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ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE

ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE. Presentation by: Don C. MacIver A/Director, Adaptation and Impacts Group (AIRG), Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada don.maciver@ec.gc.ca. Vision

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ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE

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  1. ADAPTING TO A CHANGING CLIMATE Presentation by:Don C. MacIver A/Director, Adaptation and Impacts Group (AIRG), Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada, Downsview, Ontario, Canada don.maciver@ec.gc.ca

  2. Vision Canadians become well-adapted to current and future changes in the atmosphere and prosper by making adjustments in their social, economic and environmental activities. Mission Statement To provide scientific expertise and leadership to Canadians on the environmental, social and economic risks, vulnerabilities, impacts and adaptations associated with atmospheric variability and change

  3. ATMOSPHERIC RESEARCH ADVISORY BOARD ADAPTATION & IMPACTS RESEARCH GROUP AIRG (MSC-ACSD) DIRECTOR DECISION-MAKERS ADVISORY BOARD SPECIAL PROJECTS ADMINISTRATIVE COORDINATOR CICS CIDA UNIV. OF VICTORIA UNIV. OF REGINA OURANOS UNIV. OF BRITISH COLOMBIA UNIV. OF REGINA UNIV. OF TORONTO YORK UNIVERSITY UNIV. WATERLOO U.N.B. UQUAM OTTAWA GLOBAL/ REGIONAL CLIMATE SCENARIOS REMOTE/LOCAL CLIMATE OBSERVATIONS ADAPTATION POLICY & SOCIO- ECONOMIC RESEARCH INTEGRATED ADAPTATION MODELS HIGH IMPACT WEATHER/ CLIMATE WATER RESOURCES HUMAN HEALTH BIODIVERSITY MSC LABS GREAT LAKES PROGRAM NWRI MSC REGIONS FEDERAL/ PROV./MUNIC. STAKE- HOLDERS AGRIC. FORESTRY PARKS MSC LABS MSC REGION NRCAN SAIB PIAB WATERSHED COMMUNITIES MSC LABS HEALTH CANADA MSC LABS MSC REGIONS OURANOS

  4. AIRG - Adaptation and Impacts Research Profile Who Scientists Canadians Communities Governments Private Sector Scale Site Local Regional National International Actions Technology Regulatory Institutional Economic Behavior Timing Anticipatory (pro-active) Responsive (reactive) Engagement Forecast and Preventive Natural and Autonomous Adaptation and Impacts Group Performance Indicators: • 1 million in external research funding–CCAF, PERD, CIDA, OCIPEP, Health Canada … • Scientists are invited lead and contributing authors for international science assessments (eg. IPCC, IJC...), authors of books/ publications, keynote speakers, members of expert teams, Adjunct Professors … • AIRG peer-reviewed publications – 52 in last 3 years plus book chapters and International Assessment Chapters

  5. Results Management/Accountability Framework Examples of AIRG Clients/Partners Network MSC R &D Strategy Vulnerabilities (0-14 days) ScienceCommunity Policy Community Public Community (all Canadians) Private Sector Community Names/ Organization No of Partners Names/ Organization No of Partners Names/ Organization No of Partners Names/ Organization No of Partners TOTAL2083 Vulnerabilities (scenarios) climate change TOTAL120502018 Vulnerabilities (past & current) climate variabilities and extremes TOTAL3425104

  6. Climate Change Impacts Research “Helping Understand the Threats and Opportunities” Natural and Human-induced Climates and Climate Change Science, Policy, Public Questions Proxy Climate Models, Variabilities and Extremes Ice Cores, Tree-rings, Chemistry ... Current Climate Models, Variabilities and Extremes Remote and Earth-based Observations GHG Emissions Population, energy, economic models Atmospheric Concentrations Carbon Cycle and Chemistry Models Global Climate ChangeModel Outputs Coupled global climate models Regional Climates and Climate Change Model Outputs Scenarios, Statistical-based Analysis, Downscaling, Mapping Impacts Models and Assessments Water Resources, High Impact Weather, Human Health, Food Security, Biodiversity, Co-Benefits, Socio-Economic ...

  7. Climate Change Adaptation Research “Helping make the right decisions - based on sound science” Climate/Climate Change Impacts, Assessments and Policy Research Communicating the Science, Science Advice, Int. Conventions Mitigation Measures Kyoto/ GHG reduction targets Adaptation Adjustments Responses/co-benefits/alternatives Adaptation Strategies Kyoto/reduce vulnerabilities/uncertainties Adaptation Options Models Multi-Criteria, Markal, Fractal, Neural, ... Adaptation-Application Models Meteorological, Biophysical, Socio-Economic, Energy, Transportation, Human Health, Biodiversity,Urban ... User Communities and their Decision Needs Science, Policy, Public and Private Sector Needs (Iterative Process)

  8. What do they adapt to (and why)? THE ADAPTATION CYCLE Who or what System adapts? How do they adapt? System changesAdaptive capacity How well do they adapt? What impacts Result?

  9. ADAPTATION Stakeholders Traditional, Current and Future Knowledge-Information-Data-Models Adaptation Science Research/ Scenarios Monitoring/Data Management Assessments Adaptive Management Socio-economic sectors Ecosystems/Species Integrated assessments Adaptation Options Reduce vulnerabilities Enhance opportunities Options assessments Science Understanding Prediction Society Communication Education Decision-Makers Global Conventions/National Strategies Implementation

  10. Meteorological Service of Canada, Environment Canada Thank you to NRCAN - CCAF

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