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MC11: A new opportunity to reduce distortions in the agricultural global trade system

Negociaciones agrícolas en la OMC: ¿qué está en juego en la Conferencia Ministerial de Buenos Aires ?. MC11: A new opportunity to reduce distortions in the agricultural global trade system David Laborde , Valeria Piñeiro, Joe Glauber. Overview.

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MC11: A new opportunity to reduce distortions in the agricultural global trade system

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  1. Negociaciones agrícolas en la OMC: ¿qué está en juego en la Conferencia Ministerial de Buenos Aires?

  2. MC11: A new opportunity to reduce distortions in the agricultural global trade system David Laborde, Valeria Piñeiro, JoeGlauber

  3. Overview What should be done to reduce distortions in agricultural world markets? What can be done to reduce distortions in agricultural world markets? Quantifying options

  4. Existing WTO framework • Anexo 2 del Acuerdo sobre la Agricultura • Anexo 2- Compartimento verde • Artículo 6 del Acuerdo sobre la Agricultura • Párrafo 2- Programas de desarrollo • Párrafo 5- Programas que limitan la producción (compartimiento azul) • Párrafo 4- De minimis • Párrafo 3- MGA total corriente • PlayingwithBoxes: Green, Blue and Amber

  5. Changing Markets Fuente: Laborde 2014

  6. Changing Policies Fuente: ICTSD 2017

  7. More on the last 20 years A new book • UnderstandingwhytheDoha Round has failed • TheCost of Failure • PotentialSolutions • Policyspaceand riskmanagement • Beyonddomesticsupport https://www.ifpri.org/blog/ifpri-book-launch-how-trade-policies-can-foster-food-security

  8. Analytical Framework http://www.ifpri.org/publication/modeling-international-relationships-applied-general-equilibrium-mirage-model

  9. Scenario Design Key Concept: Overall Trade Distorting Support or OTDS But Details matter! But details matter! Scenario Design

  10. Impact on policy space Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP modelsimulations 2017

  11. Impact on applied policies Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP modelsimulations 2017

  12. Impact on world markets Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP modelsimulations 2017

  13. Impact on exports (volume) Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP modelsimulations 2017

  14. Impact on real farmer income Scenario Design Fuente: MIRAGRODEP modelsimulations 2017

  15. Concluding remarks • Reformingthe Uruguay Round domesticsupportpolicyframeworkispossible and needed • Notdoingitisincreasinglycostly • Disciplingpolicyspace in bothdeveloping and developedworld: role of emergingcountries • Basic reformwillhaveverylimitedimpacts in thenext 10 years • More ambitiousreformswithadequateproductlimitcoulddeliversignificantgainsforsomecommodities: Veryimportant to properly define “productlimit”

  16. ¡Muchas Gracias!

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