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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Business, Workforce Development, and Consumer Markets

October 2013 . Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Business, Workforce Development, and Consumer Markets . James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill. OVERVIEW.

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Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Business, Workforce Development, and Consumer Markets

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  1. October 2013 Disruptive Demographics: Implications for Business, Workforce Development, and Consumer Markets James H. Johnson, Jr. Frank Hawkins Kenan Institute of Private Enterprise Kenan-Flagler Business School University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill

  2. OVERVIEW • Demographic Trends • Challenges & Opportunities • Discussion

  3. CENSUS 2010 what will REVEAL October 2013

  4. 6 DISRUPTIVE TRENDS • The South Rises – Again • The Browning of America • Marrying Out is “In” • The Silver Tsunami is About to Hit • The End of Men? • Cooling Water from Grandma’s Well… and Grandpa’s Too!

  5. The South Continues To Rise ...Again!

  6. SOUTH’S SHARE OF U.S. NET POPULATION GROWTH, SELECTED YEARS, 1910-2010

  7. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY REGION, 2000-2010

  8. SHARES OF NET POPULATION GROWTH BY REGION, 2000-2010

  9. NET MIGRATION TRENDS, 2000-2008 = Net Import = Net Export

  10. STATE SHARE OF SOUTH’S NET GROWTH, 2000-2010

  11. Population Change in Florida and Northwest Florida, 2000-2010

  12. GROSS AND NET MIGRATION FOR THE SOUTH, 2004-2010

  13. Balance of Population Change Equation • Population Change = In-Flows – Out-Flows whereIn-flows = [Births + In-Migrants] & Out-Flows =[Deaths + Out-Migrants]

  14. Typology of Communities

  15. Types of Communities in Florida Great Northwest Region

  16. Balanced Growth Counties, 2010-2012

  17. Natural Growth Communities, 2010-2012

  18. Migration Magnet, 2010-2012

  19. Emptying Out Communities, 2010-2012

  20. Biologically Declining, 2010-2012

  21. Dying Communities, 2010-2012

  22. THE “BROWNING” OF AMERICA

  23. The Numbers Legal Immigrants Refugees, Parolees, Asylees

  24. The Numbers Cont’d

  25. NON-IMMIGRANTS ADMITTED TO UNITED STATES, SELECTED YEARS, 1981-2011

  26. U.S. Immigrant Population, 1900-2011

  27. U.S. Foreign Born Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2011

  28. U.S. POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010

  29. NON-WHITE AND HISPANIC SHARES OF POPULATION GROWTH, 2000-2010

  30. MEDIAN AGE OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE, HISPANIC ORIGIN & GENDER, 2009

  31. TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007 Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010)

  32. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. BIRTHS BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Johnson and Lichter (2010); Tavernise (2011).

  33. RELATIVE DISTRIBUTION OF U.S. POPULATION BY RACE / ETHNICITY Source: Pew Research Center, 2008 *projected.

  34. GULF POWER SERVICE AREA POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010

  35. FLORIDA GREAT NORTHWEST REGION POPULATION CHANGE BY RACE & ETHNICITY, 2000-2010

  36. Nonwhite and Hispanic Shares of Population in Florida and the Florida Northwest Region

  37. Median Age and Fertility Rates for Females in Florida, 2007-2011 Fertility/1000 Demographic Group Median Age women* All Females 41.9 51 White, Not Hispanic 48.2 44 Black 32.4 60 American Indian & Alaskan Native 37.2 49 Asian 37.0 58 Native Hawaiian & Pacific Islander 32.6 109 Some other race 29.6 67 Two or more races 21.5 60 Hispanic 35.0 57 Native Born 40.1 48 Foreign Born 46.2 60 Source: www.census.gov *Women 15 to 50 with births in past 12 months.

  38. Marrying Out is “In”

  39. INTERMARRIAGE TREND, 1980-2008 % Married Someone of a Different Race/Ethnicity

  40. INTERMARRIAGE TYPES Newly Married Couples in 2008

  41. THE SILVER TSUNAMI

  42. Key Drivers • Changes in Longevity • Declining Fertility • Aging of Boomer Cohort

  43. LIFE EXPECTANCY AT BIRTH

  44. Centenarians in the U.S.

  45. COMPLETED FERTILITY FOR WOMEN 40 - 44 YEARS OLD

  46. TOTAL FERTILITY RATES OF U.S. WOMEN BY RACE/ETHNICITY, 2007

  47. THE “GREYING” OF AMERICA

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