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Marketing Apples in a Global Environment: Challenges and Opportunities by Dr. Roberta Cook

Marketing Apples in a Global Environment: Challenges and Opportunities by Dr. Roberta Cook University of California Davis March 2003. Overview of Presentation. US apple situation Area and Production Trade Consumption Global apple production Emphasis on China

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Marketing Apples in a Global Environment: Challenges and Opportunities by Dr. Roberta Cook

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  1. Marketing Apples in a Global Environment: Challenges and Opportunities by Dr. Roberta Cook University of California Davis March 2003

  2. Overview of Presentation • US apple situation • Area and Production • Trade • Consumption • Global apple production • Emphasis on China • Global apple trade patterns • Global consumption patterns • Marketing issues

  3. US Apple Acreage and Change in 90-92 and 00-02 State Shares 31% 40% 7% 7% Down 11% Down 8% =168,785 hectares Source: USDA/NASS Jan. 03 and ERS

  4. Apple Acreage in Washington Area peaked in ’99 at 210,000

  5. Total Acres by Size of Apple Orchard - Washington Source: Census of Agriculture, as reported by Tom Shotzko

  6. Apple Acreage, by Variety in California and Washington, 2002 Likely 22,000 total acres in Ca. including processing, and fresh area of 20,250 in 2000, CAC

  7. Apple Production, U.S. and Selected States, 1990-2002, in million metric tons Source: USDA

  8. U.S. Apple Production and Selected State Shares, 1990-2002 Source: ERS and NASS, Jan/03 00-02 State Shares . . . . . . . . State Avg Metric Tons 00-02 90-92 % Change WA 2,428,142 56% 46% 17% NY 408,460 9% 11% -16% MI 344,927 8% 9% -16% CA 252,630 6% 8% -31% PA 204,539 5% 5% -5% Other States 690,872 16% 21% -29% US 4,329,569 100% 100% -4%

  9. California Fresh Apple Production, by Variety, 42 lb. Cartons WA Fujis down to 9 million boxes in 02/03 and Pink Ladies down to 500,000; WAC

  10. Western U.S. Fuji Production in 1000 42-lb units Source: U.S. Apple Association, Aug.2003 update

  11. Western U.S. Fuji Production in metric tons Forecast prior to frost 2002 Revised Wa. and Ca. Source: US Apples and 2002 revision from the WAC

  12. US Utilization of Apples 1977-2002 In Million Metric Tons Update: 4,237,100 total Short tons in 2002; 2002 fresh/ proc. shares estimated PROCESSED FRESH Sources: thru 01 ERS/USDA, 10-02; NASS Jan. 03 for 2002 ‘77 ‘80 ‘85 ‘90 ‘95 ’02*

  13. Ave. Item Number in the Ave. US Fresh Produce Department 400 345 350 300 250 173 200 150 100 50 0 Pma study: 574 SKU’s in 2001 Number of items Source: Supermarket Business, Oct. 1999 1987 1998

  14. kg U.S. Per Capita Consumption of Fresh Apples and Pears 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 87/88 97/98 APPLES 7.2 PEARS 1.4 77/78........................92/93......97/98..01/02 Source: ERS, USDA

  15. US Per Capita Utilization of Apples in pounds Source: USDA/ERS

  16. USPER CAPITA FRUIT CONSUMPTION, POUNDS 1977-2001 273 269 90 118 85 Pounds per capita 71 24 26 74 54 Total for 2001 reaches 279 including some berries and olives. Source: USDA/ERS, Oct. 2002

  17. USPER CAPITA VEGETABLE CONSUMPTION, POUNDS, 1976-2001 441 359 123 125 93 Pounds per capita 77 47 50 178 147 115 Source: USDA/ERS, Vegetables and Specialties Yearbook, July 2002

  18. Fresh Apples: U.S. Imports & Exports by Key Country 1997 2002 1992 2001 1000 metric tons IMPEXP IMP EXP IMP EXPIMP EXP Source: ERS, USDA

  19. US Fresh Apple Imports, by Country, 1990-2002 In Thousand Metric Tons Source: Census Bureau, US Dept. of Commerce

  20. US Fresh Apple Exports, by Country, 1990-2002 In Thousand Metric Tons Other Indonesia Hong Kong Canada Source: Bureau of the Census, US Dept. of Commerce Taiwan Mexico

  21. Monthly US Imports of Fresh Apples by Country of Origin in 2002 Source: US DOC Thousand Metric Tons Months

  22. Monthly US Imports of Fresh Apples by Country of Origin in 2001 Source: US DOC Thousand Metric Tons Months

  23. Monthly US Imports of Fresh Apples by Country of Origin in 2000 Source: US DOC Thousand Metric Tons Months

  24. Monthly US Exports of Fresh Apples by Country of Destination in 2002 Thousand Metric Tons Source: US DOC

  25. World Apple Production: Key Trends • China can now provide over 1/3 of all world apple production vs. 11% in 89/91, but area has stabilized. • The shares of production coming from N.A., Former Soviet Union, Other Asia and Europe shrank in the 90s, but Europe increased in absolute volume. • The share of S. American suppliers slipped only slightly in the 90s as production grew about 1 million metric tons to 3.4 million; share changed to 5.6% in 2001 from 6.1% in 89/91. • Recent adjustments downward in US, European, and possibly Chinese production for 2002/03 will likely boost Southern Hemisphere exports in 2003.

