RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALS Projections to 2050

1. RENEWABLE ENERGY POTENTIALSProjections to 2050 BASED ON THE PRESENTATION of Mohamed El-Ashry Chairman REN 21 3rd Ministerial Meeting in Gleneagles Dialogue, Berlin, September 10, 2007

2. main questions concerning medium/long term trendsRENEWABLE ENERGY • A) What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term? • B) Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term? • C) What will bethe driving forceof a clean technology revolution based on RET?

3. What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term? A) OPPORTUNITIES • Very high potential overall— no resource constraint. • Markets • RET could satisfy global electricity and heat demand. • Technical potential of bioenergy is not sufficient to displace fossil fuels entirely in the transport sector. • Share of RET is dependent on demands (peak / background or continuous supply)

4. What opportunities do renewable energy technologies (RETs) offer to major markets in the medium-and long-term? A) OPPORTUNITIES (CONTD.) • Regions • Sufficient renewable energy resource potential in every region is naturally present. • Some regions are rich in specific resource: • HYDROPOWER in Asia • BIOMASS crops in eastern Europe and the former Soviet Union • ONSHORE WIND in North America • SOLAR(CSP&PV) in Africa and the Middle East • GEOTHERMAL in Asia and Latin America • OCEAN POWER in Asia, North America, and Oceania

5. HYDRO Hoover Dam (USA, Nevada) 2080 MW = ~2GW (1931-36) 4.2 GWh / year Three Gorges Dam (China, ) 22500 MW (1994-2008!) 80 -100 000 GWh/year (~100TWh)

6. HYDRO • Three Gorges Dam (China) • 22500 mW (1994-2008!) 80 -100 000 GWh/year (~100TWh) • ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACT (+/-): • NEGChanging landscape • POS According to the National Development and Reform Commission of China, 366 grams of coal would produce 1 kWh of electricity during 2006. • At full power, Three Gorges Dam: • - Reduces coal consumption by 31 Mt/y • Avoiding: • 100 Mt greenhouse gas emissions, • millions of tonnes of dust, • 1 Mt of sulfur dioxide, • 370,000 tonnes of nitric oxide, • 10,000 tonnes of carbon monoxide, • and a significant amount of mercury. • Hydropower saves the energy needed to mine, wash, and transport the coal from northern China.

7. SOLAR CSP concentratig solar power S20 and PS10 in Andalusia, Spain Solucar PS10 is the first solar thermal power plant based on tower in the world that generate electric)

8. SOLAR PS20 and PS10 in Andalusia, Spain

9. GEOTHERMAL ICELAND On >1150mW thermal capacity, ~580mW installed up to 2010 150mW / 76mW: 1976 150mW / 60mW: 1977 300mW / 120mW: 1990 150mW / 100mW: 2006 400mW / 213mW: 2010 Svartsengi Power Station 150mW geothermal capacity 76mW installed (start 1976) Geothermal power plant in Reykjavik, Iceland Nesjavellir Power Station 300mW geothermal capacity 120mW installed (start 1990)

10. WIND POWER Wind power installed in Europe by end of 2010

11. WIND WIND POWER • According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) report of February 2011, • there are over 12,000 wind turbines in Europe • with a total capacity of 84 GW. • The European Union accounts for over 98% of that total. • In 2010, €12.7 billion was invested in EU wind farms and • 9.3 GW of new power capacity was installed. • 9.1% of the total energy capacity of the EU now comes from wind, up from just 2.2% in 2000. • In a normal wind year, 5.3% of the EU's electricity is produced from wind power. • As of January 2011, offshore wind farms account for approximately 3.5% of capacity. • There are 1,136 offshore turbines installed, totalling 2.9GW in 45 wind farms in 9 countries.

12. WIND WIND POWER According to the European Wind Energy Association (EWEA) report of February 2011, The EWEA estimates that 230GW of wind capacity will be installed in Europe by 2020, (190GW onshore + 40GW offshore. This would produce 14-17% of the EU's electricity, avoiding 333 million tonnes of CO2 per year and saving Europe €28 billion a year in avoided fuel costs.

13. WIND WIND POWER • Wind power today, in an average wind year, generates the equivalent of • - over 20% of Denmark’s electricity use • 25–30% of that in three German Länder, • and on windy days with light loads, over 100% of the load in certain regions, particularly in West Denmark, North Germany, and northern Spain. EXAMPLE of DANISH WIND POWER PLANTS see in separate slides!

14. Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term? B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 • Electricity

15. Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term? B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.) • Heating and Cooling

16. Can RETs realistically become the large scale low carbon solution in the medium-and long-term? B) RENEWABLE ENERGY MARKET SHARE BY 2050 (CONTD.) • Transport Fuels

17. $70.9bn $49.6bn $27.5bn 2004 2005 2006 What will bethe driving forceof a clean technology revolution based on RET? GLOBAL INVESTMENT IN CLEAN ENERGY2004 - 2006 43% Growth 80% Growth Source: New Energy Finance Grossed-up estimate based on disclosed deals. New investment only.

18. What will bethe driving forceof a clean technology revolution based on RET? C) DRIVERS FOR A RETREVOLUTION • Costs (of production & installing & maintain) • Capital (investments , since produciton „good deal”) • Climate safe technology (Mte CO2, against non-renewables)