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Data, Energy Costs, Global Warming, and Traveler Behavior: an MPO Perspective

Data, Energy Costs, Global Warming, and Traveler Behavior: an MPO Perspective. Chuck Purvis Metropolitan Transportation Commission Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting Session #681: Travel Data Users Forum Wednesday, January 16, 2008. Presentation Overview.

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Data, Energy Costs, Global Warming, and Traveler Behavior: an MPO Perspective

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  1. Data, Energy Costs, Global Warming, and Traveler Behavior: an MPO Perspective Chuck Purvis Metropolitan Transportation Commission Transportation Research Board Annual Meeting Session #681: Travel Data Users Forum Wednesday, January 16, 2008

  2. Presentation Overview • Non-Attainment Area MPO Requirements • Air Quality Conformity Analysis • Latest Planning Assumptions • California MPO Requirements / Legislation • California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) • California’s Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB32) • Pavley Bill of 2002 (AB1493) • MTC’s Vision 2035 Analysis (Fall 2007) • Pricing, Land Use, Network Alternatives & Scenarios • Regional CO2 Target • Current & Future Data Needs • NHTS, CEX, revival of RTECS • MPO Travel Behavior Surveys

  3. Non-Attainment MPO Requirements • Conformity Analysis for Long Range Plan and TIP • Criteria Pollutants: CO, ROG, NOx, [PM2.5, PM10] • Not required to provide info on CO2 or Fuel Consumption • Future year emissions do not exceed emissions budget(s) • Latest Planning Assumptions • Socio-Economic Land Use Assumptions • Network Assumptions • Travel Behavior Assumptions / Methodologies • Pricing Assumptions • Transit Fares; Parking Costs; Bridge Tolls • Gas Price; Fuel Economy; Non-Gasoline Operating Costs

  4. Current Gas Prices in the United States Gas Prices by County as of 5/23/06

  5. Current Gas Prices in the United States Gas Prices by County as of 1/7/08

  6. Current Gas Prices in Europe(November 2007)

  7. Calif. MPO Requirements & Legislation • California Environmental Quality Act (CEQA) • Requires Program-Level Environmental Impact Report (EIR) for the MPO Long Range Transportation Plan • California Attorney General: “The Draft EIR Should Consider Global Warming Impacts, Mitigation Measures and Alternatives” • California Global Warming Solutions Act of 2006 (AB32) • Requires reduction of the State’s GHG emissions to 1990 levels by 2020. [Governor’s Executive Order: by 2050, reduce emissions to 80 percent below 1990 levels.] • Pavley Bill (AB1493, 2002) • California Air Resources Board to establish emission standards • CO2 emissions should be less than 323 grams/mile starting with model year 2009; 205 grams/mile starting in 2016 model year

  8. CARB/Pavley vs New 2007 Federal CAFE Source: MTC chart based on CARB Technical Assessment, 1/2/08

  9. MTC Vision 2035 Analysis: Assumptions

  10. MTC Vision 2035 Analysis: Results

  11. MTC Vision 2035 Analysis:Transportation Affordability Share of Household Income Spent on Auto Operating Costs

  12. MTC Vision 2035 Analysis:Transportation Affordability Share of Household Income Spent on TOTAL Transportation Costs

  13. MTC Vision 2035 Analysis:Can We Achieve Our Regional Greenhouse Gas (C02) Target? • Yes, but need it all: pricing, land use, transportation investments, and…. • Vehicle Technology • Gasoline-powered “Pavley-consistent” • Gasoline-powered pre-Model Year 2009 • Electric • Hydrogen Fuel Cell • Plug-In Hybrid

  14. Future Data Needs • Consumer Expenditure Survey (CEX) • Critical for any transportation/housing affordability analyses • Need more contextual data: e.g., urban/suburban/rural characteristics of respondents to understand energy consumption of urban vs suburban households • Residential Transportation Energy Consumption Survey (RTECS) • Conducted by US EIA between 1983 and 1994. • Replace by the NHTS in 2001/02. • National Household Travel Survey (NHTS) • Conducted by US DOT between 1969 and 2001, plans for 2008?

  15. Data Needs to Support Analysis • Vehicle Acquisition Modeling • Duration Choice Modeling • When do households choose to replace a household vehicle? • If gas prices were to escalate, say, to $5.00 per gallon, would households accelerate their vehicle replacements? • Vehicle Ownership Modeling • Discrete Choice Models • How many vehicles does a household choose to own/lease? • Need for simple, disaggregate choice models for use in planning charrettes, as well as more elaborate model systems • Vehicle Use Modeling • Model form? • Need for simple, disaggregate choice models for use in planning charrettes

  16. Data Needs to Support Cities • Cities for Climate Change • ICLEI – Local Governments for Sustainability • What Can MPOs Provide Local Communities? • VMT occurring in community (e.g., HPMS, 1990-2006; or travel models) • VMT produced by households residing in community (e.g., home-based travel from trip-based models; all personal travel from activity-based models) • VMT produced by households by relevant market segment (e.g., urban households; suburban households; TOD households) based on regional household travel surveys • How Else Can MPOs Collaborate to Obtain Data • Vehicle Inspection/Maintenance records with odometer data, linked to vehicle registration files (e.g., CARB/MTC work on BAR/DMV) • Other statewide databases (e.g. Fuel Consumption)?

  17. Characteristics by Residential Proximityto Rail/Ferry TransitBay Area Travel Survey 2000

  18. Year 2006 Average Weekday Carbon Dioxide Emissions per Householdby Zone-of-Residence

  19. Data, Energy Costs, Global Warming, and Traveler Behavior: an MPO Perspective For More Information: Chuck Purvis Metropolitan Transportation Commission CPurvis@mtc.ca.gov 510-817-5755 http://www.mtc.ca.gov/

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