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Constructing influence diagrams

Constructing influence diagrams. Decision-maker: EPA Decision: Permit use of potentially carcinogenic chemical? Alternative courses of action Permit Restrict Ban Uncertainty: hazards Imperfect information: test and survey. Consequences. Value. Decision. Usage decision. Economic

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Constructing influence diagrams

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  1. Constructing influence diagrams • Decision-maker: EPA • Decision: Permit use of potentially carcinogenic chemical? Alternative courses of action • Permit • Restrict • Ban • Uncertainty: hazards • Imperfect information: test and survey

  2. Consequences Value Decision Usage decision Economic value Net value Cancer cost

  3. Value Uncertain events Decision Consequences Usage decision Economic value Exposure rate Net value Cancer cost Cancer risk Carcinogenic potential

  4. Imperfect information Uncertain events Consequences Decision Value Test Usage decision Survey Economic value Exposure rate Net value Cancer cost Cancer risk Carcinogenic potential

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