Evaluation of TEWA in a Ground Based Air Defense Environment

1. Evaluation of TEWA in a Ground Based Air Defense Environment Presenters: Basie Kok, Andries Heyns Supervisor: Prof. Jan van Vuuren

2. Context and motivation Evaluation Overview Modelling TEWA components Simulation evaluation of TEWA Proposed measures of performance Demonstration Status / Further Work Overview

3. Forms part of TEWA program underway at the University of Stellenbosch. Aim: To evaluate a fully fledged TEWA system in a GBADS environment. High-stress environments of particular interest in GBADS application Collaborators: RRS, IMT, UDDC, CSIR… Duvenhage B & le Roux WH, A Peer-to-Peer Simulation Architecture, Proceedings of the 2007 High Performance Computing and Simulation Conference, pp. 684-690, 2007. le Roux WH, Implementing a Low Cost Distributed Architecture for Real-Time Behavioural Modelling and Simulation, Proceedings of the 2006 European Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Stockholm, pp. 81-95, June 2006. Roux J & van Vuuren JH, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, Orion Journal of Operations Research, Submitted June 2007. Evaluation of TEWA models to date an imperative step in producing an effective system: Investigation of computational costs (i.e. line of sight calculations) Effectiveness and relevance of various model sub-components Prototype testing often infeasible due to high cost. Evaluation of large complex systems in the design phase often involves simulation: Repetition (statistical certainty) Variation (realistic scope traversal) Context and Motivation

4. Objectives: Demonstrate workability of system Evaluate performance of various TE and WA methodologies in different contexts Evaluate system performance as a whole and identify focus areas for future development Overview: Model TEWA components Threat evaluation models Combining threat lists Weapon assignment models Simulate scenarios using repetition and statistical variation Robustness of components Performance of components Performance measure analysis Evaluation Overview

5. Threat Evaluation (TE) Flagging Models / Qualititive Deterministic / Quantitive Projected Passing Distance Bearing towards Assets Course towards Assets (2D & 3D) Time to asset Probabilistic [Jacques du Toit & Willa Lotz, Jaco Roux & Jan van Vuuren] Weapon Assignment (WA) Rule Based / Heuristic [Francois du Toit & Cobus Potgieter] Mathematical / Computational [Grant van Dieman] 1. Modelling TEWA

6. Provide information regarding major changes in attributes of monitored threats: Speed (Afterburner) Altitude (Pitch) Course (Maneuvers) Binary output Calibration options: Absolute Dynamic TE: Flagging Models

7. TE Models Course Projected Passing Distance Course Variation Bearing Estimated Time-To-Weapon-Release (TTWR) Determine threat values between 0 (minimum) and 1 (maximum) 7

8. TE Model Threat Lists Course a b d c

9. TE Model Threat Lists PPD a b d c

10. TE Model Threat Lists Course Variation a b d c

11. TE Model Threat Lists Bearing a b d c

12. TE Model Threat Lists TTWR a b d c

13. Combined Asset Threat List Course PPD CV Asset Bearing TTWR

14. Asset Threat Lists Asset a b d c

15. Asset Threat Lists Asset a b d c

16. Combined System Threat List Asset a System Asset b

17. System Threat Lists System a b d c

18. Combination Procedures Maximize Agreement Heuristic, Distance-Based Solution, Additive Model, Analytic Hierarchy Process Adapted from inustrial applications to be applied to TEWA TE model importance and Asset priorities taken into account by weighting Aim to maximize flexibility to satisfy end-user requirements 18

19. Constructive discrete event simulation Hill RR, Miller JO & McIntyre, Applications of discrete event simulation modelling to military problems, Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, 2001. Clymer JR, System design and evaluation using discrete-event simulation with artificial intelligence, Proceedings of the 1993 Winter Simulation Conference, 1993. System components Defended Assets Weapon sensors & effectors Terrain Monitored Threats (Fixed wing aircraft) System track (3D) Attack technique [Jacques du Toit & Willa Lotz] 2. Simulation of TEWA

20. System Infrastructure

21. Asset preservation Resource utilisation Weapon cache / asset preservation ratio Threat evaluation accuracy Intent vs action Estimated capability vs actual capability Assignment optimality Temporal optimality Weapon allocation optimality Weapon assignment optimality Expert analysis Challenges: Performance measures difficult to quantify! 3. Performance Measures

22. Demonstration

23. HMI

24. TE: Flagging model and deterministic model infrastructure implemented for multiple assets and multiple aircraft. Threat list generation and system threat calculation implemented. Probabilistic threat models, WA, and discrete event simulation of multiple aircraft and multiple assets in various attack scenarios will follow thereafter in order to evaluate TEWA models. Status / Further Work

25. References • Duvenhage B & le Roux WH, A Peer-to-Peer Simulation Architecture, Proceedings of the 2007 High Performance Computing and Simulation Conference, pp. 684-690, 2007. • le Roux WH, Implementing a Low Cost Distributed Architecture for Real-Time Behavioural Modelling and Simulation, Proceedings of the 2006 European Simulation Interoperability Workshop, Stockholm, pp. 81-95, June 2006. • Roux J & van Vuuren JH, Threat evaluation and weapon assignment decision support: A review of the state of the art, Orion Journal of Operations Research, Submitted June 2007. • Hill RR, Miller JO & McIntyre, Applications of discrete event simulation modelling to military problems, Proceedings of the 2001 Winter Simulation Conference, 2001. • Clymer JR, System design and evaluation using discrete-event simulation with artificial intelligence, Proceedings of the 1993 Winter Simulation Conference, 1993.