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Energy. Energy & Population Peak Oil Energy Use in Everyday Living Energy Efficiency & the Rebound Effect. Energy & Population. Energy & Population. Energy & Population. Energy & Population. Energy & Population. Energy & Population. Energy & Population. Energy & Population Summary
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Energy • Energy & Population • Peak Oil • Energy Use in Everyday Living • Energy Efficiency & the Rebound Effect
Energy & Population • Energy & Population Summary • Access to energy is good for human well-being • Developing countries have a strong desire to increase the per capita energy consumption • Population will rise fast before peaking in developing countries • Developed countries show no indication of a reduction in per capita energy demand • The fundamentals for a large increase in global energy demand are very strong
Peak Oil Sugar loaf field = 40 billion barrels of oil Global oil consumption (daily) = 81,820,000 barrels Global oil consumption (yearly) = 29,864,300,000 barrels Global oil consumption (yearly) = 0.77 Sugar loaf field Sugar loaf field = 1.3 years global oil consumption (at 2008 rate)
Chart of crude oil prices since 1861 Crude oil prices 1861 - 2008 US dollar per barrel World events
Peak Oil • A new energy unit the “Saudi Arabia” enters the language • The CEO of Petrobras, Mr. Gabrielli states that the world needs oil volumes the equivalent of one Saudi Arabia every two years to offset future world oil decline rates. (December 2009) • "Even if growth in global demand was at zero for the next 22 years, in order to compensate the decline in the existing fields, we need to increase the production by around 45 million barrels per day (bpd), which is the equivalent to bringing four new Saudi Arabias to the markets," Fatih Birol, Chief Economist International Energy Agency (November 2008) • Saudia Arabia produced 10,846,000 barrels of oil per day in 2008
Peak Oil What is Energy Security?
Peak Oil The Petroleum Interval
Peak Oil • Peak Oil Summary • The time when the maximum production rate has been reached and roughly half of the oil is gone • It does not mean that oil is running out, rather it is entering the stage of scarcity pricing • Is caused by a combination of geological, physical, technical, human, political & financial reasons • Will only be truly visible in the rear-view mirror, not enough concrete data to pinpoint precisely, particularly surrounding the Middle East • Will be characterised by spikes in the price of oil, inducing economic downturn which will dampen the price. Cycle will then repeat.
Energy Use in Everyday Living • Numbers, not adjectives • Need to use meaningful numbers and facts that are not obfuscated by enormousness • Expresses the energy consumption of everyday activities in kWh/d www.withoutthehotair.com
Energy Use in Everyday Living Energy per day = distance travelled per day x energy per unit of fuel distance per unit of fuel Distance per day = 50km Distance per unit fuel = 12km/litre Energy per unit of fuel = 10kWh/litre
Energy Use in Everyday Living • Energy Use in Everyday Living Summary • This will vary enormously for everyone • Every little does not help, every big helps • Often big changes need a systemic change in behaviour, not easy to do • Higher energy prices will affect everyday living • Use the website to find out some of your numbers What is systemic change?
Energy Use in Everyday Living What is resilience?
Energy Efficiency & the Rebound Effect • the Jevons paradox is the proposition that technological progress that increases the efficiency with which a resource is used, tends to increase (rather than decrease) the rate of consumption of that resource • the Khazzom-Brookes postulate states that "energy efficiency improvements that, on the broadest considerations, are economically justified at the microlevel, lead to higher levels of energy consumption at the macrolevel." • Example would be as heating became more efficient people just built bigger houses, as engines became more efficient cars became bigger and faster and people travelled more, etc… • Efficiency and sufficiency need to be considered in conjunction with each other!
Sources • Mattick C., Williams E., Allenby B., “Energy & Civilisation: A History of Energy Production and Consumption in a Global Cultural, Technological and Economic Context” IEEE International Symposium on Sustainable Systems & Technology, Phoenix, 19-21 May, 2009. • US Energy Information Administration, http://tonto.eia.doe.gov/cfapps/ipdbproject/iedindex3.cfm?tid=44&pid=45&aid=2&cid=&syid=1980&eyid=2007&unit=QBTU • United Nations Population Information Division http://esa.un.org/unpd/wpp2008/index.htm • BP Statistical Review of World Energy http://www.bp.com/productlanding.do?categoryId=6929&contentId=7044622 • Norwegian Petroleum Directorate http://norwayportal.mfa.no/en/Norway---the-official-site-in-the-United-States/ARCHIVE/business/businessnews/oilproduction/ • www.energybulletin.net • www.aspo-ireland.org • www.theoildrum.com • www.withoutthehotair.com
