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Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Embankment and Levee Failures: Insights from URS Corporation Meeting

This document outlines the key points from the Delta Storage Program Stakeholders Committee meeting held by URS Corporation on January 22, 2003, focusing on the risk analysis of embankments and levees. It discusses how risks can be quantified through the equation Risk = (Pload)(Presponse)(consequences). Failure modes such as static loads, seepage, flooding, and earthquakes are explored, alongside the assessment of potential consequences impacting life and economic losses. Various breach scenarios and their probabilities are detailed to inform future reservoir embankment designs.

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Comprehensive Risk Analysis of Embankment and Levee Failures: Insights from URS Corporation Meeting

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  1. IN-DELTA STORAGE PROGRAMSTAKEHOLDERS COMMITTEE MEETING URS Corporation January 22, 2003

  2. Risk Analysis • Based on the following equation: Risk = (Pload)(Presponse)(consequences) • Quantifies the risks of an embankment/ levee • How could failure occur? • How likely is it? • What would happen if it did?

  3. Failure Modes • Static Loads • Seepage/piping, slope stability, foundation stability, operational problems • Floods • Overtopping, increased chance of static failure • Earthquakes • Foundation liquefaction, deformation, cracking, increased chance of static failure

  4. Estimate Consequences • Potential loss of life • Based primarily on affected downstream population, available warning time, and estimated severity of the flood wave • Economic • Includes downstream damages from failure, loss of infrastructure, lost project benefits, embankment replacement costs, etc.

  5. Probabilities of Breach Scenarios • Loading event • Flooding • Seismic • Operational • Load level • Return period

  6. Probabilities of Breach Scenarios (cont’d) • Operational scenario • Reservoir level • Tide level • Breach scenario • Inward • Outward • Probability of breach scenario • Product of above events and scenarios

  7. Consequences & Probabilities of Breaching • Consequences of Breach (cost) • Inward Breach • Outward Breach • Probability of flooding of neighboring islands due to outward breach • Consequences of flooding of neighboring islands • Risk analysis will be used to recommend reservoir embankment design

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