Acquiring Human Capital Through the Generations Through Migration

1. Acquiring Human Capital Through the Generations Through Migration James P. Smith Liam Delaney

2. Goal of the Research • International migration as a pathway to acquiring Human Capital for succeeding generations • Study international migration to the United States from the important European sending countries over the last two centuries • England, Germany, Ireland, Scandinavian countries, Scotland, Italy, and Poland • 70% of European migrants to the US between 1850 and 1970

3. Scale of European Migration to the United States

4. European Sending Countries as % of European Migrants to USA

5. Sources of Data—What do we need to know • Education – Years of Schooling Completed • Immigrant Generations – 1st (immigrants), 2nd(American born children of immigrants), 3rd+(grandchildren of immigrants), etc., etc. • Country of Origin or Ethnicity used for 4th plus or 3rd plus

6. Sources of Data • Decennial Censuses—1940-1970 • Education 1st asked in 1940 • Current Population Surveys (CPS) since 1994 • American Community Survey (since 2000) • General Social Survey since 1994 • 1st. 2nd. 3rd. 4+ generations

7. Defining the Generations • 1st Generation = Country of Birth not in USA but in one of these European countries • 2nd Generation = Born in the USA and a parent born outside the USA and in one of these European countries • 3rd Generation+ = Person and Parents Born in USA but claims an European ethnic heritage from these countries • Or grandparents born in this list of European countries or grandparents born in one of these European countries

8. Data—Possible Sources of Bias • Mortality Bias with less educated dying sooner • Exaggeration Bias increasing education over time • Emigration Bias • Childhood Immigrant Bias • Length of Generation Bias • Cannot eliminate these biases completely, but can mitigate them and access them • Work is continuing on this

9. Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish Males

10. Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish Males

11. What I do with these numbers? • Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin • Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country • Compute generational gains in education from immigration

12. Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Males

13. Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Females

14. Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Males

15. Education by Immigrant Generation by Year of Birth—Females

16. Within Country Heterogeneity- Men

17. Within Country Heterogeneity- Men

18. Within Country Heterogeneity- Women

19. Within Country Heterogeneity- Women

20. What I do with these numbers? • Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin • Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country • Compute generational gains in education from immigration

21. Gender Difference in Education by Generation—English Men minus Women

22. Gender Difference in Education by Generation—German Men minus Women

23. Gender Difference in Education by Generation—Italian Men minus Women

24. Gender Difference in Education by Generation—Irish Men minus Women

25. What I do with these numbers? • Examine time series education trends for immigrants themselves by country or origin • Look at gender differences for each immigrant generation by country • Compute generational gains in education from immigration

26. Example: Education by Migrant Generation by Birth Year—Irish Males

27. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

28. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

29. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

30. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

31. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

32. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Males

33. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

34. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

35. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females Gain if Stay

36. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

37. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

38. Education Gain of Second Generation Immigrants—Females

39. What can we say about constant migration selection assumption? • No real data for 19th and early part of 20th century since European data on mean education by birth cohorts almost non-existent over that period • Theory might help about plausible direction of trends • For more recent 20th century birth cohorts there are sources of comparable education data in Europe • This is a work in progress

40. Theory - Basic Selection Model

41. Selection Model—Implications • As cost of migration goes up, migrants are more positively selected in education • As income differences between US and sending countries contracts (βo), migrants are more positively selected

42. Income of European Countries Relative to the United States—1870- 2000

43. Income of European Countries Relative to the United States—1920-2000

44. Income of European Countries Relative to the United States

45. Income of European Countries Relative to the United States

46. What happened to selection movers • In 19th century in era of unrestricted migration • migration costs probably fell • Income excess of UK fell but no real trends in other countries until late 19th century • In first part 20th century incomes rose relative to US • In second part of 20th century, relative incomes of Italy and especially Ireland rose- BUT • international European migrants became supply restricted and were largely (75%) family related visas (spouses, siblings, parents)

47. Education Selection by Gender • Compute Education levels in European sending countries by birth cohorts using European General Social Survey education • Diff- Ed of Migrants – Ed of Stayers by Birth Cohort

48. Male Education by Birth Cohorts in European Sending Countries—Men and Diff between Immigrant and Stayer Education

49. Female Education by Birth Cohorts in European Sending Countries—Women and Diff between Immigrant and Stayer Education

50. Conclusions • Large heterogeneity within and across countries in European migrants to the USA • Measuring Human Capital gains through international migration across generations requires knowing what was happening in sending and receiving countries • In the European context, these gains are particularly large among Polish and Italian migrants