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Towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index: Enhancing Coordination and Preparedness

The Open Humanitarian Risk Index (OHRI) aims to provide a comprehensive, transparent, and widely accepted evidence base for humanitarian action. Co-chaired by Tony Craig and Tom De Groeve, the OHRI focuses on disaster risk reduction (DRR) and emergency readiness by presenting a common risk picture for humanitarians, donors, and member states. With global coverage and seasonal variations, the OHRI utilizes open data and evidence, fostering collaboration among agencies, governments, NGOs, and academia to better understand and address humanitarian risks.

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Towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index: Enhancing Coordination and Preparedness

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  1. towards an Open Humanitarian Risk Index • A comprehensive, widely-accepted and open evidence base with which to reach common understanding and coordinated action • Tony Craig, co-chair IASC Sub Working Group on Preparedness • Tom De Groeve, Joint Research Centre of the European Commission

  2. Open Humanitarian Risk Index A shared, transparent humanitarian risk index with globalcoverage, regional / sub-national detail and seasonal variation

  3. Why do we need an Open Humanitarian Risk Index? • Goals • OHRI will help • humanitarians, donors, member states and other actors • focus DRR and emergency readiness • on a common risk picture • OHRI will be open • with all data and methods available free online Objectives • Support DRR, funding and readiness decisions with evidence • Complement existing • risk-focused early warning at the IASC SWG for Preparedness • needs assessments in ECHO and other organisations • Enable regional / sub-national perspective

  4. 5 principles • Global coverage • datasets with broad global coverage • international standards for the calculation of missing values • future development will aim for subnational analysis • Openness • evidence collectively gathered • owned by the public, agencies, governments, NGOs and academia, • Participation of agencies that generate much of the source data • Continuity • five years of historical data • Transparency • methodology and data sources will be published and available for review • Flexibility • a standalone model to establish a common, basic understanding of risk • provide a framework for incorporating additional components to allow for more nuanced analysis of specific issues or geographic regions.

  5. Current partners • OCHA • UNICEF • WFP • UNHCR • WHO • FAO • ECHO • DFID (UK) • JRC • ISDR • Interested • World Economic Forum, World Bank

  6. Risk Model • Based on previous work • Global Focus Model (OCHA) • 2006-2013 • Global Needs Assessment (ECHO) • 2004-2013 • Based on available data • Mostly provided by partners (e.g. refugees, health, children) • Model • Multiplicative model • Hazard: natural and man-made • Vulnerability: population • Capacity: emergency management x x

  7. Statistical soundness • Joint Research Center of the European Commission • Database implementation • Statistical audit • Also for HDI etc. • Issues • Multiplicative model • Geometric average versus arithmetic average • Weights and implicit weights • Basket independent normalization • Missing data handling

  8. Seasonal risk index • Hazard • Seasons: cyclone, monsoon • El Nino, ENSO • Vulnerability • Crop seasons, migration patterns Draft

  9. Regional / sub-national risk index • Selected countries or regions • In collaboration with countries • Same overall methodology as global • Substitution of sub-indicators allowed Draft

  10. Additional component: Crisis Index • Goal: continuous update of the OHRI requires up-to-date data • Fastest changing data are: • Natural Hazards (recent disasters) • Human Hazards (new conflicts) • Refugee / IDP population • How is this used? • Not used in standard OHRI • Used in specific versions of methodology (e.g. ECHO’s Global Needs Assessment, which emphasizes new and ongoing hazards) Crisis Index Conflict Refugees / IDPs Recent disasters

  11. Timeline… time to join? • October 2012: conceived by core group, joining initiatives at UN and in European Commission • January 2013: proof of concept, analysis of correlation of existing models • March 2013: first model • May 2013: public presentation of initiative at Global Platform Please talk to us to participate • June-August 2013: building partnerships and collecting support • October 2013: technical meeting, early results • January 2014: First publication of OHRI

  12. Web site and Contacts ohri.jrc.ec.europa.eu IASC SWG on Preparedness: Co-chairs anthony.craig@wfp.org mlepechoux@unicef.org Joint Research Centre (technical contact point) tom.de-groeve@jrc.ec.europa.eu

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