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Environmental change, and migration: Policy options for Europe

“Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks “. Environmental change, and migration: Policy options for Europe Dr. Koko Warner Section Head Social Vulnerability and Environmental Migration UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany. Overview.

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Environmental change, and migration: Policy options for Europe

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  1. “Advancing human security through knowledge-based approaches to reducing vulnerability and environmental risks“ EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  2. Environmental change, and migration: Policy options for Europe Dr. Koko WarnerSection Head Social Vulnerability and Environmental Migration UNU-EHS Bonn, Germany EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  3. Overview • Part 1: Does environmental change and migration affect Europe? • Trends • Migration as adaptation or measure of last resort? • Part 2: Global challenges, European policy alternatives • Act now: address problems at the source • Act later: humanitarian crisis • Outlook EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  4. Does environmentally induced migration affect Europe? • 2 issues on global agenda, discussed separately • Climate change and environmental degradation • Migration • How are they linked? • How many will migrate? • Estimates vary from at least 24 million today to 700 million by 2050 • Climate change & migration challenge • The IPCC says less developed regions are especially vulnerable to impacts of environmental change • „Climate change has serious implications on international peace and security, including migration.“ • UN General Assembly Thematic Debate, 11-12 Feb. 2008 EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  5. Environmental changeand migration: Hotspots & Trajectories (WGBU 2007) Main trajectories EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008 Source: WGBU 2007 (modified)

  6. What does environmental change & migration mean for Europe? EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  7. 7 November 1998 The Guardian, London What has changed in 10 years? Source: The Guardian 7 November 1998, Courtesy of Terry Cannon EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  8. The danger of „Us“ vs. „Them“ Who stands to lose more? Source: Material World: A Global Family Portrait (Menzel 1994) • People worldwide face risk of losing life, livelihoods, home. • The ability to cope with these risks differs from place to place. • Some people migrate, some try to stay and „muddle through“. • What are the options? EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  9. Europe is at the forefront of environmentally-induced migration. There is no turning away from the problem, but there are choices to be made how to move forward. Here are two alternatives. EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  10. Act now: Address environmental change at the source • Help people • Stay at home (?) • Find a new place (?) • Help improve environmental conditions • Help manage risk • Help foster sustainable development Source: EACH-FOR project, Marc Stal 2007 EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  11. Act later: Humanitarian crisis Photo courtesy of Thomas Loster, Munich Re Foundation EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  12. What actions must be taken? Europe has the opportunity to lead in policy and practice: • Science • Awareness • Legislation • Humanitarian assistance • Institutional EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  13. Conclusions • Environmental factors currently contribute to migration, this affects Europe. • Europe can choose to act now, and stem a tide of environmental change and migration. • Alternatively, Europe can choose to act later, and deal with humanitarian crisis on a large scale. • We must address migration in the face of climate change TODAY for human security in Europe and for Europe´s neighbors tomorrow EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

  14. Thank you. Dr. Koko Warner warner@ehs.unu.edu Tel: +49 228 815 0226 www.ehs.unu.edu EFMSV Germanwatch Session “Climate change, migration and European Foreign Policy – the need for scientific conceptualisation” Bonn, Germany Thursday, 9 October, 2008

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