A Global Ocean Observing System in a Global Framework for Climate Services

1. a Global Ocean Observing System in a Global Framework for Climate Services Albert Fischer Director a.i., GOOS Project Office, IOC/UNESCO 24 August 2011, WMO, Geneva, Switzerland Observing the oceans from the surfaceObserving the oceans from the surface

2. Monitoring oceans for climate services:Timescales of climate variability and the ocean The oceans are the memory of the climate system for longer timescales. The variability of different pieces of the climate system has different characteristic timescales.The oceans are the memory of the climate system for longer timescales. The variability of different pieces of the climate system has different characteristic timescales.

3. An example from the headlines: drought in East Africa

4. Monitoring oceans for climate services:IPCC AR4 (2007): 100-year projections of temperature and precipitation for Africa

5. Famine in East Africa today:Short rains season dry at end 2010 due to negative Indian Ocean Dipole

6. Famine in East Africa today:New research on the role of the expanding Indian Ocean Warm Pool (long rains)

7. Global Framework for Climate Services

8. GOOS: global in situ elements built for climateclimate GOOS is ocean component of GCOSmany in situ networks implemented by JCOMM These observations have built a network we call GOOS, the Global Ocean Observing System. It has increased in capacity in the past decade, but is not fully complete, and it has been difficult to convince nations to invest further.These observations have built a network we call GOOS, the Global Ocean Observing System. It has increased in capacity in the past decade, but is not fully complete, and it has been difficult to convince nations to invest further.

9. Adequacy of satellite ocean ECVs defined by GOOS/GCOS, coordinated by CEOS, CGMS

10. Some critical pieces have fragile funding: sustainability is an ongoing concern

11. A Framework for Ocean Observing IOC Intergovernmental Oceanographic Commission of UNESCO GEO Group on Earth Observations CEOS Committee on Earth Observation Satellites POGO Partnership for Observation of the Global Oceans SCOR Scientific Committee on Oceanic Research SCAR Scientific Committee on Antarctic Research GCOS Global Climate Observing System GOOS Global Ocean Observing System JCOMM Joint WMO-IOC Technical Commission for Oceanography and Marine Meteorology PICES North Pacific Marine Science Organization ICES International Council for the Exploration of the Sea CoML Census of Marine Life IGBP International Geosphere-Biosphere Programme WCRP World Climate Research Programme

12. Moving from introduction to the core ideas behind the framework team’s work: We wanted to take a complex system: the ocean observing system built up of research and some operational effort, in situ and satellite observing networks measuring different variables, new technological developments, data streams, and products — and apply systems thinking. This starts with a simple model of the system, which has an input in the form of requirements, a process in the form of observing networks, and an output in data and products that then feeds a scientific or societal benefit, the source of the requirements.Moving from introduction to the core ideas behind the framework team’s work: We wanted to take a complex system: the ocean observing system built up of research and some operational effort, in situ and satellite observing networks measuring different variables, new technological developments, data streams, and products — and apply systems thinking. This starts with a simple model of the system, which has an input in the form of requirements, a process in the form of observing networks, and an output in data and products that then feeds a scientific or societal benefit, the source of the requirements.

13. This model of the framework is derived from where we are now. We have a large part of our observing system (in purple, made up of different observing units/networks) that is built and driven by our climate observing requirements (in orange). These requirements are currently expressed in GCOS plans as requirements on different Essential Climate Variables which we’ve generalized in the framework as Essential Ocean Variables. The GCOS implementation plan is written as a report to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change which has adopted it, and through this process we have buy-in from Parties (nations) from across the world for this observing system. The requirements are looked after by the OOPC which is also a part of the GOOS structure. Different observing units or networks measure different Essential Ocean Variables and contribute to different data streams and products (in green). Argo is an important one here. These products then help inform climate research and societal decisions about climate – and these drivers are what help originally set and refine requirements (arrows) in an important feedback loop to keep the observing system ‘fit for purpose’. The current model helped feed our vision for moving forward from 2010.This model of the framework is derived from where we are now. We have a large part of our observing system (in purple, made up of different observing units/networks) that is built and driven by our climate observing requirements (in orange). These requirements are currently expressed in GCOS plans as requirements on different Essential Climate Variables which we’ve generalized in the framework as Essential Ocean Variables. The GCOS implementation plan is written as a report to the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change which has adopted it, and through this process we have buy-in from Parties (nations) from across the world for this observing system. The requirements are looked after by the OOPC which is also a part of the GOOS structure. Different observing units or networks measure different Essential Ocean Variables and contribute to different data streams and products (in green). Argo is an important one here. These products then help inform climate research and societal decisions about climate – and these drivers are what help originally set and refine requirements (arrows) in an important feedback loop to keep the observing system ‘fit for purpose’. The current model helped feed our vision for moving forward from 2010.

14. The reality is that there are many more societal drivers than climate and weather for ocean observations. And we should try to engage them to build additional advocates for the observing system, and to help drive an integration across disciplines and especially the data products that will help build a system that is more than a sum of its individual parts.The reality is that there are many more societal drivers than climate and weather for ocean observations. And we should try to engage them to build additional advocates for the observing system, and to help drive an integration across disciplines and especially the data products that will help build a system that is more than a sum of its individual parts.

