1. Adapting to Climate Change Programme Mark Filley 2 March 2011

2. Overview

3. Adaptation Mitigation: Protecting climate from society Adaptation: Protecting society from climate

4. IPCC Emission Scenarios High Medium Low World Stabilisation Scenario (peak emissions at 2016 followed by 4%l decrease pa) We’re locked in to climate change – but how much depends on future emissions Global Average Temperatures Action to mitigate worst case emissions Global average temperature rise (ºC) Some change is certain Action can be taken now to adapt to the residual risks 4

5. Another way of showing a changing climate which begins to bring in impacts Our built and natural environments are not ready Now or in the future? University of Bremen

6. ADAPTATION SUB-COMMITTEE: September 2010 report highlights a range of priority areas for future action on adaptation LAs - Ensure that new buildings and infrastructure are sited in areas that minimise exposure to flood risk - Enhance green space in the design of towns and cities Land-use planning - Ensure CNI can cope with rising temperatures and increases in extreme weather events - Take account of changing consumer demand – e.g. in energy and water use, travel and consumption National infrastructure LAs Buildings - Appropriate use of construction materials and better design to cope with rising temperatures and floods LAs - Using water more efficiently - Improving/extending ecological networks so species can adapt and move as the climate changes Natural Resources LAs • - Anticipate extreme weather events more effectively • Create plans to reduce impact on vulnerable groups • - Develop business continuity plans so companies cope better with disruption to their supply chains Emergency planning 6

7. Our response to these changes will need to be varied and based on evidence Proportionate action with decisions at the right level • Do we: • Live with change • Retreat from change • Increase resilience to change • Protect against change • Benefit from change • Impacts will vary: • Geography • Land use • Economic sectors • Demographic • Etc. proportionate and timely response best designed at the local level

8. Smart businesses are planning for risks and taking opportunities failure to adapt effectively to the physical impacts of climate change could cost the regional economy a minimum of £600 million (1.5 per cent GVA) per annum by 2050 Each £1 spent on adaptation represents 4 times its value in potential damages avoided (Source: OECD 2009 modelling suggests) A McKinsey case study of Hull estimated that around 65% of the loss expected to 2030 could be averted through adaptation measures whose economic benefits outweigh their costs Climate North East regional study on Economic Implications of Climate Change: adapting to the physical impacts of climate change could provide a benefit to cost ratio of seven to one HSBC: “There is no question that climate change will continue to impact our customers and our own operations” Appointed Sir Nicholas Stern as Special Advisor on Economic Development and Climate Change PepsiCo working with Climate East, Suffolk County Council, Environment Agency and Anglian Water to protect Copella apple juice production

9. Overview

10. Adaptation needs to happen at a local and national level ‘Tackling and adapting to climate change is a top priority for this Government – at home and internationally.’ Secretary of State for Department of Environment, Food and Rural Affairs, Sept 2010 High level Government direction across all policies • Big Society • Horizon shift • Localism • Control Shift

11. Defra leads across Government in setting a national framework for adaptation Phase 1: 2008-2011 • Evidence • Raising Awareness • Ensuring Progress • Government Process • Phase 2: 2012 and beyond • National Adaptation Programme to respond to Climate Change Risk Assessment

12. And this framework has 5 key milestones

13. Overview

14. Second milestone was the projections of UK climate • The UK Climate Projections 2009 • World leading science • A range of futures – 3 emission scenarios up to 2099 • Probabilities – not a weather forecast • Training & guidance available • Maps of the UK for: • Temperature • Rainfall • Sea level • on a 25 x 25 km grid

15. As an example, we can show projections of rainfall in the UK over the century Winter rainfall Summer rainfall 2080s 2080s Regional differences mean the south and coastal areas could experience the greatest impact Regional differences mean the south and coastal areas will have the greatest impact Wider range is -56% to +13% Wider range is -4% to +67% Map and boxes show central estimates under a medium emissions scenario. “Wider range” is low emissions (10%) to high emissions (90%) range. 15

16. Third Milestone is the Climate Change Risk Assessment

17. Timetable for submission of the CCRA and leading to the NAP CCRA Technical Sector Reports Health, Energy Transport, Built Environment Business, Agriculture Water, Flood and coast Fisheries / Marine Forestry, Biodiversity CCRA Technical Summary reports ASC Advice and July Report DA and Regional elements added International impacts report Adaptation Economic Assessment CCRA Published NAP Published Infrastructure reports Reporting Power Reports Covering organisations: Energy and Water companies Regulators Transport and Maritime Bodies Environment Bodies and other Public Bodies

18. The final milestone: the National Adaptation Programme 2012 Anticipated structure

19. Proposed themes for National Adaptation Programme

20. ACC has other key projects – including one on infrastructure • Infrastructure vulnerable to impacts of climate change (e.g. 2007 summer floods, Cockermouth) • Government report Adapting National Infrastructure to be published in Spring: how to increase resilience of energy, transport and water infrastructure to long-term impacts • Findings: • Climate change presents serious economic risk, UK should take steps to adapt • Infrastructure at technical and operational risk from climate change, exacerbated by interdependencies across different infrastructure • Need to look at both existing assets (maintenance regimes) and new assets (design, build and operation)

21. Defra works with a range of partners to deliver evidence, build capacity, and measure the progress of adaptation

22. Renewing our delivery model for adaptation advice and support • Strong support from external stakeholders and experts for the need to sustain and strengthen current delivery to drive real adaptation on the ground (ASC, EAC, RCEP, CBI) • Ministers have publicly signalled intention to continue provision in this area (Strategic Statement, Sept ‘10) • Research suggests delivery to date has raised awareness, but achieved more limited impact in terms of practical action • Stakeholder engagement shows that support needs are shifting – future delivery should target key sectors with tailored, practical advice • New delivery model will consolidate existing funding streams and secure more streamlined partnership delivery of advice and support

23. Overview

24. As the climate changes, the way weather affects us will change ASC: timely adaptation measures “may reduce damages from climate change by roughly half for moderate amounts of warming” • Land use planning • National infrastructure • Buildings • Natural resources • Emergency planning

25. Local government work to date • Data collected for two years – shows positive shift: • Year 1: 93% of LAs at Level 0 or 1 • Year 2: 86% at Level 1 or 2 •  75% moved up a level • But few are at stage of implementing adaptation plans • Now, the relationship with central government is changing: • Needs to reflect the new approaches introduced by localism, decentralisation and the Big Society • Needs to work within the challenging financial environment

26. What is ACC doing? • Working with the Local Government Group – two-way dialogue • Refreshing the Local and Regional Adaptation Partnership Board (LRAP) • Working with the 9 English Climate Change Partnerships (RCCPs) • Local level involvement in developing the UK Climate Change Risk Assessment • Local government the key customer in our delivery model review • Streamlining with Natural England and the Environment Agency • Working directly with local authorities through Defra’s Total Environment initiative • Discussing the role of the Adaptation Sub-Committee - it is taking a keen interest in the key role of local government in local adaptation • Contributing to the Natural Environment and Water White Papers, and across Whitehall e.g. Public Health and Sub-National Growth White Papers, Localism Bill • Working out how to best facilitate local government input into the National Adaptation Programme

27. Adapting to Climate Change Programme Thank you Mark Filley