NWS Digital Aviation Services

1. NWS Digital Aviation Services Joe DelliCarpini Science and Operations Officer WFO Boston, MA

2. Foundation of DSS Where We Are Headed (2013-2025) Analyze Study Guidance Interact with Guidance Populate Forecaster Debut of IFPS/GFE (Early 2000s) Analyze Study Guidance Draw AFOS Era (1990s) Analyze Study Guidance Type 4 D Digital Forecast Grid Derived Products Probabilistic Forecasts Text “Package” Digital Grid Derived Products (AFM) Service Text “Package” (ZFP) Support Personal Interaction Personal Interaction Some Expanded/Detailed Products Personal Interaction More Expanded/detailed Products Detailed Data for Intelligent Software Capability

3. Digital Aviation Services • Requirement for FAA NextGen • Initial integration of weather info: 2013-2018 • Ceiling, Visibility, Icing, Turbulence • AWC/CWSU/WFO roles are being defined • WFOs can provide meaningful input • Integrate Aviation forecasting into GFE • Public, Marine, Fire Weather programs already there! • Increases efficiency of forecast operations • Generate TAFs quickly and maintain consistency • Capability for additional TAF sites

4. Digital Aviation Services There is a demand for this information!

5. NWS Digital Aviation Services Today Many have shown interest! Participating WFOs On The Way

6. WFO Boston Aviation Forecasts EEN MHT ASH AFN LWM ORE FIT BVY BED BOS ORH GHG CEF OWD PVC BAF SFZ BDL TAN PYM IJD PVD HFD FMH CQX HYA OQU EWB UUU WST MVY TAF Sites (10) Shadow TAF Sites (23) ACK BID

7. Hourly Graphical Forecasts Not just for aviation use!

8. Shadow TAFs • Internal forecasts for airports not served by NWS TAFs • Run in the background every 6 hours • 0545, 1145, 1845, 2345 UTC • No forecaster “intervention” • Sent to NWS Verification Branch for processing • Gives a sense of “gridded” verification • Meets or exceeds GPRA IFR Metric

9. Shadow TAF Applications Google Map interface for Terminal Information Board

10. Shadow TAF Applications “Point and Click” capability for Ceiling and Visibility forecasts

11. TAF Applications Terminal Information Board

12. Internal Consistency Wind grids produce output for TAF and TDA

13. Consistency and Efficiency TDAs can be derived from grids

14. Role of TAFs • Regulatory Forecast Product • Part of Digital Aviation Services

15. Objective • Provide hourly graphical forecasts of Ceiling and Visibility which represent prevailing conditions for the next 30 hours • Forecast flight categories, not observations! • Keep the process manageable for the forecasters • Support a national digital database • Allow TAFs to “drop out” of the database with little or no post-editing

16. Digital Aviation Services • Populate grids out to 36 hours for: 00z, 06z, 12z, and 18z TAFs • T, Td, Wind, Sky, Wx, Ceiling, Vsby, LLWS • GFE formatter produces first cut of TAFs • Forecasters review/transmit TAFs through AvnFPS • Grids updated every 3 hours / issue AMDs • Meets 3-hour TAF requirements • Other AMDs: Issued through AvnFPS • Need for timely Ceiling/Visibility analysis grid

17. Assessment • Staff Feedback: Unanimously Positive • No one wants to go back to writing TAFs! • Short Term forecaster no longer removed from GFE to compose TAFs in AvnFPS • Product consistency no longer a problem • Workload “shift” – no notable increase • “Keep it simple” but have alternate methods available to help in a pinch. • Tools available which use raw model data if MOS does not look reasonable (diurnal cumulus, stratus in particular) • LLWS procedure calculates shear and ensures consistency from shift to shift – no more guessing from BUFKIT!

18. Assessment • Operations are more efficient • “Aviation forecaster” no longer needed on shift • Grids/TAFs handled by Short Term forecaster • Most short term grids are completed at TAF time • Shift in forecasting from point-based to areal-based • Immediate acceptance by staff • Much easier to compose TAFs • 00z/12z: Usually update first 6-12 hours only • Easier to send multiple AMDs for 3-hour TAFs • No initial drop in verification scores • All sites improved!

19. Challenges • Grids to TAFs • “TAFs are too long!” (complex weather) • Staff training held on “nuts and bolts” of GFE formatter • Knowledge of Cat A and B thresholds / wind impacts • Focus on first 12 hours...trends beyond that • Forecaster preference is to “post edit” and remove any extra FM groups • Assumes some initial risk • Initial drop in scores possible, but they will recover • Detailed hourly grids are a must • Staff training/practice is crucial!

20. But Consider the Benefits • TAF information available for entire CWA • Pilots no longer have to “estimate” based upon nearby TAFs • Coastal waters/Great Lakes (Search & Rescue) • Capability to easily add more TAF sites • Meet FAA requests (we have 5 more on our list!) • More detailed information for AWC/CWSUs • Area Forecasts, Stand-Up Briefings, etc.

21. Next Steps • Quarterly WFO Conference Calls • What’s working/not working • GFE formatter issues • National Digital Forecast Services Team • Develop roadmap for AWC, CWSUs, WFOs • Add more WFOs to the mix! • GSD involvement • Ceiling/Visibility analysis grids and new data sets

22. Is Your WFO Interested? • Decide, as an office, if this is something you want to pursue • Come up with an implementation plan which includes staff input/feedback • LOT agreement • Customer feedback (GA, local FAA, Airlines) • If so, we can help! • GFE tools and procedures • Staff training • More detailed Go-To-Meeting presentation • Practice before going “live”

23. NWS Digital Aviation Services Joseph.Dellicarpini@noaa.gov 508.823.1983