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Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies

Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies. James F. Fee, Adhva Adhva.com. Basic Concepts. Where do products come from? What do I mean by competition? How groups of customers become markets Finding parallel universes Modeling markets that don’t exist

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Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies

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  1. Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies James F. Fee, Adhva Adhva.com Adhva

  2. Basic Concepts • Where do products come from? • What do I mean by competition? • How groups of customers become markets • Finding parallel universes • Modeling markets that don’t exist • Disruptive vs. new products/markets Adhva

  3. Where do products come from? • Knock-off – copy an existing product or service –sell at a lower price to existing customers • Incrementally improve an existing product – this is what engineers are hired to do • Develop a product to address your own need – how many of you are there? • Develop or utilize a new material, compound or service that has unique characteristics – find a market & develop a product Adhva

  4. The World of your New Product New Product or Service (A) Existing Product or Service (B) Customers New Corp Competitors Customers Customers Money Money Adhva

  5. Comparing A with B • A and B could be equivalent • Laptop Dell or HP • A and B are different but with same function • Transportation to work Car or Bicycle • A and B could be totally different • Entertainment Trip to Europe or Home Theater • However money is money • Competition is not for the product – it’s for the money Adhva

  6. Key Takeaway • Your product and it’s benefits may be unique but there is always competition for the money • Please never say that there is no competition Adhva

  7. The World of your New Product Product or Service A Product or Service B Customers New Corp Competitors Customers Customers Money Money Market Adhva

  8. Customers and markets • Customers purchase products and services • Markets are collections of customers that have similar purchasing patterns • The same product may serve several very different markets Adhva

  9. Markets are societies / cultures • Made up of companies and individuals • There are leaders, followers and experts • They have their own dress and jargon • Annual gathering rituals • Detroit Auto Show – NY Toy Fair • American Heart Association – CES @ Las Vegas • Distribution channels • Business practices (typical business models) • Trade associations Adhva

  10. Simple example • As part of a project for a local company they wanted to know how big was the commercial market for their SNO PRO product • Main customers were new car dealerships Adhva

  11. National Auto Dealers Association Adhva

  12. Days supply of vehicles- 60 Average time to clean a vehicle* 5 to 6 / hr Average time to clean all of the vehicles* 3hr * My guess Modeling the market Adhva

  13. What do we need to know • How many SNO PROs customers? • How many are in snow areas? • How many SNO PROs per customer? • How many cars are on the lot • How long does it take to clean a car • How quick are all of the cars cleaned Adhva

  14. NOAA Snowfall Map Adhva

  15. Most important stepTEST your Model • I went to several dealerships • Talked to sales people • Who cleans the cars – they do • How long does it take them to do it • Estimate cars on the lot -etc. • Refine the model • Random data points improve your model Adhva

  16. Conclusion • Model was reasonably close to the actual sales data. • Current channels were reaching the available market Adhva

  17. Find the best fit customer / market / product • A business idea is like a jigsaw puzzle • You don’t know what you have until you put all of the pieces together • Customers • Markets • Competition Adhva

  18. Where do products come from? • Knock-off – copy an existing product or service –sell at a lower price to existing customers • Incrementally improve an existing product – this is what engineers are hired to do • Develop a product to address your own need – how many of you are there? • Develop or utilize a new material, compound or service that has unique characteristics – find a market & develop a product Adhva

  19. Do Your Homework • Learn about your • Customer • Market • Competition • Google is important but you must talk to people • The hardest part is not to sell but to listen Adhva

  20. Which comes first?The customer or the market • You need both • If you have customers talk to them • Ask them what related products do the buy? • From whom? • What publications, trade shows etc.? • If you don’t have customers then learn about the market • Create a customer profile Adhva

  21. Creating a customer profile for your new product • Who needs it? • Why do they need it? • Who purchases it? • What does it take to close the sale? • Where do customers buy it? Adhva

  22. Who needs it? • Everybody is not an answer • Bottoms up profile • You need to know your target customers better than your best friend. • Where do they live, how do they spend their money, what do they like and not like • Top down demographic info • X , Y generation • Dr., Lawyer, Banker – what kind of Dr. Adhva

  23. What does it take to close the first sale? • A laptop, cell phone and internet connection • Or $1M for product development and a $100K to launch a commercial product • Or $10M for product development, $10M for inventory and $10M national media launch of a consumer product Adhva

  24. Another Takeaway • Ideas are cheap and easy • The secret is to develop a mental screening process to quickly sort through ideas to find the good ones • The danger is that once you become emotionally involved in an idea, it is very hard to be rational Adhva

  25. Disruptive vs. new markets Mainframe Computers $100Ks 60% margins Direct sales Mini Computers $10K - $20K 40% margins OEM PCs $1K-$5K 20% margins Retail LCD Displays $200-$1000 Computer Channel CRTs $100-$500 Computer Channel Adhva

  26. Let’s talk about some of your ideas Adhva

  27. Finding Customers and Forecasting Markets for New and Disruptive Technologies James F. Fee, Adhva Adhva.com Adhva

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