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Enhancements in GFDL Core Physical Climate Model Development: June 2009 Review Insights

This review discusses advancements in the Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory's (GFDL) core physical climate models, particularly highlighting the development of CM3 and its projections. Presented by Mike Winton, the review covers the comparative performance of GFDL models across various IPCC assessments, focusing on improvements in climate simulation for SSTs, sea ice, and Köppen climate classifications. The document emphasizes the evolution from CM2.1 to CM3, showcasing significant reductions in simulation errors and discussing the implications for future climate predictions and decadal forecasts.

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Enhancements in GFDL Core Physical Climate Model Development: June 2009 Review Insights

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  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

  2. GFDL Core Physical Climate Model Development Presented by Mike Winton

  3. GFDL Core Physical Climate Model Development Projections High Res. GFDL Data Server IPCC Core Physical Climate Initialized Prediction CCSP Low Res./Paleo MIPs ESM Alternative Formulations PCMDI Data Server • Core physical climate model • CM3/CM2.1 simulation comparison

  4. Past GFDL climate model IPCC contributions 1990 “FAR” Future projections based largely on GFDL model 1995 “SAR” GFDL model one of ~6 models used for future projections 2001 “TAR” GFDL model is “2nd tier” out of ~12 models 2007 “AR4” GFDL CM models are two of the best out of ~24 models 2013 “AR5” GFDL CM2.1 based ESMs and decadal prediction, new “core” model CM3 Halloween Report Oct 2000 Valentine Memo Feb 2006

  5. AR5 Coupled Model Formulations ESM2G and ESM2M

  6. CM3 has reduced SST errors relative to CM2.1 CM3 CM2.1 CM2.1 • CM3 improvement • Southern ocean • Eastern tropical Pacific • North Pacific CM3

  7. CM3 has reduced NH sea ice cover error relative to CM2.1 CM3 CM2.1

  8. CM3 has reduced Köppen climate errors relative to CM2.1 CM2.1 OBS CM2.1 CM3 CM3 (Gnanadesikan and Stouffer 2006)

  9. CM3 appears on target for the 20th century warming simulation 1990/1860 controls – D global temp. CM3 CM2.1 CM2.1 (Knutson et al 2006)

  10. CM3 vs. CM2.1 Simulation Summary • Improved surface climate simulation: • SST’s, sea ice, Köppen climates, SAT variability (NH land) • Degraded ocean simulation: • SSS, ocean subsurface T & S • Interesting difference: • 20th century forcing/climate sensitivity combination

  11. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

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