15. We should try to engage these different scientific questions and societal benefits that require sustained ocean observations, including biodiversity, regional seas and regional fisheries management organizations, global fisheries agreements, global marine assessments, and the development of ecosystem-based approaches to management of the ocean environment. We could follow the model that has successfully been implemented by climate – developing implementation plans from an expert group of scientists like the OOPC, which would be put forward to different international conventions and agreements, to get wider buy-in for sustained ocean observations from the international community and nations. That would expand the number of Essential Ocean Variables into the chemical, biological and ecosystems realm (gray box to right) and expand the number of data products. We will then have impact on more issues (for both science and for society). This is the 60,000 foot view of the Framework, a high-level picture that looks at driving the observing system with societal issues, developing requirements on what to measure, organizing and coordinating autonomous observing networks, and delivering data that has impacts on these societal issues – helping to drive understanding and good decisions. There are two arrows in the feedback loop: the outer loop at the highest level with feedback from decision-makers about how information from the ocean has impacted their decision, which can then modify the questions asked of the observing system; and an inner loop that allows ocean observers to look at the fitness for purpose of data products and make assessments there. In some cases the science is ahead of the conventions in its needs for sustained ocean data, but having these conventions there at the top level is an important reminder that we should be developing sustained observations to feed societal benefit. Some of these conventions are regional, and we expressly did not make a distinction between coastal and open ocean observations.We should try to engage these different scientific questions and societal benefits that require sustained ocean observations, including biodiversity, regional seas and regional fisheries management organizations, global fisheries agreements, global marine assessments, and the development of ecosystem-based approaches to management of the ocean environment. We could follow the model that has successfully been implemented by climate – developing implementation plans from an expert group of scientists like the OOPC, which would be put forward to different international conventions and agreements, to get wider buy-in for sustained ocean observations from the international community and nations. That would expand the number of Essential Ocean Variables into the chemical, biological and ecosystems realm (gray box to right) and expand the number of data products. We will then have impact on more issues (for both science and for society). This is the 60,000 foot view of the Framework, a high-level picture that looks at driving the observing system with societal issues, developing requirements on what to measure, organizing and coordinating autonomous observing networks, and delivering data that has impacts on these societal issues – helping to drive understanding and good decisions. There are two arrows in the feedback loop: the outer loop at the highest level with feedback from decision-makers about how information from the ocean has impacted their decision, which can then modify the questions asked of the observing system; and an inner loop that allows ocean observers to look at the fitness for purpose of data products and make assessments there. In some cases the science is ahead of the conventions in its needs for sustained ocean data, but having these conventions there at the top level is an important reminder that we should be developing sustained observations to feed societal benefit. Some of these conventions are regional, and we expressly did not make a distinction between coastal and open ocean observations.

16. The readiness levels are in fact an idea that has been with us on the physical side for a couple of decades, the precursor of OOPC (OODSP) spent a lot of time examining the feasibility and impact of different observing systems, to see if they were ready for global sustained observations. We believe that many biogeochemical and biological variables also need global sustained observations, but perhaps the technologies and techniques are not yet ready for instant application globally. We need to increase the readiness of these observing networks so they drive towards being capable of global sustained observations delivering an important data product that has impact on science or society. If there is an ambition to run a regional pilot to build a future global system – this type of pull helps engage the research community, and they want to be engaged. For Argo, new sensors should be and are being trialed in pilot projects, to improve their readiness for deployment on more of the array.The readiness levels are in fact an idea that has been with us on the physical side for a couple of decades, the precursor of OOPC (OODSP) spent a lot of time examining the feasibility and impact of different observing systems, to see if they were ready for global sustained observations. We believe that many biogeochemical and biological variables also need global sustained observations, but perhaps the technologies and techniques are not yet ready for instant application globally. We need to increase the readiness of these observing networks so they drive towards being capable of global sustained observations delivering an important data product that has impact on science or society. If there is an ambition to run a regional pilot to build a future global system – this type of pull helps engage the research community, and they want to be engaged. For Argo, new sensors should be and are being trialed in pilot projects, to improve their readiness for deployment on more of the array.

17. Reform of GOOS governance 26th Session of the IOC Assembly (22 June - 5 July 2011, Paris) ‘streamlined and strengthened’ GOOS governance GOOS as a holistic system encompassing global, regional and coastal observations and products aligned with a Framework for Ocean Observing oriented to an essential ocean variable approach GOOS to set requirements based on the needs global conventions and agreements in climate, natural hazards, biodiversity, safety of life at sea, marine assessment, and regional conventions reinforce global participation through capacity development new (interim) GOOS Steering Committee 5 Member State appointed expert members, up to 10 other expert members, representatives of relevant implementing and coordinating bodies, sponsors

18. GOOS in a GFCS: outlook GOOS is already designed to the set of requirements for climate monitoring, research, and forecasting, expressed in GCOS documents GOOS will animate Framework for Ocean Observing processes in setting requirements, coordinating observations (through JCOMM and other mechanisms), and coordinating data systems (also through JCOMM, IODE, and in cooperation with WIS) JCOMM Services also examining their contribution to GFCS Expand the set of requirements we are feeding - Climate Services will be potentially provide a new set of requirements, and hopefully bring new sustained support to ocean observations — we need to agree how these requirements are expressed to GOOS

19. All these have given us a better vision and better appreciation for the beautiful planet we live on – planet ocean, planet Earth.All these have given us a better vision and better appreciation for the beautiful planet we live on – planet ocean, planet Earth.

20. Uncertainty: spread in model precipitation projectionsneed for improved monitoring, research, downscaling Look at difference in robustness for Kenya and EthiopiaLook at difference in robustness for Kenya and Ethiopia

21. Climate change in coastal systems Climate change will increase vulnerability to extreme events increase coastal erosion add to human pressures on the coast conflict with current paths of human development Adaptation costs are less than costs of inaction

22. Sea level rise: global mean

23. Sea level rise: observed regional rise

24. Sea level rise and adaptation: vulnerability