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Measuring Impact of a Cause

This article explores the concept of measuring the impact of a cause through probability theory. It defines key terms such as ratio, prevalence, and universe of possibilities, emphasizing the daily probability of exercise. By applying axioms of probability, such as the sum of probabilities equaling one and the addition of probabilities for exclusive events, it demonstrates how to calculate the probability of exercise occurrences. Utilizing Venn diagrams and case studies from diary data, it presents practical approaches to assessing the impact of exercise habits, reinforcing the importance of conditional probability in outcome measurement.

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Measuring Impact of a Cause

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  1. Measuring Impact of a Cause Farrokh Alemi Ph.D.

  2. Definition • Ratio • Prevalence of event • Universe of possibilities

  3. Daily Probability of Exercise

  4. Daily Probability of Exercise

  5. Daily Probability of Exercise

  6. Probability Scale

  7. Axioms of Probability • Is a positive number between 0 and 1 • The sum of the probabilities is 1 • Probability of two exclusive events is sum of the probability of each

  8. Venn Diagram

  9. Venn Diagram

  10. Probability of Exercise • Days of exercise divided by total days • Success divided by planned

  11. Combination of Events

  12. Combination of Events + -

  13. Probability of both events occurring together

  14. Probability of exercise in evening or morning A=morning exercise B=evening exercise + -

  15. Impact of a Cause • P(Effect|Cause)

  16. Impact of a Cause • P(Effect | Cause) • P(B | A)

  17. Impact of a Cause • P(Effect | Cause) • P(B | A)

  18. Impact of a Cause

  19. Impact of a Cause

  20. Numerical Example

  21. Numerical Example

  22. Numerical Example

  23. Calculation from Diary data

  24. Calculation from Diary data

  25. Calculation from Diary data 9 days

  26. Calculation from Diary data 9 days 5 days

  27. Calculation from Diary data 9 days 5 days

  28. Take Home Lesson Conditional Probability Measured Impact of a Cause

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