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Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture Blended Products from SMOPS in NCEP Global Forecast System

Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture Blended Products from SMOPS in NCEP Global Forecast System Weizhong Zheng 1,2 , Xiwu Zhan 3 , Jicheng Liu 4 , Michael Ek 1 , Jesse Meng 1,2 , Jiarui Dong 1,2 and Helin Wei 1,2 1 NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD 20740 2 IMSG, Kensington, MD 20895

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Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture Blended Products from SMOPS in NCEP Global Forecast System

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  1. Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture Blended Products from SMOPS in NCEP Global Forecast System Weizhong Zheng1,2, Xiwu Zhan3, Jicheng Liu4, Michael Ek1, Jesse Meng1,2, Jiarui Dong1,2 and Helin Wei1,2 1NOAA/NCEP/EMC, College Park, MD 20740 2IMSG, Kensington, MD 20895 3NOAA/NESDIS/STAR, College Park, MD 20740 4GMU, Fairfax, VA 22030 JCSDA Science Workshop, June 5-7, 2013

  2. OUTLINE: • Objective • Embed EnKF in GFS • Testing with SMOS SM • Testing with SMOPS Blended SM * Fits to SfcObs * Fits to RaObs * Scores * CONUS Precipitation • Summary and future plan

  3. OBJECTIVES • “Online” satellite soil moisture data assimilation in NCEP GFS • Examine how satellite SM data impact NCEP GFS forecasts

  4. NOAA NESDIS Soil Moisture Operational Product System (SMOPS) • 6-hour operational soil moisture product from the Office of Satellite and Product Operations (OSPO) of NOAA/NESDIS. • Carries near real-time global gridded soil moisture products from several individual satellite sensors as well as a blended product. • Soil moisture layer from individual sensors: (AMSR-E), ASCAT, SMOS, and WindSat. • Blended product: CDF matching is used to merge all available values from above individual sensors to a common climatology, resulting in better spatial and temporal coverage.

  5. SMOPS Blended Product from WindSat, SMOS and ASCAT ASCAT SMOS WindSat Blended

  6. Testing with SMOS SM (May 1 – June 17 2012): 18Z, 1-17 June 2012 SMOS GFS_CTL GFS_EnKF EnKF-CTL

  7. Testing with SMOS SM (May 1 – June 17 2012): 18Z, 1-17 June 2012 SMOS GFS_CTL EnKF-CTL GFS_EnKF

  8. Assimilation of Satellite Soil Moisture Blended Products from SMOPS in NCEP Global Forecast System • The simplified ensemble Kalman Filter (EnKF) was embedded in the GFS latest version to assimilate soil moisture observation. • Case: Starting from 00Z April 1–May 4, 2012. (GFS/GSI) • Experiments: CTL: Control run (without SM DA) EnKF: Sensitivity run (Daily EnKF run) And precipitation perturbation. PRT: Perturbation size for each layer soil moisture.

  9. Comparison of soil moisture from SMOPS Blended 18Z, 1-30 April 2012 SMOPS GFS_CTL GFS_EnKF EnKF-CTL

  10. Comparison of soil moisture from SMOPS Blended 18Z, 1-30 April 2012 SMOPS GFS_CTL EnKF-CTL GFS_EnKF

  11. GFS Top Layer SM Validation With USDA-SCAN Measurements 1-30 of April, 2012

  12. Soil moisture at 4 layers: Day 3: April 2 – May 4 2012 CTL SM1 SM2 Diff SM3 SM4

  13. Q2m (left) and T2m (right): Day 3: April 2 – May 4 2012 CTL Diff

  14. Tmin2m (left) and Tmax2m (right): Day 3: April 2 – May 4 2012 CTL Diff

  15. Sfc RH (%) over CONUS West and East: April 2 – May 4 2012 East West

  16. Sfc RH (%) RMSE over CONUS West and East: April 2 – May 4 2012 East West

  17. Sfc T (K) over CONUS West and East: April 2 – May 4 2012 East West

  18. Sfc T (K) RMSE over CONUS West and East: April 2 – May 4 2012 East West

  19. RH (%) Bias and RMSE over CONUS: Day 5: April 2 – May 4 2012 RMSE Bias

  20. T(K) Bias and RMSE over CONUS: Day 5: April 2 – May 4 2012 RMSE Bias

  21. + 0.004

  22. 700 hPa + 0.003 1000 hPa + 0.003

  23. Bias - 0.36 RMSE - 0.43

  24. Bias RMSE

  25. NHX + 0.002 SHX + 0.007

  26. NHX SHX

  27. Precipitation Skill Scores over CONUS

  28. Summary: The satellite soil moisture blended products from SMOPS were assimilated in NCEP GFS and the result shows as follows: 1) Improved GFS deeper layer soil moisture estimates comparing with in situ measurements; 2) Improved GFS forecast scores and reduced its bias and root-mean-square errors. 3) Showed some positive impact on precipitation on CONUS but not for heavy precipitation. Future: assimilate SMAP (remote sensing), COSMOS & other in situ measurements. Furthermore, consider regions where soil alternates (frozen and thawed) during the transition seasons (by CREST ongoing project).

  29. Thank you! Questions?

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