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U.S. Soybean Outlook for 2010 and Beyond

In this detailed outlook, Chad Hart, an Assistant Professor and Grain Markets Specialist, examines the U.S. soybean supply and demand dynamics for 2010 and beyond. Key insights include the impact of economic conditions, exchange rates, and crude oil prices on soybean prices. The report emphasizes factors such as export strength, declining livestock numbers, and record soybean production in South America. Price projections indicate potential trends for corn and soybeans based on current markets. For additional resources and updates on the agricultural market, visit Chad Hart's website.

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U.S. Soybean Outlook for 2010 and Beyond

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  1. Soybean Outlook for 2010 & Beyond Mar. 9, 2010 Chad Hart Assistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist chart@iastate.edu 515-294-9911

  2. U.S. Soybean Supply and Use Source: USDA

  3. Storage Issues Source: Hurburgh and Elmore, ICM News, 10/15/09

  4. World Soybean Production Source: USDA

  5. Soybeans – Argentina & Brazil Source: USDA

  6. Exchange Rates (Jan. 2003 = 1) Source: USDA, ERS

  7. Soybean Export Sales Source: USDA, FAS

  8. 2009 U.S. Soybean Exports Source: USDA, FAS

  9. Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

  10. Crude Oil Prices Sources: EIA, NYMEX

  11. Projected 2009 Season-Average Soy Price

  12. Soybean Futures Source: CBOT, 3/8/10

  13. Ratio: Nov. 2010 Soy/Dec. 2010 Corn Source: CBOT

  14. Input Costs Source: USDA, Agricultural Prices, Feb. 26, 2010

  15. Thoughts for 2009/10 and Beyond • General economic conditions • Projected economic recovery is a major key for crop prices • Weakness in the dollar helps exports, but dollar may fight back • Nearby crude oil prices floating in near $80 • Supply/demand concerns • Livestock numbers continue to decline • South America: Record soybean crop • 2009/10: USDA: Corn $3.70, Soy $9.45 Futures: Corn $3.54, Soy $9.37 • 2010/11: USDA: Corn $3.60, Soy $8.80 Futures: Corn $3.87, Soy $8.98

  16. Thank you for your time!Any questions?My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/hart/Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/outreach/agriculture/periodicals/ifo/Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

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