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Economic Outlook: Prospects for Growth Amidst Challenges (April 2013)

In this April 2013 report by James Marple, Senior Economist at TD Economics, a nuanced picture of the U.S. economy emerges. While there are positive signs such as housing market recovery, improved consumer spending, and job creation, challenges like fiscal drag from tax hikes and global economic uncertainties loom large. The report emphasizes that despite these headwinds, accelerating economic growth is anticipated in the upcoming years, particularly as private deleveraging gives way to public investment. Real GDP growth is projected at about 2% in 2013 and 3% in 2014, with the Federal Reserve maintaining a supportive monetary policy.

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Economic Outlook: Prospects for Growth Amidst Challenges (April 2013)

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  1. The Economic Outlook James Marple, Senior Economist TD Economics April 12, 2013

  2. This time is different

  3. What’s in store for the economy? • Lots of upside potential: • Housing • Consumer spending • Investment & job creation • Weighing on growth: • Fiscal drag – tax hikes, sequestration… • Global prospects & risks

  4. Global slowdown a near-term headwind

  5. Europe’s recession to last through first half of this year

  6. U.S. exporting more to the Americas, less to Europe

  7. Faster economic growth is on the horizon…

  8. …And in New England…

  9. Private “deleveraging” giving way to public

  10. Federal deficits are getting smaller…

  11. …At least for now…

  12. Housing headwind has become a tailwind

  13. Construction to catch up to household growth

  14. Foreclosure inventories gradually improving across New England

  15. Market is clearing and house prices are growing

  16. Home prices rising throughoutNew England

  17. Auto sales still have room to grow

  18. Credit conditions are improving

  19. Uncertainty keeping firms on sidelines

  20. Layoffs down, but need more hiring

  21. America still has a jobs deficit

  22. Fed will continue to prime the pumps

  23. Low interest rates likely here for a while

  24. The bottom line • Housing improvement a fillip to economic growth • Tax hikes & spending cuts are a drag • Global growth gradually improving, but risks remain • Fed to remain stimulative • Real GDP growth of ~2.0% in 2013, ~3.0% in 2014

  25. TD Economics www.td.com/economics This reportis provided by TD Economicsfor customers of TD Bank Group. It is for information purposes only and may not be appropriate for other purposes. The report does not provide material information about the business and affairs of TD Bank Group and the members of TD Economics are not spokespersons for TD Bank Group with respect to its business and affairs. The information contained in this report has been drawn from sources believed to be reliable, but is not guaranteed to be accurate or complete. The report contains economic analysis and views, including about future economic and financial markets performance. These are based on certain assumptions and other factors, and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties. The actual outcome may be materially different. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its affiliates and related entities that comprise TD Bank Group are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information, analysis or views contained in this report, or for any loss or damage suffered.

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