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NWS Aviation Services Branch Aviation Services Virtual Workshop April 16, 2013

Lead Time Aviation Verification Onset and Cessation of Ceiling and Visibility Flight Category Conditions (IFR, MVFR, VFR) at FAA Core Airports. NWS Aviation Services Branch Aviation Services Virtual Workshop April 16, 2013. Lead Time Accuracy Requirements.

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NWS Aviation Services Branch Aviation Services Virtual Workshop April 16, 2013

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  1. Lead Time Aviation VerificationOnset and Cessation of Ceiling and Visibility Flight Category Conditions (IFR, MVFR, VFR) at FAA Core Airports NWS Aviation Services Branch Aviation Services Virtual Workshop April 16, 2013

  2. Lead Time Accuracy Requirements • Identified by Joint FAA/NWS Traffic Flow Management (TFM) Weather Requirements Working Group (TRWG) • Performance-Based Weather Information Requirements • Linked to Decisions for Traffic Management Initiatives • Accuracy needed at decision points prior to onset and cessation • New Verification Method, Different than Traditional Method • Probability of Detection (POD) and False Alarm Ratio (FAR) onlyat time of onset and cessation, not throughout event duration • Verification Metrics to Baseline Current Support against New Performance-Based Requirements • NWSH Performance Branch developed modified version of Stats on Demand

  3. Lead Time Accuracy Requirements Accuracy Criteria Needed for Time of Onset and Cessation of IFR, MVFR, VFR Conditions

  4. Lead Time to Cig/Vis Event Example MVFR Forecast Onset 0500Z VFR Forecast Cessation 0500Z MVFR Onset 0536Z VFR Cessation 0536Z

  5. TAF Lead Time - IFR Onset POD 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of IFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Probability of Detection Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  6. TAF Lead Time – IFR Onset FAR 2-4 Hour Projection to Onset of IFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports False Alarm Ratio Number of Events/Forecasts 25% 2012 2013

  7. TAF Lead Time - IFR Onset Timing Error Mean Absolute Timing Error: 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of IFR Conditions Timing Error (minutes) Number of Events/Forecasts 30 min 2012 2013

  8. TAF Lead Time - IFR Cessation POD 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of IFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Probability of Detection Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  9. TAF Lead Time - IFR Cessation FAR 2-4 Hour Projection to Cessation of IFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports False Alarm Ratio Number of Events/Forecasts 25% 2012 2013

  10. TAF Lead Time - IFR Cessation Timing Error Mean Absolute Timing Error: 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of IFR Conditions 30 min Timing Error (minutes) Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  11. TAF Lead Time - MVFR Onset POD 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of MVFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Probability of Detection Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  12. TAF Lead Time - MVFR Onset FAR 2-4 Hour Projection to Onset of MVFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports False Alarm Ratio Number of Events/Forecasts 25% 2012 2013

  13. TAF Lead Time - MVFR Onset Timing Error 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of MVFR Conditions at Core Airports 30 min Timing Error (minutes) Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  14. TAF Lead Time - MVFR Cessation POD 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of MVFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Probability of Detection Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  15. TAF Lead Time - MVFR Cessation FAR 2-4 Hour Projection to Cessation of MVFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports False Alarm Ratio Number of Events/Forecasts 25% 2012 2013

  16. TAF Lead Time - MVFR Cessation Timing Error Mean Absolute Timing Error: 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of MVFR Conditions 30 min Timing Error (minutes) Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  17. TAF Lead Time - VFR Onset POD 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of VFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Probability of Detection Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  18. TAF Lead Time - VFR Onset FAR 2-4 Hour Projection to Onset of VFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports False Alarm Ratio Number of Events/Forecasts 25% 2012 2013

  19. TAF Lead Time - VFR Onset Timing Error 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Onset of VFR Conditions at Core Airports 30 min Timing Error (minutes) Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  20. TAF Lead Time - VFR Cessation POD 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of VFR Conditions at Core Airports 75% Probability of Detection Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  21. TAF Lead Time - VFR Cessation FAR 2-4 Hour Projection to Cessation of VFR Conditions at the Core 30 Airports False Alarm Ratio Number of Events/Forecasts 25% 2012 2013

  22. TAF Lead Time - VFR Cessation Timing Error Mean Absolute Timing Error: 2-4 Hour Lead Time to Cessation of VFR Conditions 30 min Timing Error (minutes) Number of Events/Forecasts 2012 2013

  23. Summary • Lead Time Accuracy Requirements • Decision process needs timing of Onset/Cessation of events impacting TFM on scale of tens of minutes • New Verification Method, Different than Traditional Method • Preliminary Flight Category verification results show significant gap between accuracy baseline and decision process needs • TAF hourly time scale too coarse to meet need of TFM decisions • Model guidance time scale likely to lead to similar results • Next Steps for Lead Time Assessment Tool • Wind Direction Changes, Thunderstorms, Model Guidance • Accessible on Performance Management Website • Training for Lead Time Verification Method and Results Interpretation

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