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COSMO-SREPS Priority Project

COSMO-SREPS Priority Project. C. Marsigli ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy. COSMO-SREPS. aim: to develop a limited-area ensemble system for the short-range considering also small scale uncertainty. boundary conditions. initial conditions. LAM ensemble. model (LM): schemes, parameters,

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COSMO-SREPS Priority Project

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  1. COSMO-SREPS Priority Project C. Marsigli ARPA-SIM, Bologna, Italy

  2. COSMO-SREPS • aim: to develop a limited-area ensemble system for the short-range considering also small scale uncertainty boundary conditions initial conditions LAM ensemble model (LM): schemes, parameters, surface forcings • i.c. and b.c. perturbations -> INM multi-model • LM perturbations

  3. people involved in the PP • Involved COSMO people: • Marsigli, Montani, Paccagnella (ARPA-SIM) • + collaborations: • S. Theis (DWD) – discussion on the methodologies and sharing of perturbation techniques • U. Schaettler (DWD) – new version of LM developed to move from the code to a namelist a number of tuneable parameters • WG2 and WG3 people has provided a parameter list • Non-COSMO: • INM (Spain): J. Garcia-Moya, J. Simarro, …

  4. Task Suggested scientists (optional) % FTE per year start milestones date 0: Preliminary actions for the system set-up people external to the project 0 September 2005 - LM code to LM by December 2005 - INM initial and boundary conditions at ECMWF by June 2006 June 2006 1:Definition of the methodologies to perturb modeltrajectories external collaboration of S. Theis 30% January 2006 - model parameters to be perturbed by December 2006 December 2006 2:Definition of the methodologies to perturb initial condition  40%  October 2006  - ETKF implemented by the end of 2007 June 2008 3:System set-up external collaborations of INM and U. Schaettler  5%  May 2006 - data transfer by INM for the first tests - 1-month test set-up by October 2006 - set-up of e-suite in 2007 June 2007 4: Test on case studies 50% June 2006 - analysis of the impact of the different perturbations December 2006 5:Test on a regular basis  40%  January 2007 December 2007 6:Verification  20%  January 2007 October 2008

  5. ic and bc: multi-model approach • a MUlti-Model MUlti-Boundaries ensemble is operational at INM (Spain): 4 different limited-area models (HIRLAM, HRM, MM5, UM) are nested on 5 different global models (IFS, GME, AVN, UM, LM) => 20 members ensemble (25 km horizontal resolution) • LM has been added in May 2006 IFS LM 25km GME LM 25km AVN LM 25 km UM LM 25 km Courtesy of INM

  6. IFS – ECMWF global LM at 25 km on IFS COSMO-SREPS (Short-Range Ensemble Prediction System) short range (up to 3 days) GME – DWD global P1: conv. scheme (KF) P2: turb. parameter 1 P3: time filter P4: turb. parameter 2 LM at 25 km on GME by INM Spain UM – UKMO global LM at 25 km on UM 16 LM runs at 10 km AVN – NCEP global LM at 25 km on NCEP

  7. Parameter list

  8. 13 15 UTC

  9. 47N 44N 6W 9W

  10. 13 18 UTC

  11. 47N 45N 7W 10W

  12. 14 00 UTC

  13. 46.5N 45N 10.5W 13W

  14. 14 06 UTC

  15. 100 90 60 30 10 COSMO-LEPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 0-6 6-12 12-18 h 13 May 12-18 UTC > 10mm/6h COSMO-SREPS PROB. MAPS fc. range 12-18 18-24 24-30 h > 10mm/6h

  16. COSMO-SREPSfc. range 24-30 ecmwf gme avn ukmo 14 May 0-6 UTC

  17. ensemble spread 12/05 12UTC 13/05 00UTC 13/05 12UTC

  18. member behaviour (“father”)

  19. intra-group distance

  20. Task 0. Preliminary actions for the system set-up • Formal agreement between COSMO and INM: • use of LM by INM: support has been given to INM -> done • provision of the forecasts to COSMO: SREPS output available • From May 2006 3-hourly initial and boundary conditions for COSMO-SREPS are provided daily at ECMWF on ECFS: 4 LM runs at 25 km on an Euro-Atlantic area, nested on 4 different global models (IFS,GME,AVN,UKMO) interpolated with int2lm at 10 km over the COSMO-LEPS area

  21. Task 1. Definition of the methodologies to perturb model trajectories • Schemes (physics and numerics): Some schemes have been selected to be perturbed: Tiedtke, Tiedtke with cape closure, Kain-Fritsch, 2-time-level, Runge-Kutta • Parameters: • a first selection of the parameters has been done (analysis of few case studies) • the new tuneable parameters will be tested (provided by external collaborations of WG3 people + Susanne Theis) • Surface forcings: LM surface fields -> interest of Luca Bonaventura to test a technique for the perturbation of surface parameters -> to be developed Task 2.Definition of the methodologies to perturb initial conditions: it will start in October with a visit to Bologna of Neill Bowler from UKMO.

  22. Task 3. System set-up: • Data transfer between INM and ECMWF: done • Adaptation of source code to give the possibility to use tuneable or random parameters: the new model version model will include a new namelist file in which many physical parameters can be set (Uli Schaettler, WG6) -> done • Extracting LM frames and nesting of LM on LM frames (WG6):to be discussed • Discussion on computer resources:during 2006 SP SPITLAEF is being used. A new Special Project submitted to ECMWF for the developing phase for 2007 (SPITFEAR). Collection of COSMO units to be discussed. • Establish the link SIR-COSMO SREPS:this meeting • Possibility to have a COSMO originating centre in the GRIB coding:to be discussed (possible link with TIGGE)

  23. Task 4. Test on case studies • Test of SREPS prototype on real-time case studies and comparison with COSMO-LEPS and “model perturbed COSMO-LEPS”: • run of COSMO-SREPS for 1 case study to test that the chain from INM to COSMO-SREPS is working -> done • run of COSMO-SREPS with model perturbations only for 1 month of Autumn 2006: • statistical analysis of the system • provide b.c. for EELMK tests • comparison with COSMO-LEPS and PEPS

  24. Plans for 2006-2007 • Task 5. Test on a regular basis • Task 5.1 selection of the methodology to generate the perturbations : • parameters: based on the analysis of the results of the 1-month test period • development of the i.c. perturbations technique • Task 5.2 selection of the testing period: • possible link with MAP D-PHASE (summer-autumn 2007) • availability of observations (-> WG5) • Task 5.3 investigation on computer resources: • COSMO units available? • Task 5.4 INM data availability

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