WOCE 1990-2002 TOGA 1985-1994 GEWEX 1988 SOLAS 2001 -> SPARC 1992 ACSYS/CliC 1994–2003/2000 CLIVAR 1995 WGNE WGCMWGSF IPAB
The WCRP Arctic Climate System Study (ACSYS)(1994 – 2003) A 10 year programme to ascertain the role of the Arctic in the global climate • What are the global consequences of natural or human-induced change in the Arctic climate system? • Is the Arctic climate system as sensitive to increased greenhouse gas concentrations as climate models suggest? Boer et al. (1999)
ACSYS programmes … - Arctic Ocean circulation - Arctic sea ice - Arctic atmosphere - Hydrology of the Arctic drainage basin - Modelling – to bring these elements together
22 April 1866 Launch of ICESat Sketch of CryoSat • The perennial ice cover in the year 2002 was the least extensive during the satellite era. • The perennial ice cover in the year 2003 is a close second but has significantly less ice in the Beaufort/Chuchi/East Siberian Seas. ACSYS – SEA ICE After D. Rothrock Courtesy J. Comiso 1553-1977 • The year 2004 is developing similarly Courtesy T. Agnew
ACSYS – ATMOSPHERE Recent Trends: Surface Temperature Courtesy LDEO Courtesy LDEO Spring Winter Autumn Summer
Recent Trends: Cloud Fraction ACSYS – ATMOSPHERE Courtesy LDEO Courtesy LDEO Spring Winter Autumn Summer The spatial distributions of surface skin temperature trend in Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn during the period of 1982 – 1999 at local solar time of 1400 based on the APP-x data set.
ACSYS – ATMOSPHERE PRECIPITATION Courtesy LDEO Courtesy LDEO Global Precipitation Climatology CentreArctic Precipitation Data ArchiveDWD, Offenbach, Germany Squared Correlations: Observed vs GPCP Satellite retrievals have a hard time dealing with the heterogeneous emissivity of land surfaces, and work best over open ocean regions. The satellite retrievals are considered to be improved after 1987 (the SSM/I era). (courtesy B. Goodison)
ACSYS – ATMOSPHERE PRECIPITATION Courtesy LDEO Courtesy LDEO Squared Correlations, Observed vs. ERA-40 Precipitation Over land, reanalysis is “the way to go”. There are large areas, especially over Eurasia, where ERA-40 performs quite well (squared correlations exceed 0.50). But for many areas, performance appears to be poor. But in data-sparse areas, the “observed” gridded time series are of poor quality. ERA-40 may be performing better than is indicated. (courtesy B. Goodison)
ACSYS – OCEAN (Courtesy O. Yashayaev, 2004) AOMIP area (Courtesy E. Carmack)
Lena Mackenzie Pechora 1 2 Pasvic 1 2 2 3 3 4 Global Run-Off Data CentreArctic Run-off Data BaseFed. Inst. of Hydrology, Koblenz, Germany ACSYS – HYDROLOGY (Courtesy B.J. Petersen et al., 2002) The spatial distributions of surface skin temperature trend in Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn during the period of 1982 – 1999 at local solar time of 1400 based on the APP-x data set.
ACSYS – CRYOSPHERE Passive Microwave derived maximum melt extent 2002 Melt Extent 1992 Melt Extent Greenland ice sheet melt area increased on average by 16% from 1979 to 2002. The smallest melt extent was observed after the Mt. Pinatubo eruption in 1992 University of Colorado Konrad Steffen and Russell Huff, University of Colorado at Boulder The spatial distributions of surface skin temperature trend in Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn during the period of 1982 – 1999 at local solar time of 1400 based on the APP-x data set.
ACSYS – SYNTHESIS Implications of changes in freshwater flux from the Greenland ice sheet for the climate of the 21st century (Fichefet et al., GRL) Climate-change scenario with an AOGCM coupled to a 3-D model of the Greenland ice sheet Collapse of the THC Changes in annual mean SAT (in °C) averaged over years 2096-2100 Changes in annual mean total fresh-water flux from Greenland Freshwater flux from Greenland prescribed Freshwater flux from Greenland interactive The spatial distributions of surface skin temperature trend in Winter, Spring, Summer and Autumn during the period of 1982 – 1999 at local solar time of 1400 based on the APP-x data set.
