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Discussion Paper

Discussion Paper Multifactor Productivity Contributions of U.S. Non-Manufacturing Industry Groups: 1987‑2005 by Michael J. Harper, Bhavani Khandrika, Randal Kinoshita and Steven Rosenthal U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 1, 2008.

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Discussion Paper

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  1. Discussion Paper Multifactor Productivity Contributions of U.S. Non-Manufacturing Industry Groups: 1987‑2005 by Michael J. Harper, Bhavani Khandrika, Randal Kinoshita and Steven Rosenthal U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics May 1, 2008

  2. A Brief History of Multifactor Productivity at BLS

  3. 1990s Attention to Weak Service Sector Data • Griliches AEA address • Boskin Commission • Corrado-Slifman [1999] • New data have become available in recent years

  4. BEA – BLS Collaboration on “Production Accounts” • Input part of national accounts • FHPY: Fully integrated set of detailed data from which many types of industry and aggregate measures emerge • Current agenda includes expanding aggregate measures, comparing industry measures and filling in industry accounts

  5. Sectoral Output

  6. Complete Elements of The Nominal Production Account

  7. Add the Time Element : • Distinguish “p”s and “q”s

  8. Aggregates: Real Accounting Definition: AT = ST - NIT = Aggregate MFP Results: AT =Sj=1n(VYj/VST)Aj (Domar [1961]) Sj=1n (VYj/VST) = 1 + +Sj=1mSj=1nSj=1nVNi,j,k/VST

  9. Negative MFP Trends • Counts of industries with (-) MFP trends: • 1987-2005 16 of 42 • 2000-2005 13 of 42 • 1977-1997 13 of 32 --- GH [2002] • Limited comparability – there is now more detail in services

  10. Negative Productivity Trends • Effects on private business trend of raising (-) to zero: • 1987-2000 +0.27 • 2000-2005 +0.19 • 1977-1997 +0.3 --- GH [2002] • 1977-1992 +0.4 --- GH [1999] • 1977-1997 +0.4 --- Corrado -Slifman[1999] (labor productivity)

  11. Negative MFP Trends • Counts of industries with (-) trends where BLS DIPS has coverage: • 1987-2005 2 of 11 • 2000-2005 2 of 11 • Counts of industries with (-) trends where BLS DIPS lacks coverage: • 1987-2005 14 of 31 • 2000-2005 11 of 31

  12. Measuring Non-Manufacturing Productivity Are we there yet?We may be closer

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