you’re going to sell?

Got a new technology? • The production of the first working thermionic valve was closely bound to developments in oil diffusion pumps. It difficult, but not impossible1 to produce a glass envelope, and place inside metal electrodes having intricate yet well defined geometries. But the valve was bound to the pump by lack of a “hard” vacuum. • Improvements in oil diffusion pumps allowed experimenters to produce the “hard” vacuum required to make the first commercially viable thermionic valves. • Initially the cost of a valve would have been huge, each one being made manually by a highly skilled technician. Fortunately the cost is reduced by automated mass production and economies of scale. A Si transistor in 1960 cost approx.. $7 which is about $130 in today’s money. 1. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gl-QMuUQhVM

Technology breakthroughs and timing • Is your technology going to be innovative enough, effective enough or economically attractive enough? Can it compete with others? • Time to market? Following the introduction of a technology that works, others may be introduced rapidly thereafter and take away the market. • Ideally your technology should be superior to others and difficult to copy. Your company should gain a wealth of experience as quickly as possible with the new technology to provide a service that others can not and to “stay ahead of the curve” in terms of R&D.

Technology breakthroughs and timing • SWOT analysis. Easy reminder that you should always have the answers to this. What are the • Strengths of your approach • Weaknesses of your approach • Opportunities this approach offers • Threats that might act against your solution

Examples of strengths • You propose a solution to a problem that’s large, can’t be solved using existing technologies and will benefit lots of customers safely at a price that leads to good economic take up. • ARM did most of this with their high end embedded systems ARM7, 9 and 11. A NY times article from 20081 predicts ARMs dominance of the mobile chip market on the eve of the smartphone explosion. ARM licence processor IP to nVidia and Qualcomm. http://www.nytimes.com/2008/06/30/technology/30chip.html?pagewanted=2&_r=0&ref=business

Examples of weaknesses • Your solution would only make a marginal difference to the current problem and you are introducing a technology that others could readily copy. • Look out for large numbers of patents filed on every tiny advancement in a field, this is a sign of weakness. Also patents which are purposely vague have low originality. The technology is easily reproduced. MP3 players/smart phones/tablet PCs are good fun in this respect. Apple has a fine example1. 1. http://assets.sbnation.com/assets/1701443/USD670286S1.pdf

Examples of opportunities Opportunities are things you can do which are under your control. • The development of a technology that you can apply to more than one problem/market. • Acquisition of new technology (licencing) • Asset leverage (borrowing money against your business/buildings/land/shares etc.) • Financial markets (raise money through debt etc.) • Expand into emerging markets and expansion overseas • Expand Online • Bring more products and services to current markets • Takeover companies holding useful IP and/or take over your competitors.

Examples of Threats • Most likely other competing technologies • Other, more economically viable solutions • Other, safer solutions • Other solutions more likely to be adopted by the customer/market or standardisation agency. • Sudden change in economic landscape. • External forces (government policy, taxation etc.) • Exchange rate fluctuations and price wars • Also the market climate at time of introduction-e.g. bad press on nanotechnology or stem cells might act to prevent uptake of these technologies

Your Turn… • Perform a SWOT analysis on the goal of: “I want to get an engineering job before or within three months of leaving university” Strengths, weaknesses, opportunities, threats 5 minutes, groups of 5… GO!

My answers… Strengths Your characteristics giving you an advantage over others in your organisation, career field, or speciality. • Technical or life experience • Quality of education (good degree 1st, 2.1) • Perseverance • Charisma • Second language • Interview practice

My answers… Weaknesses Counter to the previous, these are your characteristics placing you at a disadvantage relative to others. • Lack of “good” formal education (3rd or pass) • Lack of experience the field • No contacts in a certain network • Health problems • Crushing fear of job interviews • Lack of / unwillingness to prepare

