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REMSAD SO2 and Sulfate Predictions for the BRAVO High/Low Base Cases

Investigating REMSAD predictions for SO2 and sulfate emissions in high and low base cases. Analysis of regional concentration changes, emission reductions, and conclusions drawn from the study.

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REMSAD SO2 and Sulfate Predictions for the BRAVO High/Low Base Cases

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  1. REMSAD SO2 and Sulfate Predictions for the BRAVO High/Low Base CasesMichael G. BarnaCooperative Institute for Research in the AtmosphereColorado State UniversityFort Collins, CO10 October 2002

  2. Today… Recent History: Nine Weeks Ago… • Problem discovered in REMSAD chemistry solver – crashed during stagnant conditions • Error found in US point source emissions

  3. Base Case Emissions Simulation: • Two REMSAD “base case” simulations were run: • “high base case” - Carbon I/II at 241k tpa • “low base case” - Carbon I/II at 152k tpa • SO2 and Sulfate emissions reduced, but other pollutants unchanged

  4. High Base Case SO2 Delta SO2 Low Base Case SO2 Change in Regional SO2 Concentrations: High Base Case SO2

  5. High Base Case SO4 Low Base Case SO4 Delta SO4 Change in Regional SO4 Concentrations:

  6. Big Bend NP: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:

  7. Amistad: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:

  8. McDonald: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:

  9. Monahans: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:

  10. Marathon: SO2: SO4: Hi: Low:

  11. Statistics – Big Bend:

  12. Statistics – Monahans:

  13. Statistics – Amistad:

  14. Statistics – McDonald:

  15. Statistics – Marathon:

  16. Contribution of gas-pathway SO4 and aq-pathway SO4:

  17. Conclusions: • Tendency to over-predict SO2 concentrations, except during a few episodic periods • Sulfate concentrations generally in agreement with observations • Sulfate concentrations near BBNP not strongly influenced by change in Carbon I/II SO2/sulfate emissions • SO2 predictions using “low base” Carbon I/II emissions tend to be in better agreement with observations

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