Economic Outlook November 2010
Recession Impact • Fewer Moving • Delay in Marriage • One Car • Office at Home • More Education
Why is the U.S. economic growth so lackluster?
Distress Distressed Home Sales
State & Local Governments
Fiscal Stimulus No Ammunition
OOOOOOoooutp Output Gap
Why QE? • Short Rate Zero • Lower Bond Yields • Weaker Dollar
Double-dip Yes/No ?
No Double-dip? • Tax Cuts • QE2 • Low Base
Inflation or Deflation
Why No Deflation Inflation Expectations Wage Rigidities Import Prices Monetary Policy
No Deflation Inflation Eventually Cost Push Excess Cap. Diminishes Taxes Fees
Assessments of Government Economic Policy University of Michigan
90 Days after Mid-term (1922-2006) 8.5 percent
Key Issues Tax & Budget Energy Trade China Currency Financial Reform Housing Finance Health care Immigration