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65 th Interdepartmenal Hurricane Conference Miami, FL (Tuesday, March 1 st )

Major Upgrades Planned in 2011 for GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Prediction Systems Morris A. Bender (NOAA/GFDL) Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, and Richard Yablonsky University of Rhode Island. 65 th Interdepartmenal Hurricane Conference Miami, FL (Tuesday, March 1 st ).

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65 th Interdepartmenal Hurricane Conference Miami, FL (Tuesday, March 1 st )

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  1. Major Upgrades Planned in 2011 for GFDL/GFDN Hurricane Prediction SystemsMorris A. Bender (NOAA/GFDL) Isaac Ginis, Biju Thomas, and Richard YablonskyUniversity of Rhode Island 65thInterdepartmenal Hurricane Conference Miami, FL (Tuesday, March 1st)

  2. Need to Address Degraded Track Skill in the GFDL model in the 4-5 day range

  3. Major Upgrades Planned in GFDL/GFDN for the 2011 Hurricane/Typhoon Season • Upgrade of the Simplified Arakawa-Schubert (SAS) Deep Convection • Implementation of Shallow Convection • Upgrade of GFS PBL Scheme will be tested in parallel for 2012 implementation • Modified enthalpy (ch) exchange coefficient • Numerous bug fixes • Modified Dissipative Heating • Expansion of Ocean Coupling region in Eastern Atlantic

  4. EVALUATION OF TRACK ERROR WITH 2011 UPGRADED GFDL SYSTEM

  5. Significantly Reduced Track Error in Atlantic Basin (All results with new GFDL are also with upgraded GFS) Normalized Track Error Track Error in Nautical Miles Total number of runs: 290

  6. Reduction in Track Error Averaged 20% at most Forecast time levels for the 4 Long-Lived Intense Hurricanes(Danielle, Earl, Igor, Julia - 143 cases) Track Error in Nautical Miles Normalized Track Error Total number of runs: 140

  7. Hurricane Danielle August 22nd, 12z August 23rd, 00z OLD GFDL OLD GFDL NEW GFDL NEW GFDL August 23rd, 12z August 24th, 12z OLD GFDL OLD GFDL NEW GFDL NEW GFDL

  8. Hurricane Earl August 29th, 12z August 29th, 0z dd NEW GFDL NEW GFDL OLD GFDL OLD GFDL August 30th, 0z August 30th, 6z NEW GFDL OLD GFDL NEW GFDL OLD GFDL

  9. Hurricane Igor September 9th, 12z September 10th, 0z OLD GFDL OLD GFDL NEW GFDL September 12th, 18z September 13th, 6z OLD GFDL OLD GFDL OLD GFDL NEW GFDL NEW GFDL

  10. Hurricane Julia September 12th, 18z September 13th, 06z NEW GFDL OLD GFDL OLD GFDL September 13th, 18z September 14th, 06z NEW GFDL OLD GFDL

  11. Hurricane Alex June 26th, 0z June 26th, 18z OLD GFDL New model had better tracks but fast speed bias. ) June 27th, 12z June 28th, 06z OLD GFDL NEW GFDL NEW GFDL

  12. Hurricane Richard October 21st, 6z October 21st, 0z OLD GFDL NEW GFS OLD GFDL with NEW GFS OLD GFDL OLD GFDL NEW GFDL with NEW GFS October 21st, 12z October 21st, 18z OLD GFDL OLD GFDL OLD GFDL with NEW GFS NEW GFDL with NEW GFS NEW GFDL with NEW GFS

  13. Hurricane Tomas October 30th, 18z November 1st, 12z NEW GFDL OLD GFDL November 2nd 12z November 3rd 12z NEW GFDL

  14. TRACK DEGRADATION IN EASTERN PACIFIC IN LONGER TIME(Limited Cases, primarily impact of Celia:northward bias with straight moving storm) Track Error in Nautical Miles Normalized Track Error Total number of runs: 103

  15. Hurricane Celia was the only long lived storm (where most of the skill was lost) June 20th, 0Z June 21st , 0Z OLD GFDL NEW GFDL June 22nd , 0Z June 24th , 0Z OLD GFDL NEW GFDL New model able to forecast subtle looping

  16. Hurricane Darby June 23rd , 0Z June 23rd, 6Z OLD GFDL OLD GFDL June 23rd, 12Z June 23rd, 18Z OLD GFDL OLD GFDL NEW GFDL NEW GFDL

  17. Hurricane Estelle August 6th, 6Z August 6th, 0Z OLD GFDL OLD GFDL NEW GFDL NEW GFDL August 6th, 12Z OLD GFDL NEW GFDL

  18. Hurricane Frank August 23rd, 0Z August 22nd , 12Z OLD GFDL NEW GFDL August 24th, 0Z August 23rd , 12Z NEW GFDL NEW GFDL OLD GFDL

  19. EVALUATION OF INTENSITY SKILL WITH 2011 UPGRADED GFDL SYSTEM

  20. ATLANTIC INTENSITY ERRORS TOMAS REMOVED Total number of runs: 290 Total number of runs: 259

  21. Current Operational Model Also Had Degraded Intensity Error in Atlantic with New GFS Analysis TOMAS REMOVED

  22. EAST PACIFIC INTENSITY ERRORS LARGE NEGATIVE BIAS REDUCED INTENSITY BIAS IN KNOTS 12 24 36 48 72 96 120 OLD -4.2 -55 -5.2 -7.7 -11.8 -16.0 -18.3 NEW -3.7 -4.6 -3.2 -3.8 0.4 0.7 -1.7 Hurricane Celia Maximum Winds (kts) NEW GFDL OLD GFDL Jun 20th , 12Z

  23. UPGRADED GFDL FORECAST SYSTEM DEMONSTRATES SIGNFICIANTLY REDUCED ATLANTIC TRACK ERRORS PARTICULARLY IN THE 4-5 DAY FORECAST PERIOD. DEGRADED TRACK SKILL IN EASTERN PACIFIC BUT VERY LIMITED SAMPLE SIZE. INTENSITY SKILL WAS IMPROVED IN THE EASTERN PACIFIC BUT DEGRADED IN THE ATLANTIC IN THE 3-4 DAY FORECAST PERIOD PRIMARILY DUE TO OVER PREDICTION OF TOMAS.

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