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EXTRACTING FORECASTING OR QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MARKET

EXTRACTING FORECASTING OR QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MARKET. You are completing an appraisal in an area where normal marketing time is 150-210 days. You have gathered data on sales under 120 days and over 120 days in order to possibly extract a forecasting adjustment.

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EXTRACTING FORECASTING OR QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MARKET

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  1. EXTRACTING FORECASTING OR QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS FROM THE MARKET You are completing an appraisal in an area where normal marketing time is 150-210 days. You have gathered data on sales under 120 days and over 120 days in order to possibly extract a forecasting adjustment. After preliminary analysis, you decide that an analysis of sales price per square foot would be most appropriate.

  2. FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Table 1: Sales under 120 days on market Mean = $115.77 median = $116.67 Reconciliation: most similar = $245,000.

  3. FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Table 2: Sales over 120 days on market Mean = $128.51 Median = $130.54 Reconciliation: most similar = $275,000.

  4. FORECASTING/QUIUCK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Sales Price Per Square Foot Over 120 days: Mean - $128.51 Median - $130.54 Under 120 days: Mean - $115.77 Median - $116.67 Difference: Mean - $12.74 Median - $ 13.87 Reconciliation of data: Over 120 days: Sale #2 $275,000 = $131.76 Under 120 days: Sale #5 $245,000 = $116.67

  5. FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Calculated as percentages: $12.74/$115.77 = .110 or 11.0% (using Mean) $13.87/$116.67 = .119 or 11.9% (using Median) Based strictly on the statistical analysis: What would your forecasting adjustment be on a $272,000 sale that was on the market for 180 days? (Answer: $31,280 at 11.5%. Anticipated Sale Price/Quick Sale Value = $240,720)

  6. FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS Reconciliation: Calculated as a percentage: $245,000/$275,000 = .109 or 11% (rounded) $ 116.67/$131.76 = .115 or 11.5% Based on the Reconciliation percentage: What would your forecasting adjustment be on a $272,000 sale that was on the market for 180 days? (Answer: $29,290 at 11%. Anticipated Sale Price/Quick Sale Value = $242,080.)

  7. FORECASTING/QUICK SALE ADJUSTMENTS- ADDITIONAL MEASURES Raw Mean Sale Price* $250,200 - $271,000 = ($20,800) = 7.7% Raw Median Sale Price** $245,000 - $275,000 = ($30,000)= 10.9% *Percentage based on over 120 days Raw Mean Sale Prices **Percentage based on over 120 days Raw Median Sale Prices

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