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Addressing Risk Governance Deficits with Scenario Modeling Practices

Addressing Risk Governance Deficits with Scenario Modeling Practices. Strategic  Foresight &  Innovation. John  Benjamin  Cassel. A Major Research Project submitted in defense of a Masters of Design. the  scope  of  history. Foresight. the inverse of history  .

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Addressing Risk Governance Deficits with Scenario Modeling Practices

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  1. Addressing Risk Governance Deficits with Scenario Modeling Practices Strategic  Foresight &  Innovation John  Benjamin  Cassel A Major Research Project submitted in defense of a Masters of Design

  2. the scope of history

  3. Foresight the inverse of history 

  4. Narratives of a great challenge

  5. Risk

  6. Nobody in their right mindplans for thiswhen bookinga flight

  7. everyday infrastructures  and everyday institutions

  8. Infrastructural Transitions

  9. Inevitable Regrets

  10. How can institutions surviveby merit given inevitable regrets?

  11. Due diligence 

  12. Good Risk Governance

  13. What is good risk governance when considering a plurality of worldviews?

  14. A plurality of stories suggests scenario methods

  15. But the stories we tell are tangled with bad judgment

  16. "What is it about politics that makes people so dumb?"-Daniel Kahneman

  17. "If we're so dumb, how come we're so smart?"-Clark Glymour

  18. Is bad judgment fundamental or are there structurally better ways to ask?

  19. The Burden of Proof is High, but Fair "Promoters of 'debiasing' schemes should shoulder a heavy burden of proof.  Would-be buyers should insist that schemes that purportedly improve 'how they think' be grounded in solid assumptions about  (a) the workings of the human mind and -in particular- how people go about translating vague hunches about causality into the precise probabilistic claims measured here;  (b) the workings of the external environment and -in particular- the likely impact of proposed correctives on the mistakes that people most commonly make in coping with frequently recurring challenges." -from Expert Political Judgment by Philip Tetlock

  20. Purpose • Discovery • How do we find out what we know? • Knowledge Critique • How do we find out what we don't know? • Analysis • What does what we know imply?

  21. Objectives • Engineer scenario representation methodsthat allow for the capture, analysis,storage, and reuse of causal and impact information • Develop elicitation methodsthat progressively delimit and arbitrate governance deficits • Implement simulation methodscapable of demonstrating plausible scenarios fromelicited causal structures • Position uncertainty discoveryas a valid governance need

  22. Limits  Theoretical Contributions More of a thesis than a project  Subject matter large=contribution small

  23. Methodology

  24. Methodological ApproachLayers of Inductive Constraint

  25. Why Technical Methods?

  26. Technical methods are a means of self-skepticism

  27. Core

  28. What aspects of worldview are appropriate to distinguish?

  29. Distinctions objective understanding subjective perceptions objective orientation subjective perception of objective knowledge

  30. Elements objective understanding structures, states-of-affairs, events, dependences,actions, observations, senses, and anticipations subjective perceptionsstakeholders, rewards, and criteria understanding of objective orientationcurrent conditionssubjective perception of objective knowledge deferences

  31. Element Model A model consists of structures, states-of-affairs,  stakeholders, rewards, criteria, events, dependences,actions, observations, senses, anticipations, and deferences

  32. Simulation

  33. But how do you get those elements?

  34. What is a stakeholder, anyway?

  35. Consider two neighboring farmers

  36. They hold similar stakes in some cases

  37. Similar Stakeholders = Similar Preferences

  38. But you can't get there from here

  39. You can discover how people generally put things together

  40. Non-Parametric MethodsWe can reason about the processes by which we discover what we don't know

  41. Chinese Restaurant ProcessAs you ask, you discover the categories you've discovered before, and some new ones, with diminishing returns

  42. Indian Buffet ProcessAs you ask, you discover the features you've discovered before, and some new ones, with diminishing returns

  43. CRP        IBPAs you ask, you find categories with features in proportion to what you've discovered before, and some new ones, with diminishing returns

  44. Inference

  45. You may have shown that discovery processes could generate open models of these elements, but how could open discovery work?

  46. Interview as Depth-first Search(Process) • Create a series of iteratively more specific prompt questions • Search over the responses of each prompt with open-ended questions composed of model elements

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