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The converging pattern between Business statistics and Administrative data. Towards an “industrialized” statistical production process The Italian LCS2012 experience Ciro Baldi , Marilena Angela Ciarallo, Stefano De Santis , Silvia Pacini Istat

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  1. The converging pattern between Business statistics and Administrative data. Towards an “industrialized” statistical production process The Italian LCS2012 experience CiroBaldi, Marilena Angela Ciarallo, Stefano De Santis, Silvia Pacini Istat European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Schönbrunn Palace Conference Centre,Vienna, Austria, 2-5 June 2014

  2. Contents • Some remarks on Labourcostsurvey • New Registersbased on new adminsourcesadministrative data assisted survey • Re-design of the LCS 2012: • An administrative data awarequestionnaire • The contactstrategy and the role of the new certified mailing system (PEC) • Re-thinking of sampling, E&I procedures and estimation European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  3. Some information on the LCS The Labourcostsurveyis a 4 yearlysurveyenterprisesurveydesigned to collect information on number of employees, hours worked and paid, wages and laburcosts Defintions of the LCS regulation are verydetailed A quite large number of itemsand subitems are requested The Enterprise shouldretrieve the information requested from variuossystems (the presencesystem for the hours, the payrollsystem for wages and contributions, accounts data for otherlabourcosts) The Enterprise shouldperform a number of calculations The surveyisone of the mostchallenging for the enterprises Verylowresponserates Risks of lot of measurmenterrors European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  4. EmploymentRegister (ER) EmploymentWageRegister (EWR) ) ……;wages; otherlabourcosts; paid time;….. employees; type of contract; employer;.. BusineesWageRegister(BWR) BusineesRegister (BR) New Registerbased on new administrativesources Yesterday: Business Register (BR) with information on totalnumber of employees Today :Based on Social Security data EmploymentWageRegister (EWR) with details on employees, type of contract, wages, a proxy of paid time, otherlabourcosts… StructureEarningSurvey (2014) LabourCostSurvey (2012) European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  5. An administrative data assistedsurvey New administrative sources - Registers Re-design of the LCS 2012 Business Wage Register (employees, wages, paid time, otherlabourcosts,…) Questionnaire design Sampling E&I Estimation PEC Register Collection and contactstrategy European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  6. A bridge • Althoughrich the BWR isnotsufficient to satisfy the LCS regulation • Lacks of detailedsubitemsof wages and labourcosts • Core variablesdo notfitperfectly the regulationdefinitions Build a questionnairethatis a bridge administrativedefinitions statistical defiinitions European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  7. An administrative data awarequestionnaire • Design a questionnairekeeping the administrative data in mindstarting from the administrative data definitions • Explicitreference to the Social security wage • Advantage: separate definitionalerror from measurementerror • Addsubvoices to adjust for definitions (inclusions/exclusions) • Refer to concepts, structures to which the enterprises are accustomed • Overall the questionnairewassimplified • In future: prefill the questionnaire with mainvariables from BWR European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  8. Sampling • Useof the data on wages from the BWR (previousyear) asparameters in the sample allocation • The register data shows highervariability with respect to previoussurvey, maybebecause of self selection of respondentstowardhigherwagesenteprises • The allocationamongstrataissensiblydifferent from oneperformedusingparameters from sample surveys European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  9. Contactstrategy: the use of the PEC system • Since July 2013 the exchange of information and documents between public administrations and enterprises must occur only through Certified Email (PEC) . • All enterprises must have a PEC address registered at the Chamber of Commerce Business Register (CCBR). • Safe protocols for secure transmission • Receipt with date and hour of delivery • Same legal value of a post letter sent by recorded delivery and receipt return. European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  10. Pecsendingsystem The first sending First sending and reminders: more than 47000 pec for 20000 sampledunits Advantages: Costsreduction Preparation time reduced Flexibility: adaptability to surveynecessisities Controllability of delivery results European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  11. Pec vs post contact: responserates Responserates by mode of first sending European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  12. Editing & Imputation1 - Recall of influententeprises • During data collection a recall of influententerpriseswascarried out. • Identification of recalligunitsperformed with Selemix • Identifyinfluententerprisesamongoutliersdetected with mixturemodels • One of the modelschecknumber of employees, wages and hours paidagainst BWR counterparts • Allowed to detectcategories of errors: • Reporting for part of the enterprises • Reporting for part of the workforce • Grossmeasurementerrors • YearlyEmploymentaveragemismeasured in case of large turnover • Allowed to detecterrorsin admin data aswell • Feedback to the people in charge of the register European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  13. Editing & Imputation2 • Editing of enterprises with significantdiscrepancies with admin data (in progress) • Substituteadmin data (benchmark values) • Editing planbecomes more complexsince: • How to choosethresholds for errors • Anotherdimensionbesides the normal intra surveyedits • E&I based on admin data comparisonshould control muchbetter the measurementerrors European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  14. Editing & Imputation 3 and calibration • Integration of mainvariables and pass throughvariables for total non responsesusingadmin data. Base for subsequentdonorimputation for secondaryvariables • Calibration • Using employment and wages from BWR asauxiliaryvariables • Highly correlated with target variablesreduceresponsebias and precision of estimates European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  15. Finalremarks • E&I and estimation are on going by now. Onlyprovisionalremarks: • Simplificationof the questionnaire, PEC sending and reminders, together with otherelements of contact and collectionstrategy (web questionnaire, telephonecontactsetc)  • increase of response rate compared to previouseditions • Editing based on comparison with admin data allow to better control the measurementerrors. • Sampling and Calibrationusingadmin data on wagesshouldreduce samplingerrors • In the future: • Conducting studies in order to use available variables to minimize the sample size • Prefilling the questionnaire with mainvariables European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

  16. Thankyou for yourattention Ciro Baldi baldi@istat.it European Conference on Quality in Official Statistics, Vienna, 2-5 June 2014

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