Climate, oceans and paleo-environments

1. Climate, oceans and paleo-environments Topics for this week • The role of human activities in a complex climate system • Climate change and the broader societal context • Role of conflict and uncertainty about climate change • Key actions to take on climate change, and role Canada is currently playing • Climate change policies and the example of the BC carbon tax

2. Scientific basis for concern • The greenhouse effect: how it works (regardless of human activities) • Contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to global warming: • water vapour, H2O (65%) • carbon dioxide, CO2 (25%) • methane, nitrous oxides and others, CH4 (10%) • Rough residence times, or time it takes for GHGs to be removed from atmosphere: • H2O – 10 days • CH4 – 10 years • CO2 – 100 years

3. Greenhouse effect … www.solarlightaustralia.com.au

4. Scientific basis for concern • The greenhouse effect: how it works (regardless of human activities) • Contributions of greenhouse gases (GHGs) to global warming: • water vapour, H2O (65%) • carbon dioxide, CO2 (25%) • methane, nitrous oxides and others, CH4 (10%) • Rough residence times, or time it takes for GHGs to be removed from atmosphere: • H2O – 10 days • CH4 – 10 years • CO2 – 100 years

5. Scientific basis for concern, cont’d • In 1957 .. systematic measurement began • Revelle and Suess (1957), argued that the oceans could not absorb the human emissions of CO2 as fast as they were being produced: ‘human beings are now carrying out a large-scale geophysical experiment of a kind that could not have happened in the past nor be reproduced in the future.’ • Paleo-climate studies—ice core data, oxygen isotope ratios • Major ice age was 5 degrees Celsius colder than today • CO2 concentrations rising rapidly: 300 ppm (warmest periods); 180 ppm (peak of ice age); 280 ppm (year 1800); 315 ppm (1960); 385 ppm (2008)

6. Global temperature rising

7. Warming experienced by different Canadian regions vs. normal in 2010

8. Source: David Suzuki Foundation

9. An international / global issue 1985—WMO, UNEP, and OCSU issue statement, stating past climate data NOT a reliable guide for future…. Why? 1988—Canada’s hosts Our Changing Atmosphere: Implications for Global Security — first high-level conference on climate change (Canada, at the time, is world leader) 1988— Inter-governmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) formed 1990—Second World Climate Conference, calls for formation of the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC), signed at 1992 Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro 1994—UNFCCC comes into force IPCC assessment reviews in 1990, 1995, 2001, and 2007

10. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) Working groups: WG1 – the physical science basis WG2 – impacts, adaptation, and vulnerability WG3 – mitigation All reports extensively peer-reviewed Summaries for policy-makers: Line-by-line approved by governments All documents available at http://www.ipcc.ch/

11. Detection and attribution Figure 5.2 Comparison between global mean surface temperature anomalies (°C) from observations (black) and Atmosphere–Ocean General Circulation Model (AOGCM) simulations forced with (a) both anthropogenic and natural forcings and (b) natural forcings only. The multi-model ensemble mean is shown as a medium-grey curve, and individual simulations are shown as light-grey curves. Vertical grey lines indicate the timing of major volcanic events. The simulated global mean temperature anomalies in (b) are from 19 simulations produced by five models with natural forcings only. The multi-model ensemble mean is shown as a medium-grey curve, and individual simulations are shown as light-grey curves.

