1 / 8

Dependent variable: Vote

Dependent variable: Vote. Share of two-party vote Share of popular vote Share of Electoral college 1-0 variable for Win-lose Coolidge adjustment. Data run . Most recent back to… Smith Fair – two versions 1948 Full Employment Act. Growth rate. Three quarters prior Per capita Real GDP.

emery
Télécharger la présentation

Dependent variable: Vote

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. Dependent variable: Vote Share of two-party vote Share of popular vote Share of Electoral college 1-0 variable for Win-lose Coolidge adjustment

  2. Data run • Most recent back to… • Smith • Fair – two versions • 1948 Full Employment Act

  3. Growth rate • Three quarters prior • Per capita • Real GDP

  4. Inflation • Average rate over 15 Q • % change in GDP deflator • Inflation-deflation symmetric • War adjustment

  5. Good news • # of Qs in previous 15 with g > 3.2 • War adjustment

  6. Duration • 1 term = 0 • 2 terms = 1 • 3 terms = 1.25 • 4 terms = 1.50 • 5 terms = 1.75

  7. Person • 1 if sitting president running • Includes VP becoming President • Ford exception

  8. Party • 1 = Democrat • -1 = Republican

More Related