1. (Over)Reacting to Trends in Violent Crime Jeffrey A. Butts, Ph.D. August 6, 20093:00 pm Auditorium Washington Renaissance Hotel Juvenile Crime: Trends and Perceptions Presented to the Juvenile Detention Alternatives Initiative Conference, Annie E. Casey Foundation

2. Crime Trends are Easily Distorted by Policymakers for Temporary Political Gain • Especially violent crime and drug crime • Especially juvenile crime • Some distortions may even be well-intended (e.g., to focus lawmakers on domestic issues)

3. National Trends in Juvenile Arrests

5. This increase, while not large in relative terms, captured the attention of policymakers and the news media in 2006 and 2007. It was almost entirely due to a change in robbery arrest rates.

17. Note the similarity in robbery arrest rates and weapon arrest rates.

18. Common Debating Trick • Dismiss national trends as meaningless • Argue that focus should be on local data • Cherry-pick data that best suits your argument

19. Violent Crime in 100 U.S. Cities Chapin Hall at the University of Chicago 2008 Method: Simple Visual Inspection of Long-Term Trends

20. 100 Largest Cities Participating in UCR from 1985-2007 • 4 Types of Crime Trends n % (pop.) • Generally Decreasing 50 67% • Relatively Stable/Unclear 24 14% • Increasing Somewhat 17 13% • Generally Increasing 9 6% 100 100%

21. Generally Decreasing 50 Cities 67% of the population Including: Albuquerque Houston New York Anaheim Jacksonville Newark Baltimore Long Beach Phoenix Boston Los Angeles Raleigh Chicago Miami San Diego Dallas Nashville Seattle

22. Stable or Unclear Trends 24 Cities 14% of the population

23. Increasing Somewhat 17 Cities 13% of the population

24. Generally Increasing In the remaining 9 cities (6% of the population) Violent crime grew either:(1) in a relatively sustained way, or (2) so sharply that the gains from the 1990s were being nearly erased

25. Generally Increasing Anchorage, AK Lexington, KY Birmingham, AL Modesto, CA Fremont, CA Norfolk, VA Greensboro, NC Pittsburgh, PA Las Vegas, NV In all but one of these cities (Anchorage), violent crime fell between 2007 and 2008

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44. Simply Put:Crime rates just vary – usually in unexplainable and unpredictable waysWe are most likely to distort the meaning of trends when we try to interpret short-term changes (2 or 3 years)Just look at 4 of the cities we were all very worried about in 2005 and 2006…

45. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

46. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

47. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

48. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

49. Cities With Previously Disturbing Trends

50. The only thing we know about the future is that it will be different. - Peter Drucker