12. Uncertainties and positive feedbacks Water vapour is a positive feedback—as climate warms, the atmosphere retains more water vapour Snow and ice reflect incoming solar radiation and cool climate; thus, reducing snow-ice cover means more solar radiation absorption Clouds also play a role in modelling climate change but complex Essentially: Change amidst change which is affecting change through positive feedbacks is hard to be 100% certain about Not surprisingly, uncertainties have led to conflict

13. Communicating uncertainty • Detection of climate change regardless of attribution of the change • Attribution of the change to anthropogenic actions controversial • Wording changes on attribution from first to fourth assessment review • The problem with uncertainty: Scientific understanding versus public understanding • See Guest Statement by Linda Mortsch, page 127–8 • Needed: Communication and social learning of various ‘publics’ so that they have the understanding, information, and requisite skills to participate in debate on climate change, appreciate the consequences, and develop and implement response strategies. • Confusion over ‘uncertainty’: Various groups with competing agendas that capitalize on uncertainty in the science to promote or discredit the issue

14. International action .. UNFCCC • Objective: Stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system. Such a level should be achieved within a time frame sufficient to allow ecosystems to adapt naturally to climate change, to ensure that food production is not threatened, and to enable economic development to proceed in a sustainable manner. • How? • emissions reductions (usually called mitigation) • adaptation

15. UNFCCC Cont’d… • Mitigation: • involves efforts to stabilize or reduce greenhouse gas emissions to slow or stall changes in climate • largely driven by international agreements such as the Kyoto Protocol, which set binding emissions-reduction targets for signatory states. • Adaptation: • recognizes that despite efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, a significant degree of climate change is inevitable • acknowledges that the climate already exerts significant pressure on physical, social, and economic systems that has not been addressed

16. Canada’s record on climate change ‘Sorry record’, not fulfilling Kyoto Protocol commitment Federal politics lags on climate issue: the role of oil and gas/oil sands exploitation in Canada and now pipelines Reluctance to impose carbon taxes federally, faith in yet-untested carbon capture and storage, Dr. Mark Jaccard (REM) criticized the previous Liberals for a climate approach that is "labels-on-fridges-and-Rick-Mercer-ads“ and has called Canada under the Harper Conservatives a “Rogue State” for climate response Some progress .. BC carbon tax, other initiatives ??

17. Canada’s GHG emissions and various projections, 1990 – 2020 Canada’s GHG emissions per capita is among highest in world http://simondonner.blogspot.ca/2012/04/canadian-ghg-emissions-in-perspective.html

18. Adapting to climate change in Canada http://www.sfu.ca/ccirc/ http://act-adapt.org/ Impacts in Canada will vary by region … Largely determined by a community’s vulnerability, which is a function of its exposure to climate hazards, its sensitivity to the stresses they impose, and its capacity to adapt The central goal of adaptation policy must be to reduce vulnerability What is SFU doing? Research on impacts and adaptation

19. Environmental management policies and climate change • Non-interventionist/Decentralization - liability law, negotiation or bargaining, assignment of property rights or moral suasion • Command and Control - regulatory approach using standards, quotas, etc. • Economic Instruments - market incentives in the form of taxes, charges and tradable permits (cap and trade) Define economic instruments as providing "for the purpose of environmental improvement, monetary incentives for voluntary, non-coerced action by polluters."Opschoor and Vos (1989)

20. Example: BC Carbon Tax • Based on greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) generated from burning fuels • Puts a price on each tonne of GHG emitted • Applies to the purchase/use of fuels within the province • Provides an incentive without favoring any one way of reducing emissions over another • GHGs emitted when a unit of fuel is burned depends on the amount of carbon in the fuel • Collected in same way as motor fuel taxes, minimizing the cost of administration

21. Features of the BC Carbon Tax • All carbon tax revenue is recycled through tax reductions • The tax rate started low and has increased gradually • Low-income individuals and families are protected (i.e. refundable Low Income Climate Action Tax Credit) • The tax has the broadest possible base • The tax will be integrated with other measures

22. Selected carbon tax rates by fuel

23. Tax performance: sales of petroleum fuels subject to the BC carbon tax Source: Sustainable Prosperity 2013

24. GHG emissions per capita from sources subject to BC Carbon Tax* (% change) Source: GHG emissions data from Environment Canada, National Inventory Report; population data from Statistics Canada. Years beginning Jan. 1. *Excludes aviation, fugitive emissions, and electricity & heat generation GHG emissions