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COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project

COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project. C. Marsigli, A. Montani and T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy. COSMO-SREPS. COSMO-LEPS (10 km) mainly designed for the 2-5 days range The spread is coming only from EPS initial and boundary conditions (large scale uncertainties)

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COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project

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  1. COSMO-SREPS COSMO Priority Project C. Marsigli, A. Montani and T. Paccagnella ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy

  2. COSMO-SREPS • COSMO-LEPS (10 km) mainly designed for the 2-5 days range • The spread is coming only from EPS initial and boundary conditions (large scale uncertainties) • COSMO-SREPS (10 km) has been thought as a limited-area ensemble system for the short-range: • add more spread in the short-range => initial and boundary condition from a Multi-Model Multi-Analysis ensemble (INM SREPS) • take into account also small scale uncertainty => limited-area model (LM) errors

  3. Link with data assimilation • 1D-Var DA of satellite data to provide retrieval to be nudged within 7km LM (currently carried on by COSMO): investigate the possibility of using COSMO-SREPS to estimate a flow-dependent B matrix • SIR project: COSMO-SREPS will provide boundary conditions for the LM-K ensemble data assimilation runs

  4. COSMO-SREPS larger scale errors driving model errors analysis error at the global model scale LAM ensemble limited-area model error: schemes, parameters, surface forcings smaller scale errors • i.c. and b.c. perturbations -> INM multi-model multi-analysis • model perturbations -> Lokal Model perturbations

  5. ic and bc: multi-model approach • a MUlti-Model MUlti-Boundaries ensemble is operational at INM (Spain): 5 different limited-area models (HIRLAM, HRM, MM5, UM, LM) are nested on 4 different global models (IFS, GME, AVN, UM) => 20 members ensemble (25 km horizontal resolution) IFS LM 25km GME LM 25km AVN LM 25 km UM LM 25 km Courtesy of INM

  6. Good example of inter-consortia collaboration: • Formal agreement between COSMO and INM: • LM included into INM SREPS => more members • INM provides the LM-on-SREPS forecasts to COSMO • SREPS output made available by INM from May 2006: 3-hourly initial and boundary conditions for COSMO-SREPS are provided daily at ECMWF on ECFS (4 LM runs at 25 km on an Euro-Atlantic area, nested on 4 different global models interpolated with int2lm at 10 km over the COSMO-LEPS area)

  7. Perturbation of model trajectories • Schemes (physics and numerics): Some schemes have been selectedto be perturbed: Tiedtke, Tiedtke with cape closure, Kain-Fritsch, 2-time-level, Runge-Kutta • Parameters: • a first selection of the parameters has been done • new tuneable parameters will be tested(provided by the COSMO physics people + new namelist) • Surface forcings: possible cooperation with Luca Bonaventura to test a technique for the perturbation of surface parameters + exploration of methodologies to perturb initial conditions at high resolution

  8. Parameter list

  9. IFS – ECMWF global LM at 25 km on IFS COSMO-SREPS (Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System) short range (up to 3 days) GME – DWD global P1: conv. scheme (KF) P2: turb. parameter 1 P3: time filter P4: turb. parameter 2 LM at 25 km on GME by INM Spain UM – UKMO global LM at 25 km on UM 16 LM runs at 10 km AVN – NCEP global LM at 25 km on NCEP

  10. 13 15 UTC

  11. 47N 44N 6W 9W

  12. 13 18 UTC

  13. 47N 45N 7W 10W

  14. 14 00 UTC

  15. 46.5N 45N 10.5W 13W

  16. 14 06 UTC

  17. 100 90 60 30 10 COSMO-LEPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 0-6 6-12 12-18 h 13 May 12-18 UTC > 10mm/6h COSMO-SREPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 12-18 18-24 24-30 h > 10mm/6h

  18. COSMO-SREPSfc. range 24-30 ecmwf gme avn ukmo 14 May 0-6 UTC

  19. ensemble spread 12/05 12UTC 13/05 00UTC 13/05 12UTC

  20. member behaviour (“father”)

  21. intra-group distance

  22. IFS – ECMWF global LM at 25 km on IFS 1-month test:autumn 2006 GME – DWD global P1: control (ope) P2: conv. scheme (KF) P3: turb. parameter 1 P4: turb. parameter 2 LM at 25 km on GME by INM Spain UM – UKMO global 16 LM runs at 10 km LM at 25 km on UM AVN – NCEP global LM at 25 km on NCEP

  23. 1-month test: model pert. with the same father P1: control (ope) P2: conv. scheme (KF) P3: turb. parameter 1 P4: turb. parameter 2 P5: … IFS – ECMWF global LM at 25 km on IFS by INM Spain 10 LM runs at 10 km

  24. Future plans • run of COSMO-SREPS with model perturbations for 1 month of Autumn 2006: • statistical analysis of the system • provide b.c. for EELMK (DWD) tests • comparison with COSMO-LEPS and PEPS • test a flow-dependent B-matrix for 1D-Var of satellite data • MAP D-PHASE testing period (summer-autumn 2007): • perturbations selected on the basis of the 1-month test • verification -> availability of observations • comparison with the other available mesoscale ensemble systems

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