My answers… Opportunities These are the external controllable factors that increase your chances. • Referrals from industrial colleagues • Business leads from friends • An upcoming industrial meeting / conference (networking potential) • Glowing letter of recommendation from your project supervisor. • LinkedIn / internet presence • Careers service

My answers… Threats These are the uncontrollable factors conspiring to keep you from getting a job. • Procrastination • Fear of failure/rejection/unknown • Competing interests on your time • Competition from others • Health concerns

Safety • What are the safety threats to your solution? • What is the worst that might happen? Start from there and think it through. Airbus1. • What can you do to reduce or remove these risks? • Risk = likelihood of it happening x how bad the consequences are. • Not very good for nuclear power stations… (tiny number x huge number = ??) 1. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-21059605

Creative Solutions to Problems • If nothing good already exists, look for solutions outside of the current technology. • Explore how similar or analogous problems are solved in other fields. (e.g. Loudspeaker enclosure design = filter design. Mass, spring, damping = RLC) • Do not fear feeling stupid, but do try to obey the laws of the universe (thermodynamics etc.)

Estimation in Engineering • Also known as “Rules of thumb” or “back of the envelope calculations” • Can save time avoiding detailed analysis where a simple calculation reveals the answer • The approach can help where any decision based on known principles needs to be made

Making Assumptions • Usually we will need to make some assumptions • In a big number, small differences are insignificant; we only need rough accuracy • Useful to know some standard data (e.g. Typical weight of a person, energy available from a 13A socket, constants etc.) • If you are making a big assumption, you could repeat your calculation with different values to see the effect – i.e. does it change anything? Is the relationship linear or power?

How Far? You are specifying the battery system in a small electric car (1000 kg). How “big” must the battery pack be to have a 100 mile range? What is the horse power?

First Order Estimate I • Choose a battery technology say LiFePO4 • The size of the pack needed will be dependent on the driving style, terrain, speed, rolling resistance, aerodynamics etc. but for now, ignore all this. • Assume constant speed. No drag, or rolling resistance. Flat terrain. • Need to know the number of watt hours per mile for a car with mass 1000 kg.

First Order Estimate II • 1000 kg is just “small car” (Yaris for example) • An internet search reveals a spread of values choosing the median value, 270 Wh/mile • Whper mile / pack voltage = Ah per mile • Pack voltage choice is a multi-faceted problem (which there is no time to discuss now) but we will say 144 V. It’s 45 LiFePO4 cells in a string. • 270/144 = 1.875 Ah per mile

First Order Estimate III • To go 100 miles we need a pack capacity of 1.875 Ah per mile x 100 miles = 187.5 Ah • But… that would leave the pack totally discharged! So multiply by a reasonable value say 1.2 to yield 225 Ah. • Total Wh = 100 miles x 270 Wh/mile = 27 kWh • Assume 200 Wh/kg (from internet/databook) • Pack mass = 27 kW / 200 = 135 kg the rest of the car must weigh < 725 kg (1000 – 135 – 2x70)

First Order Estimate IV • The marketing department want to know about “short term horse power”. • If the power electronics present no limit. Assume max 10s current is 5x capacity (225Ah battery x 5 = 1.125 kA) • P = I V = 1.125 kA x 144 = 162 kW • But… someone from the traction department walks in and says, “100 kW is the max short term drive power.” • So BHP = 100 kW / 746 = 134 HP.

Expectations of Electronics Students • Electronic Engineers should know something about micro-electronics (analogue and digital), power systems, machines, drives, communications, and some software engineering (coding and microprocessor architecture). • Should have an appreciation of how electronics has shaped the world in the last 150 years. • Should be used to thinking how a system or device or instrument will interact with a person (and how a person will interact with it). • Should be comfortable with thinking/working across disciplines to develop new solutions to problems. • Should be able to listen to others, and justify their opinion based on evidence only. • And explain sucinctly to the informed non-specialist any technical knowledge that is relevant to the discussion.

Could it Work? Electronic and Electrical Engineering