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Understanding Wind Gusts: Key Factors and Forecasting Techniques in Meteorology

Wind gusts are temporary increases in wind speed, recorded only for speeds above 10 knots. A squall is characterized by a sudden increase in wind speed of at least 16 knots, sustained for at least one minute. The gustiness of wind is influenced by the strength and changes in the pressure gradient, as well as the depth of mixing in the atmosphere. For effective forecasting of wind gusts, tools like the NAM 4km model can be utilized. Awareness of daytime maximum wind speeds and alignment of wind flow is crucial for accurate predictions.

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Understanding Wind Gusts: Key Factors and Forecasting Techniques in Meteorology

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  1. Forecasting Gusts in EVENTS Meteorology 415 Fall 2012

  2. Wind Gusts • The wind is never constant (in velocity or direction), however gusts are only recorded for speeds > 10kts. • Squall A strong wind characterized by a sudden onset in which the wind speed increases at least 16 knots and is sustained at 22 knots or more for at least one minute.

  3. Wind Gusts • There are three main contributors to the gustiness of the wind: • The strength of the pressure gradient • The change in the pressure gradient field • The depth of mixing

  4. Wind Gusts • Strength of the pressure gradient: In Pennsylvania: 4mb = 7-14kts 8mb = 10-20kts 12mb = 15-25kts 16mb= 20-30kts 20mb= 25-35 kts

  5. Wind Gusts Change in the Pressure Gradient: Isallobaric Component of the wind

  6. Mixing from Aloft

  7. NAM 4km is a very good tool for short range wind forecasts: http://www.mdl.nws.noaa.gov/~glmp/glmp_expr.php

  8. Wind Gusts – use DMO

  9. Wind Gusts • Remember strongest winds tend to occur during the daytime with a maximum around the time of max heating. • In order to mix down strong winds, the flow must be aligned directionally. • A rapidly deepening low pressure system will produce stronger winds over a wider area than an intense, but old low. • Convection can produce strong winds, but it is highly variable.

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