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The Lifetime of Intelligence NASA Ames, 30 June 2007

The Lifetime of Intelligence NASA Ames, 30 June 2007. William H. Calvin University of Washington Seattle, Washington USA. Nuclear Winter Scenario. Became clear that we could terminate civilization via worldwide changes in climate.

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The Lifetime of Intelligence NASA Ames, 30 June 2007

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  1. The Lifetime of IntelligenceNASA Ames, 30 June 2007 William H. Calvin University of Washington Seattle, Washington USA

  2. Nuclear Winter Scenario • Became clear that we could terminate civilization via worldwide changes in climate. • Now it looks as if there is a low-tech version of this, and that it has already been producing results for a century. • Since 1975, climate change has been in Fast Forward.

  3. Low-tech suicide for societies? • Cutting down trees • Whether they burn or rot, that’s extra CO2 in air until replacements grow up. • Lose sink as well, so other CO2 sources have more of an effect on global temp.

  4. Two stable states

  5. 113 mph gusts in northern Utah More high winds are predicted for global warming. Utah I-15 wind 4/23/99 Credit: Marta Storwick/Standard-Examiner via Associated Press BRIGHAM CITY, Utah (AP) -- Winds gusting to more than 100 mph swept across northern Utah on Friday, overturning 20 tractor-trailers.…Winds reached 113 mph setting a state record….[4/23/99 Marta Storwick/Standard-Examiner]

  6. How to rearrange atmospheric circulation in only a few months All it takes is a big El Niño

  7. The Amazon is drying & burning under the influence of deforestation & climate-change-induced drought Nepstad et al., Forest Ecology & Management 154, 2001

  8. We’ve had big ENSOs (1982, 1997). We’ve had long ones (1991-1995) But what if the next big one is twice as long? We need a big safety margin up front to allow for the unexpected that could lose what maneuvering room we have.

  9. Amazon rain forest will NOT regrow. • Biofuels in drought. • Half of all Amazon species will go extinct.

  10. No reefs remaining by 2100

  11. Coccolithophores sink carbon when they die. Ocean Acidification and the Carbon Pump SEM photograph of E. hux The “Carbon pump” refers to CO2 incorporated into microalgae, consumed by zooplankton and salps, then sunk as shells or fecal pellets to the ocean floor, perhaps becoming limestone. Unlike forests that can burn or decompose in a drought, the carbon pump take carbon out of circulation for millions of years. Ocean acidification can kill off this pump.

  12. “The vacuum cleaner of the ocean” eats phytoplankton. Fecal pellets carry ex-CO2 carbon to the ocean floor Photo L. Madin, WHOI, shows a 10-centimeter individual of Salpa thompsoni .

  13. The microsnail Limacina, is a few millimeters in diameter (zooplankton). The shell sinks when they die, taking carbon out of circulation. But its shell may not form as well if increasing CO2 changes the ocean's pH. (Photo by Larry Madin, WHOI). http://www.whoi.edu/oceanus/viewPhotoArchive.do?gType=1&gallery=true&clid=2416

  14. Land heats twice as much as ocean, so windstrengths and patterns change.

  15. 40% by 2100 10% in 2007 20% by 2050

  16. 2005 broke the 2002 record

  17. One week of melting atop WAIS, 2005

  18. The RED areasshow the land covered by a 6m/20ft rise in sea level, what is expected from the 3°C/5°F temperature rise this century.

  19. Hot Dry Rockgeothermal • This big drill rig, in a suburb of Basel, drilled a 5 km deep well in late 2006.

  20. The steam plant up top is about the size of a two story parking garage.

  21. Three technologies, in combination, could solve the 2020 part of the problem. Plug-in hybrid vehicles so daily commute was entirely from the electrical grid.Retire most supertankers.. Start building enough nuclear or geothermal power plants to retire most coal trains. Subsidize DC power transmission lines to countries apt to modernize using their own coal or oil. DO THIS WORLDWIDE, and emissions growth will stop by 2020 and limit Earth’s fever to 2°C. (= 4°C in the interior = 8°F).

  22. The public interest requires doing today those things that men of intelligence and goodwill would wish, five or ten years hence, had been done. – Edmund Burke

  23. Nimble and ponderous • So that’s the bind that I see for the future of our intelligence. Likely similar elsewhere. Imagine where we’d be without the science satellites. • It now looks as if the lifetime of our civilization could be shortened, with an terrible aftermath that would make a recovery very slow. • It’s as if a special intelligence test has been set for us. Use it quickly or lose lots.

  24. The End My books and talks may be found at: WilliamCalvin.com Edvard Munch, The Scream

  25. from the Economist 2007

  26. How deserts expand. The Hadley Cells are enlarging

  27. Extent of deforestation

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