  26. World Apple Production by Region (% total) Avg Avg Avg Region 79-81 89-91 98-00 Europe (exc FSU) 38.7 33.0 23.9 North America 13.0 13.6 10.2 South America 4.2 6.1 5.4 Africa 1.5 2.3 2.6 Oceania 1.5 1.7 1.5 F.S.U. 18.2 13.7 5.8 China 8.0 11.1 34.8 Other Asia (exc FSU)14.9 18.6 16.5 World 100.0 100.0 100.0 Source: World Apple Report 2002

  27. Global Pear and Apple Production, Million Metric Tons Sources:FAO and FAS

  28. World Per Capita Fresh Apple Supplies 1990-2001, kilograms per person Production grew by 50% vs. 15% growth in world population. Source: World Apple Review 2002

  29. Apples: Total Production & Net Fresh Production,in million metric tons, Key Selected Countries Total Total Total Fresh Fresh Fresh 99/00... 00/01...2002... Source: FAS, USDA

  30. Chinese Apples – Total Production, Net Fresh Production, Fresh Imports & Exports,in million metric tons 25 20 15 10 5 0 Source: FAS, USDA 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03f

  31. China's Fresh Apple Imports, By Country of Origin, MY 2001 (July-June), Metric Tons Source: FAS

  32. N. Hemisphere Net Fresh Apple Production, Key Countries Excluding China,in million metric tons 18 15 12 9 6 3 0 99/00 00/01 01/02 02/03f Source: FAS, USDA

  33. Southern Hemisphere Big Six: Long-term Upward Trend Broken Source: World Apple Review 2002 and FAS for 2001 and 2002, updated in 2003 metric tons

  34. Apple Production in China, 1997-03, Metric Tons Yantai North Andre Juice Co.,Ltd Area in 2000 of 2,254,100 hectares vs. 2,986,900 in 1996. 50% are Fujis, 12-15% are Red Delicious.

  35. APPLE PRICES IN CHINA Yantai North Andre Juice Co.,Ltd Guo Guang Fuji

  36. Chinese Apple Production, Distribution by Province, 1997-03, metric tons Yantai North Andre Juice Co.,Ltd Projection of 27,605,000 to 31,000,000 Metric tons by 2010; Desmond O’Rourke

  37. Chinese Fruit Production, % of Total by Type Yantai North Andre Juice Co.,Ltd OTHER GRAPES Banana PEARS CITRUS APPLES

  38. Yantai North Andre Juice Co.,Ltd • Close Belt Pressing System for Hygienic Application • 5-Effect Evaporator • Storage in Apple Silo • Ultra Filtration system • R&D/Quality Assurance Center 4.UF 2.Evaporator 1.Belt Press 5.Lab 3.Apple Silo

  39. 1997 – 2001 Chinese AJC Export, by Country Unit : kg Projection of 400,000,000 kg by 2010; Desmond O’Rourke Yantai North Andre Juice Co.,Ltd

  40. US Apple Juice Imports, by Country, 1997-2001 In 1,000 KL Tariff code: 200970 Source: Census Bureau, US Dept. of Commerce

  41. World Fresh Apple Trade by Key Selected Country in million metric tons EXP EXP EXP IMP IMP IMP 99/00 00/01 2002 Source: FAS, USDA

  42. Chilean Apple Exports: Changes in Market Share by Destination Country 92-93 97-98 00-01 01-02 Europe 46% 35% 32% 32% U.S.A. 7% 8% 12% 12% L.America & Caribbean 19% 37% 36% 39% Other 28% 20% 19% 18% Grand Total 100% 100% 100% 100% Source: Chilean Fruit Exporter's Association

  43. Chilean Apple Exports by Destinationin million cartons (18 kg) Other L. America & Caribbean USA Europe Source: Chilean Fruit Exporter's Association

  44. Estimated European Per Capita Fresh Apple Consumption kilograms per capita Source: World Apple Review 2002

  45. Estimated Per Capita Fresh Apple Consumption: Other Major Producing Countries kilograms per capita Source: World Apple Review 2002

  46. US and EU: Trend in Grower Selling Prices for Fresh Apples Indexed to 1985 base = 100 Source: World Apple Review 2002

  47. United States: Annual Average Retail Price of Fresh Red Delicious Apples 1980-2001 cents/lb - current & deflated Source: World Apple Review 2002

  48. WHAT aDOLLAR SPENT forFOOD PAID FOR in 2000 in the USA Labor - 38¢ Packaging - 8.0¢ Transportation - 4.0¢ Business taxes - 3.5¢ Depreciation – 3.5¢ Advertising - 4.0¢ Other costs - 4.0¢ Interest - 2.5¢ Repairs - 1.5¢ Energy - 3.5¢ Profits - 4.5¢ Rent - 4.0¢ 19¢ Marketing bill 81¢ Source: ERS/USDA Farm value 19¢

  49. U.S.: Producer Price Indexes 1991-2001 for Fresh Granny Smith and McIntosh Apples Calendar Years, Base, Dec. 1991 = 100 Source: World Apple Review 2002

  50. Washington State: Relative FOB Prices of New Varieties - 1990-2001 Average price all varieties in each crop year = 100 Source: World Apple Review 2002

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