ACSYS - CliC - CIPO – WCRP – ACSYS CD Arctic Science Summit Week
ACSYS - CliC - CIPO – WCRP – ACSYS CD ACSYS CD 2 CD package CD 1: ACSYS 1994-2003 Archive CD 2: ACSYS Final Science Conference • Browser interface • General Info about ACSYS • Implementation and Achievement • Rational • Committees, Panels, Groups • Metadata for Datasets (Fully Searchable) • List of Papers (Title, Author Searchable) • All Newsletters (PDF) (Table of Content Searchable) • All Reports (PDF) (Title, Author Searchable) • Links (Searchable) • Browser interface • Programme • List of attendees (Name, Organization, Address, e-mail, all searchable) • All Abstracts (text) (Title, Author and abstract content searchable) • All Extended Abstracts (PDF) (Title and Author searchable) • All Presentations (PPT, PDF) (Title and Author searchable) • All Posters (PDF, TIFF) (Title and Author searchable) • Photo Gallery Arctic Science Summit Week Arctic Summit
ACSYS - CliC - CIPO – WCRP – ACSYS CD ACSYS CD Content Arctic Science Summit Week Arctic Summit
ACSYS Final Science Conference Progress in Understanding the Arctic Climate System The ACSYS Decade and Beyond 11-14 November 2003, Arctic and Antarctic Research Institute, St. Petersburg, Russian Federation
Countries Where Cryosphere Occurs 95 countries identified with cryospheric components Cryosphere truly is global ACSYS, regional, -> CliC, global, based on a new approach – frozen water Permafrost, seasonal frozen ground Snow (cover), solid precipitation Fresh water (river-, lake-) ice Marine cryosphere (sea ice, ice shelves,…) Ice sheets, caps, glaciers Cryosphere
Climate & Cryosphere, Goal and Objectives Tokyo, March 2000, a new WCRP core project, sunset in 2015 Principal Goal: To develop and contribute the knowledge of cryosphere into WCRP climate observing, research, modeling, assessment, prediction process and to determine the stability of the global cryosphere in changing climate Supporting Objectives: • Enhance the observation & monitoring of the cryosphere in support of process studies, model evaluation and change detection • Improve understanding of the physical processes and feedbacks through which the cryosphere interacts within the climate system • Improve the representation of cryospheric processes in models to reduce uncertainties in simulation of climate and predictions of climate change
Modeling Activities • Sea-Ice Model Intercomparison Project (SIMIP2) - dynamic, thermodynamic • Arctic Ocean Model Intercomparison Project (AOMIP) • Arctic Regional Climate Model Intercomparison Project (ArcMIP) • Ice sheet model intercomparison (ISMINT) • Permafrost modeling (workshop, with IARC and IPA) • Southern Ocean Modeling (review) • Ice Shelf Ocean Model Intercomparison being planned; • parameterization of vertical mixing; tracer uptake; P-OMIP underway, but not too much interaction with NEG so far. • Snow model intercomparison (with ICSI, SnowMIP, SnowMIP-2) • Parameterizations of land processes in cold climate areas (PILPS2e) Courtesy J. Christensen http://cires.colorado.edu/lynch/arcmip/background.html
Cryospheric Observing System, an IGOS-P proposalby CliC and SCAR, to be led by CliC OPP Combined system for observations of soil, meeting requirements of hydrology, geocryology, climate and biogeochemical modelling • GCOS/GTOS: GTN-P, GTN-G, GTN-H, CALM, etc. • ARCTIC-HYCOS, etc. • AOOS • SO OS • GOOS and JCOMM sea-ice compartments • WGMS, GLIMS Marine Cryosphere Alpine Cryosphere IGOS-P 11, 27 May 2004, Rome MODIS snow cover survey – after K. Steffen
ACSYS - CliC - CIPO - WCRP - Metadata Results Arctic Science Summit Week Arctic Summit
CliC Implementation StrategyCliC Project Areas CliC Science and Co-ordination Plan, 2002 Implementation - through CliC Project Areas: CPA1. Terrestrial cryosphere and hydrometeorology of cold regions Cryospheric data sets for climate models. New area of science and observations: geocryology + hydrology + biogeochemistry + climatology of cold regions, new IPCC scenarios through inclusion of C balance feedback CPA2. Glaciers, ice caps and ice sheets, and their relation to sea level c Goals: sustained world glacier (mass) monitoring system, detailed glacier inventory, reduced uncertainties of cryosphere contribution to MSLR, contribution to water management, better knowledge of alpine cryosphere CPA3. High-latitude oceans and the marine cryosphere l c Arctic Ocean and Southern Ocean Observing Systems, prog-ress in modelling and data assimilation for ocean – sea-ice system, reanalysis of sea-ice in AO, quantitative explanation of sea-ice reduction, reasonable prediction of sea-ice future in AO Goals: polar reanalyses – full scope, improved knowledge of teleconnections, feedbacks, role of cryosphere in global water cycle, inclusion of cryosphere in models and climate prediction, issues like NAM, WAIS, MOC, abrupt change CPA4. Linkages between the cryosphere and global climate cryosphere lc
CliC First Science Conference Cryosphere - The "Frozen" Frontier of Climate Science:Theory, Observations, and Practical Applications 11-15 April 2005 (just the week before ASSW 2005) China Meteorological Administration, Beijing, China • Current Sponsors • World Climate Research Program (WCRP) • China Meteorological Administration (CMA) • Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS) • Chinese Arctic and Antarctic Administration (CAAA) • Natural Science Foundation of China (NSFC) • Norwegian Polar Institute (NPI) • CliC International Project Office (CIPO) • ?
Issues for WGSF: • Radiative fluxes in polar regions • Fluxes in sea-ice covered areas • Polar flux climatology • Flux estimates using a combination of satellite data (SAR, micorwave, etc.) • Water cycle balance - role of polar oceans • Flux data sets for AOMIP and alike • OASIS • AICI • Southern Ocean – C flux • Arctic Ocean – C flux now and then • Sea-Ice retrieval algorithms, intercomparison • Etc.?