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2014 Law & Citizenship Conference

2014 Law & Citizenship Conference. Ohio Center for Law-Related Education.

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2014 Law & Citizenship Conference

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  1. 2014 Law & Citizenship Conference Ohio Center for Law-Related Education

  2. Campaigns, Elections, and the MediaBecause candidates can’t meet with every constituent, what voters know about politicians and campaigns comes to them almost entirely from the media. How do media shape elections? What is the relationship between the media, candidates, and election coverage?

  3. Before we can give you the information, we have to get it ourselves. But…No debatesLimited access, especially Gov. KasichGubernatorial candidates no longer talking to us at any length, say we have to rely on campaign spokespersons

  4. Some of what we’ve done so far…1. Insight major issues series: jobs/economy; taxes/budgeting; education; “hot button” issues2. Profiled lieutenant governor candidates3. Shown how faith of Kasich/FitzGerald plays a role in their decision-making4. Numerous stories on campaign events on local government funding, higher education5. Ad watches or stories on new commercials6. Profiled local congressional races (last week)7. Profiled statewide downticket races (this wk)8. Voters Guide, put in central Ohio ZIP and get your ballot (coming end of month)9. Covering battle over early voting

  5. IN THE UNITED STATES DISTRICT COURTFOR THE SOUTHERN DISTRICT OF OHIOEASTERN DIVISIONOHIO STATE CONFERENCE OF THENATIONAL ASSOCIATION FOR THEADVANCEMENT OF COLOREDPEOPLE, et al.,Plaintiffs,v.JON HUSTED, et al.,Defendants.Case No. 2:14-cv-404Judge Peter C. EconomusMagistrate Judge Norah McCann King

  6. Not to mention… • Broke story about Ed FitzGerald found by police with a woman not his wife in a parked car at 4:30 a.m. in October 2012 • Broke story about Ed FitzGerald not having a regular driver’s license

  7. Were those incidents important?% in Dispatch Poll less likely to vote for FitzGerald because of:Car incident: 44%No driver’s license: 51%

  8. Polling pointersDiffering methodologiesNot predictive – “snapshot in time”Likely voter = holy grail

  9. What AAPOR Thinks You Should Know1. Who did the poll? Who paid for it?2. When was it done?3. Who was sampled?4. How were respondents contacted?5. What is sampling error?6. Why are data weighted?7. How is the question worded?8. How are the questions ordered?

  10. The Dispatch Poll-It’s not supposed to work (self-selected respondents)-But those who return poll = LV-OK since sample chosen randomly

  11. Dispatch Poll track record2012: Final presidential poll matched election night total; Nate Silver says nation’s most accurate single-state poll2010: 2-point Kasich margin in final poll was same as election2008: Within 1 point of Obama’s and McCain’s’ Ohio totals

  12. But also…2006: Actual winners were same as poll winners except one, but the poll’s margins were too high2005: Poll forecast easy passage of Reform Ohio Now amendments; oopsStatistically: 1/20 polls blow up

  13. Are we sure…Because candidates can’t meet with every constituent, what voters know about politicians and campaigns comes to them almost entirely from the media…

  14. The Reality, 1.0 Declining newspaper circulation (although much greater web use)Declining newspaper staffsCutbacks in Ohio Statehouse bureausCommon Core dichotomy

  15. The Reality, 2.0Back in the day…maybe 3 channels…Walter Cronkite “that’s the way it is.”Now hundreds of channels, talk radio, internet, blogs, mobile accessMultiple sources…who consumes Fox Newsvs. MSNBC vs. NPR…vs. SNS like Facebook, Twitter, you name it

  16. Pew study from 2012 election45% used their smartphone to read other people’s comments on a social networking site about a candidate or the campaign in general35% used their smartphoneto look up whether something they just heard about a candidate or the campaign in general was true18% used their smartphone to post their own comments on a social networking site about a candidate or the campaign

  17. 48% of internet-using registered voters watch video news reports online about elections/politics40% watch previously recorded videos online of speeches, press conferences or debates39%watch informational videos online that explain a political issue37%watch humorous or parody videos online dealing with political issues36%watch political ads online28%watch live videos online of candidate speeches, press conferences, or debates

  18. The process of discovering political videos online is highly social. Some 62% of internet-using registered voters (52% of all registered voters) had others recommend online videos about the election or politics to them.  On the flip side, 23% of internet-using registered voters (19% of all registered voters) have themselves encouraged others to watch online videos related to political issues.http://www.pewinternet.org/fact-sheets/politics-fact-sheet/

  19. Two truths1. TV advertising still main way voters find out about candidates…for now2. But more and more often, candidates are choosing voters almost as much as voters are choosing candidates.Political orgs aren’t quite the NSA yet…but you may be surprised by how much information political organizations have on you…and how they have fine-tuned such traits as what kind of car you own or whether you have a hunting/fishing license and connected it with political behavior

  20. But how much do people care?-OHIO VOTER TURNOUT-1998 – 49.8%2002 – 47.2%2006 – 53.3%2010 – 49.2%2014 - ???

  21. No difference???**2010 gubernatorial election decided:1. whether billions in state taxes would be cut2. whether Ohio would build high-speed 3C passenger rail3. if funding to schools and local governments would be cut4. how funds are divvied up among school districts, and how much would go to charter schools5. whether to require work activities to get food stamps 6. whether there would be new restrictions on abortion7. how closely fracking would be regulated8. if state’s economic development public or private9. how readily public records would be made available 10. whether more state services/facilities such as prisons would be privatizedAnd SB 5, early voting limits, Ohio health exchange, etc.

  22. Web resourcessos.state.oh.us/SOS/elections.aspxvotesmart.org/lwvohio.org/franklincountyconsortium.com/realclearpolitics.compollingreport.comaapor.org/For_Media/6015.htm#.VB9Dhyf7fXomoritzlaw.osu.edu/election-law/commentary/free-and-fair/dispatch.com/politics

  23. THANK YOU!!!!!!!!!!!!!! darrelrowlandPublic Affairs EditorThe Columbus Dispatchdrowland@dispatch.com

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