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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review. June 30 - July 2, 2009. Ocean Ecosystems and Climate Change. Presented by Charles Stock. Ocean Ecosystems and Climate Change. Enhanced foodweb dynamics in GFDL biogeochemical model (TOPAZ)

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Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory Review

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  1. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

  2. Ocean Ecosystems and Climate Change Presented by Charles Stock

  3. Ocean Ecosystems and Climate Change • Enhanced foodweb dynamics in GFDL biogeochemical model (TOPAZ) • Expanded applications of GFDL models to marine resource prediction

  4. How will climate change impact global fisheries production? "We have low confidence in predictions of future fisheries production because of uncertainty over future global aquatic net primary production and the transfer of that production through the food chain to human consumption." -K.M. Brander, 2007, Global fish production and climate change, PNAS, 104(50), 19709-19714

  5. Independent z-ratio estimates 0.2 0.1 0.03 0.01 Modeled z-ratio 0.2 0.1 0.03 0.01 The ratio of mesozooplankton production to primary production ~10% of primary production transferred to mesozooplankton production in upwelling systems; ~1% in sub-tropical gyres ~1mm Stock and Dunne, Deep-Sea Research, Part I, submitted

  6. A fractional change primary production causes a larger fractional change in mesozooplankton production Independent estimates model Implication: heightened sensitivity of mesozooplankton to climate change Stock and Dunne, Deep-Sea Research, Part I, submitted

  7. Incorporate enhanced ecosystem dynamics into: Historical ocean/ice simulations forced with atmospheric reanalysis Century-scale climate simulations Interannual and decadal scale "initial value" simulations Develop capacity to link with fisheries foodweb models(see Kearney poster) Engage NOAA fisheries laboratories through postdocs and workshops to develop new and innovative applications of GFDL models Toward marine resource prediction at interannual to centennial time-scales

  8. Workshop to develop new GFDL model applications to fisheries prediction June 15-17, 2009 Princeton University Sponsored by: The Cooperative Institute for Climate Sciences between GFDL and Princeton University Applying IPCC-class Models of Global Warming to Fisheries Prediction

  9. Geophysical Fluid Dynamics LaboratoryReview June 30 - July 2, 2009

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